Quick and dirty here are my top 10 RBs for 2011 in a PPR FF League.
1 Chris Johnson, TEN-The man has incredible talent and speed and the Titans will rediscover him
2 Adrian Peterson MIN-AP always finishes in the top 5 and the Vikes will be a run first offense no matter who is at QB
3 Jamaal Charles KC-I actually like JC more than AP but I am a vikings homer so Charles gets the #3 spot. Thomas Jones (from UVA) will get less and less of the load so finally Jamaal can show his stuff and earn even more fantasy points
4 Adrian Foster HOU-I cringe with him this high. Odds are good that he does NOT repeat last years career season. The Texans have a history of a rotating door at RB greatness.
5 MJD JAX-No explanation needed
6 LeSean McCoy PHI-I did mention this was a PPR league right?
7 Ray Rice BAL-He was banged up some last year and slow to start. Look for top 10 numbers not top 3 numbers.
8 Frank Gore SF-Workhorse who needs to start fast because you know he will be hurt at the end of the season
9 Steven Jackson STL-Hope here is that he gets more than 6 TDs
10 Matt Forte CHI-He was way under my radar in 2010. Not gonna make that mistake again.
Honorable Mention: Burner Turner ATL, Rashard Mendenhall PIT
Note no Peyton Hillis
Fantasy Football Almanac 2011: The Essential Fantasy Football Reference Guide (10.95) now only $7.38 (32% off) http://search.barnesandnoble.com/Fantasy-Football-Almanac-2011/Sam-Hendricks/e/9781936635009/?itm=11
Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669
Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634
Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650
Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428693
Fantasy Football (Soccer to Yanks): The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Football/Fantasy Soccer ($14.95) Now 32% off at $10.08. http://search.barnesandnoble.com/Fantasy-Football-for-Beginners/Sam-Hendricks/e/9781936635016/?itm=12
A lively update/commentary of all things Football (especially fantasy football) from the award-winning author of Fantasy Football Guidebook and four other fantasy football books.
Sunday, May 15, 2011
Saturday, May 14, 2011
Fantasy Football Almanac 2011 hits stores Monday 16 May!
Perfect gift for Fathers Day!
Projections, rankings and predictions for the 2011 NFL season.
Worried that the FF magazines are not coming out this summer...Dont panic. Buy a copy of the annual Fantasy Football Almanac.
Fantasy Football Almanac 2011: The Essential Fantasy Football Reference Guide (10.95) now only $7.38 (32% off) http://search.barnesandnoble.com/Fantasy-Football-Almanac-2011/Sam-Hendricks/e/9781936635009/?itm=11
Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669
Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634
Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650
Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428693
Fantasy Football (Soccer to Yanks): The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Football/Fantasy Soccer ($14.95) Now 32% off at $10.08. http://search.barnesandnoble.com/Fantasy-Football-for-Beginners/Sam-Hendricks/e/9781936635016/?itm=12
Projections, rankings and predictions for the 2011 NFL season.
Worried that the FF magazines are not coming out this summer...Dont panic. Buy a copy of the annual Fantasy Football Almanac.
Fantasy Football Almanac 2011: The Essential Fantasy Football Reference Guide (10.95) now only $7.38 (32% off) http://search.barnesandnoble.com/Fantasy-Football-Almanac-2011/Sam-Hendricks/e/9781936635009/?itm=11
Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669
Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634
Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650
Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428693
Fantasy Football (Soccer to Yanks): The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Football/Fantasy Soccer ($14.95) Now 32% off at $10.08. http://search.barnesandnoble.com/Fantasy-Football-for-Beginners/Sam-Hendricks/e/9781936635016/?itm=12
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
World Championship of Fantasy Football (WCOFF) sold?
The World Championship of Fantasy Football (WCOFF) recently announced a pending "transaction to transfer ownership". The announcement is printed below:
Announcements from WCOFF
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It's with great excitement that I announce the beginning of a new chapter for the World Championship of Fantasy Sports (WCOFS). Over the next 30 to 45 days, I, along with my partners in GridIron Fantasy Sports LLC, will be working through a transaction to transfer ownership of the WCOFS. During this period of time, day to day activity at the WCOFS will continue, specifically the contest administration of the World Championship of Fantasy Baseball (WCOFB) and preparation for the 10th annual World Championship of Fantasy Football (WCOFF).
Since 2002, the WCOFF has awarded over $14M in cash awards and provided a playing field for fantasy sports players willing to embrace the challenge of competing against the best of the best. It's been our pleasure at GridIron Fantasy Sports LLC to have participated in the growth and evolution of the premier fantasy sports contest in the world since 2007 and look forward to what's next for everyone associated with the WCOFF and WCOFB.
