Fantasy Football Tips #209: The Odds do not always mean what you think

Let me start right off the bat by saying that I am a big believer in using the Las Vegas Odds as a "Tool" to help decide starters; especially if all other means show them even.

For example, your 2 kicker choices are Nick Folk Dallas and Ryan Longwell Minnesota.
Previous analysis shows both kickers to be about even. Both are at home, kicking in a dome so no weather issues, etc. To help decide WDIS (who do I start) look at the odds.

Dallas is a -7 point favorite with over/under of 44.

Min is a +4 underdog with an over/under 50.

So the bookies think DAL will win 24-17 and MIN will lose 27-23. AHA you say go with Folk since he should score more points.

NOT SO FAST!

The odds are not what you think. They are not designed to be exactly what will happen in a game but rather are designed to draw the same amount of bets to both sides so that Vegas can win on the vig. The Vig (or "Juice" as it is sometimes referred to) is the commision on the bet.

If a bet in the U.S is straight up (lets say a coin toss of heads or tails). The sports book will charge 110 for the bet from both parties. A heads bet costs 110 and tails bet also 110. So the bookie will take in 220 and pay out 210 to the winner, keeping 10 as the vig or commission.
But if everyone is betting heads; the sportsbook will want to "encourage" others to bet tails so that in the event that Heads comes up they do not lose too much. So the line moves...

Most point spread bets are for 110 wagered which wins 100. So the 10 lost if you lose the bet is the vig.

Also note sports books often set the point spread at half a point so that there is always a winner and a loser so that the book can keep their commission (if their is a push-the teams tie based on the point spread-then all wagers get their money back).

One technique is to bet the favorite early and bet the underdog late. Why? Because as more bets are placed on the favourite, the odds become shorter since the bookies do not want you to keep betting on them. Conversely when wagering on the underdog, leaving it as late as possible will usually mean the odds on offer will increase and you get the best wager possible.

But what if the betting public really favors one team?
It has been shown that some teams take in more bets from the public in general. Dallas, Green Bay and Pittsburgh all are favored by their fans and generally take in more bets on them. The book makers know this and will set their odds as high as possible in some cases. So GB may be favored by 9 points when really they are only expected to win by 6 points but the book makers want to get more money on their opponent. This is called "Shading" the line.
Often it is more for the playoffs, Super Bowl or big National games.


Ok so I have digressed some. Lets review so far.

1) Most Sportsbooks would love to have the same amount wagered on each side. That way they make money on the vig and do not have to pay out more to one side or the other.

2) If a fan favorite is involved in a big game, the book makers may "shade" the line to their opponent since they know the public will bet "Dallas" no matter what.

3) If one team gets too many bets, the line may move to "encourage" more bets on the other team.

Conclusion: There are times when the line is not what Vegas thinks will happen; instead it is what Vegas needs to make the betting more equitable for Vegas.

So in our example above maybe Ryan Longwell is the one to go with if Dallas really has a shaded line. Just something to think about as we move closer to the big games.

Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($9.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669

Fantasy Football Guidebook: Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95 on sale for $17.95) http://www.amazon.com/1602640203

Fantasy Football Guidebook and Fantasy Football Tips featured as Holiday Gifts for 2009

Check out the latest press for Fantasy Football Guidebook and Fantasy Football Tips as they are both listed as great Holiday Gift ideas for 2009 at Nicole's Nickels.

See the link below for her reviews:

http://www.nicolesnickels.com/holidaygiftguide/?p=221

Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($9.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669

Fantasy Football Guidebook: Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95 on sale for $17.95) http://www.amazon.com/1602640203

Fantasy Football Guidebook-Author Q and A in Blogging 'Bout Boys

Books for Boys: Fantasy Football Guidebook

(As seen at http://www.bloggingboutboys.blogspot.com/)

'Tis the season -- for football!

Those football fans among you have probably been enjoying the season for weeks now (depending on your team). And the die-hard football fanatics are probably already well-aware of the phenomenon that is fantasy football. For the uninitiated, though, fantasy football is a game in which players "draft" real, live NFL players to be on their fanatasy teams. Their teams then score points based on how the players perform in their real-life football games.
Sam Hendricks, an avid fantasy football player with almost two decades of experience, shares his tips and tricks for fantasy football success in Fantasy Football Guidebook and Fantasy Football Tips. Fantasy Football Guidebook was a Finalist in the 2009 National Indie Excellence Book Awards and the 2008 USA Book News Best Books contest.