So what does this mean for players who have made a prize claim and are awaiting their award distribution? During this period of finalizing a transition of ownership, we will not be releasing checks. As soon as this process is complete, we will resume the awards distribution process. We will go above and beyond to make it up to those of you who were delayed in receiving your award distribution as a result of this transition.
What does this mean for the 2011 WCOFF? The 2011 and 10th Annual World Championship of Fantasy Football will continue as planned with live drafts in Las Vegas, Chicago, Atlantic City and S. Florida - September 8th - 12th. The MGM Grand will host the Las Vegas festivities and the Sheraton Hotel will again host the live events in Atlantic City. Venues for Chicago and S. Florida are still being finalized.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WCOFF followed this announcement with the following:
On behalf of the Partnersof GridIron Fantasy Sports LLC we want to again apologize for the delay you have experienced in receiving your award distribution. We never anticipated it would take us this long to correct our error and we're committed to making it right with you in consideration for this mistake.
You most likely received the announcement this morning regarding a new direction for the World Championship of Fantasy Sports. If you missed this announcement, you can view it HERE. While we reference a period of 30 to 45 days as our anticipated timeframe to finish a transaction, we are hopeful this process will be accelerated and allow us to resume the awards distribution process as quickly as possible. When the awards distribution process does resume, Dustin and Jill will have the full compliment of checks to be printed, signed and mailed. We know this excites Dustin and Jill as much as it does I'm sure you, as there won't be a guessing game as to when your award will be distributed once the process does resume.
Thank you again for your patience and understanding and for the many kind messages and phone calls the WCOFF player community has shared with the staff. While at times our critics have been outspoken and understandably upset, we're fortunate to have had as many, if not more, WCOFF players reach out with support and encouragement.
If you have any questions, you are welcome to contact the office at 636-728-1118 and speak to Dustin. While he will be somewhat restricted on what he can comment to regarding the transaction being finalized, he welcomes the opportunity to answer your questions. If your question can't be answered today, he will be revisiting questions he can't address at the present time as soon as he is able to.
GridIron Fantasy Sports LLC Partners
GridIron Fantasy Sports LLC
623 Timber Creek Trail
O'Fallon, MO 63368
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So what does this mean? Your guess is as good as mine. I have recommended the WCOFF in previous books and played in the WCOFF in previous years.
As mentioned in a previous post, players need to examine the potential of any contest to pay their winners.
As of today, the WCOFF has not paid all of its winners for 2011 and the announcement that those payments have stopped until the 30-45 day transaction period (roughly June 15th) is complete, raises more questions. As I understand it the WCOFS is still taking money from 2011 entrants while stopping (the already significantly late) payments to their 2010 winners. In my opinion, a contest should pay their winners when they promised to do so. Not doing this is a major error.
I hope the "new direction" the WCOFF is taking proves to be a good one. However, I will take a "wait and see" approach for 2011. I am waiting to see them pay all of their 2010 winners, waiting to see if they pay their 2011 winners on time and then and only then deciding on whether to recommned them again only after these bench marks are met.
I wish them well, but in the words of Ronnie Reagan "Trust but verify".
Fantasy Football Almanac 2011: The Essential Fantasy Football Reference Guide (10.95) now only $7.38 (32% off) http://search.barnesandnoble.com/Fantasy-Football-Almanac-2011/Sam-Hendricks/e/9781936635009/?itm=11
Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669
Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634
Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650
Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428693
Fantasy Football (Soccer to Yanks): The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Football/Fantasy Soccer ($14.95) Now 32% off at $10.08. http://search.barnesandnoble.com/Fantasy-Football-for-Beginners/Sam-Hendricks/e/9781936635016/?itm=12
Announcements from WCOFF
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It's with great excitement that I announce the beginning of a new chapter for the World Championship of Fantasy Sports (WCOFS). Over the next 30 to 45 days, I, along with my partners in GridIron Fantasy Sports LLC, will be working through a transaction to transfer ownership of the WCOFS. During this period of time, day to day activity at the WCOFS will continue, specifically the contest administration of the World Championship of Fantasy Baseball (WCOFB) and preparation for the 10th annual World Championship of Fantasy Football (WCOFF).
Since 2002, the WCOFF has awarded over $14M in cash awards and provided a playing field for fantasy sports players willing to embrace the challenge of competing against the best of the best. It's been our pleasure at GridIron Fantasy Sports LLC to have participated in the growth and evolution of the premier fantasy sports contest in the world since 2007 and look forward to what's next for everyone associated with the WCOFF and WCOFB.