If you have a son interested in fantasy football, get him these books. They include everything, from Top 10 Reasons to Play Fantasy Football to 10 Rules of Trading to Observations to Let You Live a Normal Life While Enjoying Fantasy Football. One note: the word is a$$ is included at least once in the book. That's not a deal breaker for me, but something you might want to know before handing the books to your son.

On to the author Q & A!

How did you get interested in fantasy football? I loved NFL football but became very frustrated when the only matchups on TV were boring contests between weak teams. I wanted more excitement. A fellow aviator from my flying squadron (336th FS-we flew F-15E fighter jets for the USAF) suggested a “new” game called Fantasy Football and from that moment on I was hooked. I loved the ability to have different players from different teams (now I had a reason to watch those boring games because my players were in them and I had a vested interest). The more I played, the more I wanted to win and the more I wanted to learn everything about it. And it gave me a better appreciation of football too.

What's a good age to introduce a boy to fantasy football? Why? It depends on the maturity of the child, but I would say the earliest is around 7 or 8. At that age parents can share their enjoyment of watching football and the basic math skills of fantasy football can be introduced. Math skills such as addition (points for TDs), subtraction (lose points for INTs) and multiplication (multiple TDs) are easy to show and foster with fantasy football. Later at around age 12 or 13, the boys are getting more interested in sports and team play. Fantasy football is a great way to teach them good decision-making skills (who do you want vs. who is available at what time), problem-solving (when to switch players to maximize efficiency of the whole team), and also risks vs. rewards (choosing proven veterans over unproven high-priced rookies, etc.) It can be a good teaching tool if implemented correctly. The child learns that "owner" decisions have an immediate impact on the team and one player does not control the game.

A lot of people consider fantasy football "a waste of time," but there's a lot to it. It's fun, of course, but there's also statistics and critical thinking. Your book even includes anatomical info about common football injuries! Over 30 million people play fantasy football each year and the numbers keep growing. I have seen the media adapt to this ever increasing demographic as well. Most of the highlight/update reports now include players and their statistics at the bottom of the screen. Those statistics have even evolved from simply who scored the TD to how many catches they have, their yardage and TDs or injury status. This is because of the fantasy football fan! So opinion of fantasy football has moved from the obscure “waste of time” to a billion dollar industry as evidenced by the 20+ magazines devoted to this fascinating hobby. Fantasy Football Guidebook is my attempt to provide a comprehensive guide to playing fantasy football.

How can a parent support and nuture their son's interest in football and/or fantasy football? Parents can spend time with their child enjoying the game while noting the "mathematical" aspects of the game. Also, encourage their child to be a participant, either on an actual football team or in a fantasy football league. By encouraging participation, parents can nurture the interest and will be able to communicate with their child on subjects of mutual interest and appeal. Since Fantasy Football Guidebook came out, I have spoken with hundreds of parents who have told me about the “bonding” time that fantasy football has created. Fathers and sons are fielding teams together as co-managers and spending more time together deciding on strategies (who to start) and watching their players perform.

"Ask the Expert" Question: What one player should fantasy owners be most thankful for this season, and why?

Fantasy Football Index Magazine "Ask the Expert" Question for the week: What one player should fantasy owners be most thankful for this season, and why?

Hands down Brett Favre is my candidate. He has the Minnesota Vikings at 9-1 with a three game lead in the NFC North. The Vikes QB is No. 1 in the NFL in passer rating (112.1), No. 1 in fewest interceptions thrown (three), No. 2 in completion percentage (69.7) and No. 2 in touchdown passes (21). He is averaging 20 points per game in most leagues (7th best QB); not bad for someone going in the 11th round in many drafts.


ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly at www.fantasyindex.com with answers to a new question posted Thursday morning.

Sam Hendricks is the author of Fantasy Football Guidebook, Fantasy Football Tips and Fantasy Football Almanac 2009, all available at his website, http://www.ffguidebook.com/ , at all major bookstores, and at http://www.amazon.com/. He is a 19-year fantasy football veteran who regularly participates in the World Championship of Fantasy Football (WCOFF), National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) and finished 7th overall in the 2008 Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC).

Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($9.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669

Fantasy Football Guidebook: Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95 on sale for $17.95) http://www.amazon.com/1602640203

Ranked 6th overall in the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC)

FFGuidebook.com is currently ranked 6th Overall (out of 228) in the high stakes Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC, www.theFFPC.com) with 1671 points.

FFGuidebook.com is the League #10 "Joe Montana" Regular Season H2H champion with a 8-3 record and is the Total Points winner for the league as well. FFGuidebook.com wins $1,000 and earns an automatic berth to the Championship Round and a chance at the $75,000 Grand Prize in Weeks 14, 15 and 16.

Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($9.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669

Fantasy Football Guidebook: Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95 on sale for $17.95) http://www.amazon.com/1602640203

Week 11 Results for FFGuidebook.com

Week 11 Results for FFGuidebook.com.
How did we do in Week 11? Lets look at all leagues and results.

First a Recap: Went 7-3 in my 10 leagues (64-45-1 for the year). Won in the FFPC Main Event to clinch the #1 seed as the Regular Season League Champ with best H2H record of 8-3 and the most points scored as well. Overall a great week with a strong showing and the 3 losses coming in 1 Expert League, 1 DraftMaster League and a Rapid Draft Free league.

Leagues This weeks Result/Overall Ranking (W/L or TP)BOLD = improvement

Fantasy Football Players Championship“Joe Montana”Main Event League #10 Win 8-3 /1st place regualr season finish and #1 seed (1st in TP/6th of 228)

FFPC $125 Satellite League #27 Win /3rd place

Local Lakenheath League Win 10-1 /First Place

Rapid Draft FantasyFootballTips Loss 6-4-1 /3rd

Rapid Draft FFGuidebook.com Win 8-3 /1st place finish at the end of the Regular Season

Fantasy Sports Magazine Expert League 2 Win 3-8/ 11th (Injuries to C Portis, D Owens hurt, although I am 3rd in the league in Total Points scored so my 3-8 H2H record appears to be really bad luck in the scheduling department as I have several games while outscoring most of the other teams)

Fantasy Draftbook.com Expert League Loss 5-6/ 8th

FFPC Pros vs Joe’s DraftExperts (Draftmasters) Win 8th

Fantasy Index Expert Auction (Draftmasters) Win 4th

FFPC 77 DraftExperts (Draftmasters) Loss 7th
-------------------------------------------------
7-3 (64-45-1 overall)

NOTE in DraftMaster/Expert leagues that are not H2H a win is defined as beating half of the opponents scores for the week.

Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($9.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669

Fantasy Football Guidebook: Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95 on sale for $17.95) http://www.amazon.com/1602640203

Fantasy Football Tips #208: Plan for three seasons...not one

The entire Fantasy Football season can really be broken down into three (and sometimes more) parts. You should plan for and think of each of these parts as a separate season.

What are the parts?

1) The regular season (usually anywhere from 11-13 weeks)
2) The Playoffs (normally 2 or 3 weeks)
3) The League Championship Game (or the FF Super bowl) (Should be week 16)

NOTE: The parts mentioned above are for the conventional Fantasy Football league. The High Stakes leagues like the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC), World Championship of Fantasy Football (WCOFF) and National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) have three parts as well but I consider the third part to these contests is the “Championship Round” where if you advance, you leave the H2H matches behind and instead play against the other Champions in the final weeks in a total point format.

So why divide up the season into parts? Because each can have different strategies that provide advantages and disadvantages.

For example, once you have made the playoffs now it may be better to add another Kicker or TE as a backup (if you only had 1 on your roster). Why? Because if your TE or K comes up as: “Out” for the big single elimination playoff game, then you will lose an easy 5-10 points in that match up if you do not have a back up. In the regular season I advise NOT carrying an extra Kicker and maybe not an extra TE (unless he is good enough to be used as a Flex player and your rules have a Flex option) because those spots are better used for sleepers at RB or WR. But in a H2H single elimination game those extra points may be the difference between a win and advancing and losing and watching some other owner win the prize.

In the regular season, you can afford to lose a few points during the longer season if such a calamity occurs, secure in the knowledge that the extra RB or WR you have may prove more valuable in the long run.

Another reason to use the “different seasons” theory is for free agent acquisitions.
If I know I have made the playoffs a week or more early, then I can focus on the critical playoff weeks and add players who should excel in those weeks rather then worry about a pick up to win the last week of the regular season. As an example, if I am assured of a playoff spot in week 10 of an 11 week season, then I can add a K or DEF that should explode in week 12 of my playoffs and hold them for an extra week because I do not need to struggle to win in the regular season.

Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($9.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669


Fantasy Football Guidebook: Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95 on sale for $17.95) http://www.amazon.com/1602640203