So what does this mean for players who have made a prize claim and are awaiting their award distribution? During this period of finalizing a transition of ownership, we will not be releasing checks. As soon as this process is complete, we will resume the awards distribution process. We will go above and beyond to make it up to those of you who were delayed in receiving your award distribution as a result of this transition.
What does this mean for the 2011 WCOFF? The 2011 and 10th Annual World Championship of Fantasy Football will continue as planned with live drafts in Las Vegas, Chicago, Atlantic City and S. Florida - September 8th - 12th. The MGM Grand will host the Las Vegas festivities and the Sheraton Hotel will again host the live events in Atlantic City. Venues for Chicago and S. Florida are still being finalized.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WCOFF followed this announcement with the following:
On behalf of the Partnersof GridIron Fantasy Sports LLC we want to again apologize for the delay you have experienced in receiving your award distribution. We never anticipated it would take us this long to correct our error and we're committed to making it right with you in consideration for this mistake.
You most likely received the announcement this morning regarding a new direction for the World Championship of Fantasy Sports. If you missed this announcement, you can view it HERE. While we reference a period of 30 to 45 days as our anticipated timeframe to finish a transaction, we are hopeful this process will be accelerated and allow us to resume the awards distribution process as quickly as possible. When the awards distribution process does resume, Dustin and Jill will have the full compliment of checks to be printed, signed and mailed. We know this excites Dustin and Jill as much as it does I'm sure you, as there won't be a guessing game as to when your award will be distributed once the process does resume.
Thank you again for your patience and understanding and for the many kind messages and phone calls the WCOFF player community has shared with the staff. While at times our critics have been outspoken and understandably upset, we're fortunate to have had as many, if not more, WCOFF players reach out with support and encouragement.
If you have any questions, you are welcome to contact the office at 636-728-1118 and speak to Dustin. While he will be somewhat restricted on what he can comment to regarding the transaction being finalized, he welcomes the opportunity to answer your questions. If your question can't be answered today, he will be revisiting questions he can't address at the present time as soon as he is able to.
GridIron Fantasy Sports LLC Partners
GridIron Fantasy Sports LLC
623 Timber Creek Trail
O'Fallon, MO 63368
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So what does this mean? Your guess is as good as mine. I have recommended the WCOFF in previous books and played in the WCOFF in previous years.
As mentioned in a previous post, players need to examine the potential of any contest to pay their winners.
As of today, the WCOFF has not paid all of its winners for 2011 and the announcement that those payments have stopped until the 30-45 day transaction period (roughly June 15th) is complete, raises more questions. As I understand it the WCOFS is still taking money from 2011 entrants while stopping (the already significantly late) payments to their 2010 winners. In my opinion, a contest should pay their winners when they promised to do so. Not doing this is a major error.
I hope the "new direction" the WCOFF is taking proves to be a good one. However, I will take a "wait and see" approach for 2011. I am waiting to see them pay all of their 2010 winners, waiting to see if they pay their 2011 winners on time and then and only then deciding on whether to recommned them again only after these bench marks are met.
I wish them well, but in the words of Ronnie Reagan "Trust but verify".
Fantasy Football Almanac 2011: The Essential Fantasy Football Reference Guide (10.95) now only $7.38 (32% off) http://search.barnesandnoble.com/Fantasy-Football-Almanac-2011/Sam-Hendricks/e/9781936635009/?itm=11
Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669
Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634
Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650
Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428693
Fantasy Football (Soccer to Yanks): The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Football/Fantasy Soccer ($14.95) Now 32% off at $10.08. http://search.barnesandnoble.com/Fantasy-Football-for-Beginners/Sam-Hendricks/e/9781936635016/?itm=12
Monday, May 9, 2011
Barnes and Noble offer 32% off Fantasy Football Almanac 2011-Pre order now, available May 15th
You can now pre purchase Fantasy Football Almanac 2011 from Barnes and Noble (BN.com) for just $7.38-32% off the purchase price for a limited time. Act now before they come to their senses. Purchase this book at special pre-order sales price.
AND it qualifies for special express pre-order shipping!
Yes, Virginia there will be a Fantasy Football Almanac 2011 with rankings, projections, statistics and fantasy advice.
You can also pre-order Fantasy Football (Soccer to Yanks): The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Football/Fantasy Soccer ($14.95) Now 32% off at $10.08.
Fantasy Football Almanac 2011: The Essential Fantasy Football Reference Guide (10.95) now only $7.38 (32% off) http://search.barnesandnoble.com/Fantasy-Football-Almanac-2011/Sam-Hendricks/e/9781936635009/?itm=11
Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669
Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634
Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650
Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428693
Fantasy Football (Soccer to Yanks): The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Football/Fantasy Soccer ($14.95) Now 32% off at $10.08. http://search.barnesandnoble.com/Fantasy-Football-for-Beginners/Sam-Hendricks/e/9781936635016/?itm=12
AND it qualifies for special express pre-order shipping!
Yes, Virginia there will be a Fantasy Football Almanac 2011 with rankings, projections, statistics and fantasy advice.
You can also pre-order Fantasy Football (Soccer to Yanks): The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Football/Fantasy Soccer ($14.95) Now 32% off at $10.08.
Fantasy Football Almanac 2011: The Essential Fantasy Football Reference Guide (10.95) now only $7.38 (32% off) http://search.barnesandnoble.com/Fantasy-Football-Almanac-2011/Sam-Hendricks/e/9781936635009/?itm=11
Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669
Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634
Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650
Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428693
Fantasy Football (Soccer to Yanks): The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Football/Fantasy Soccer ($14.95) Now 32% off at $10.08. http://search.barnesandnoble.com/Fantasy-Football-for-Beginners/Sam-Hendricks/e/9781936635016/?itm=12
Sunday, May 8, 2011
The Traditional Draft As We Know it …is Fatally Flawed.
I am sorry to have to be the bearer of bad news, but that staple of your fantasy football league, the Serpentine Draft method, is not a fair drafting tool. In fact, it is a rarely mentioned dirty little secret that the top three (and even top half) of the owners in the draft have an unfair advantage over the other drafters. This is information your commissioner and the pay league operators do not want you to know.
“Say it isn’t so Joe”. The main reason most of us do the Serpentine Draft method in the first place is because we have been sold its worth as the “great equalizer”. Wrong! The premise of the design is to even out the advantage of having an early pick by reversing the draft order in the next round, thus giving everyone the same chance. But this does not happen in evenly balanced leagues. The sad reality is that a draft spot in the top half of the draft gives you a slight advantage over those in the bottom half of the draft. I would argue the advantage is as much as 10 percent (even greater if you get one of the top three picks).
What is the Serpentine draft method? It reverses the draft order every round to compensate for the obvious disadvantages. So in a 14 team league, team #1 with the first pick in round 1 (pick 1.01 or the 1st pick overall) would get the last pick in round two (pick 2.14; 28th overall). In every odd-numbered draft round team 1 gets the first pick and in every even-numbered round they get the last pick. So the order goes like this 1-14, 14-1, 1-14, 14-1 and so on reversing order every round, kind of like a snake (hence the Serpentine moniker). Sounds fair enough, right? The first shall be last and all that jazz. The team with the last pick in round 1, team 14 gets pick 1.14 (14th overall) and pick 2.01 (15th overall). So while not exactly glad to be last, that owner does feel compensated since they get two of the first 15 picks. But is it enough?
How can one weigh the importance of a draft pick? Draft spot calculators take a draft pick and try to quantify them with a value. Using my own Trade Analyzer (from either of my books “Fantasy Football Guidebook” or “Fantasy Football Almanac 2011”-out May 15th) shows that in the Serpentine system team 1 has a substantial advantage over all of the other teams when his picks are weighted using a picks calculator.
Serpentine Draft (1-14, 14-1, 1-14, 14-1)
Pick (Overall Pick) Value
Team 1 1.01 (1st) 378
Team 1 2.14 (28th) 174
Team 1 3.01 (29th) 171
Team 1 4.14 (56th) 106
Total Value in First 4 Rounds in Serpentine = 829
Pick (Overall Pick) Value
Team 2 1.14 (14th) 247
Team 2 2.01 (15th) 240
Team 2 3.14 (42nd) 134
Team 2 4.01 (43rd) 132
Total Value in First 4 Rounds in Serpentine = 753 (76 less than Team 1)
Team 1 with the 1st, 28th , 29th and 56th picks of the first 4 rounds has a 76 point advantage over the last team to pick, Team 14 with the 14th, 15th, 42nd and 43rd picks overall. That value equates to a free 6th round pick for Team 1.
As you can see, not only is the first pick so valuable but the third pick (1st pick in the 3rd round) is as well. As the draft progresses the value of each pick decreases. The first pick is worth much more than the 280th pick (last pick in a 20 round, 14-team draft). Therefore, even though the Serpentine draft continues to give Team 1 advantages every two rounds, that advantage diminishes progressively as the draft continues. This occurs for several other reasons. First, the quality of player depth (and thus value) decreases with every pick after the first pick. Simply put “the pickings get slimmer as the draft progresses” and you cannot get better value with your picks as you make your way to the end. Second, Value Based Drafting (VBD) tends to taper off in the late to middle rounds (at 100 picks overall) because teams end up drafting for team needs rather than getting the best value player. Team needs make a team get a handcuff, back up or starter at a lower skill position versus the best player available. So if a team needs a TE in the 14th round, having the 1st pick or the 14th pick that round is of little consequence as they are going to get a TE regardless.
Therefore, it is not just the 1st pick of the draft but also the 3rd round pick as well that causes the unfairness towards the higher pick teams. The trade calculator supports the theory of unfairness. But what about your draft results? Several recent studies have shown that, when large numbers of leagues (we are talking about tens of thousands per year) are examined, the top 50% of draft spots win their leagues 60% of the time.
What about the perception of which draft pick is the best. If I offered you my 12th spot in exchange for your 1st spot, would you do it? Most would say no. If the top spots are not willing to trade with the lower spot than there is a perceived inequality of draft spots. Until we have a system where any draft spot is considered just as favorable, then we have an unfair system. Think about it this way. If you knew the outcome of the upcoming season, every player’s eventual statistics for the next year; which draft spot would you want to have?
I am not denying that anyone can win from any draft spot in any given year. It is just that some draft spots have a better chance. It is like playing the lottery. Anyone can win, but the person who already knows one of the numbers has a better chance of winning.
How can we fix it? Auction drafts are by far the fairest and have no draft spot bias. Third round reversal is also an option in which case the 2nd and 3rd rounds are reversed. But even that seems to have a small bias. The bonsai draft method reverses the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds and seems to be the closest thing to fair other than an auction draft.
Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669
Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634
Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650
Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428693
“Say it isn’t so Joe”. The main reason most of us do the Serpentine Draft method in the first place is because we have been sold its worth as the “great equalizer”. Wrong! The premise of the design is to even out the advantage of having an early pick by reversing the draft order in the next round, thus giving everyone the same chance. But this does not happen in evenly balanced leagues. The sad reality is that a draft spot in the top half of the draft gives you a slight advantage over those in the bottom half of the draft. I would argue the advantage is as much as 10 percent (even greater if you get one of the top three picks).
What is the Serpentine draft method? It reverses the draft order every round to compensate for the obvious disadvantages. So in a 14 team league, team #1 with the first pick in round 1 (pick 1.01 or the 1st pick overall) would get the last pick in round two (pick 2.14; 28th overall). In every odd-numbered draft round team 1 gets the first pick and in every even-numbered round they get the last pick. So the order goes like this 1-14, 14-1, 1-14, 14-1 and so on reversing order every round, kind of like a snake (hence the Serpentine moniker). Sounds fair enough, right? The first shall be last and all that jazz. The team with the last pick in round 1, team 14 gets pick 1.14 (14th overall) and pick 2.01 (15th overall). So while not exactly glad to be last, that owner does feel compensated since they get two of the first 15 picks. But is it enough?
How can one weigh the importance of a draft pick? Draft spot calculators take a draft pick and try to quantify them with a value. Using my own Trade Analyzer (from either of my books “Fantasy Football Guidebook” or “Fantasy Football Almanac 2011”-out May 15th) shows that in the Serpentine system team 1 has a substantial advantage over all of the other teams when his picks are weighted using a picks calculator.
Serpentine Draft (1-14, 14-1, 1-14, 14-1)
Pick (Overall Pick) Value
Team 1 1.01 (1st) 378
Team 1 2.14 (28th) 174
Team 1 3.01 (29th) 171
Team 1 4.14 (56th) 106
Total Value in First 4 Rounds in Serpentine = 829
Pick (Overall Pick) Value
Team 2 1.14 (14th) 247
Team 2 2.01 (15th) 240
Team 2 3.14 (42nd) 134
Team 2 4.01 (43rd) 132
Total Value in First 4 Rounds in Serpentine = 753 (76 less than Team 1)
Team 1 with the 1st, 28th , 29th and 56th picks of the first 4 rounds has a 76 point advantage over the last team to pick, Team 14 with the 14th, 15th, 42nd and 43rd picks overall. That value equates to a free 6th round pick for Team 1.
As you can see, not only is the first pick so valuable but the third pick (1st pick in the 3rd round) is as well. As the draft progresses the value of each pick decreases. The first pick is worth much more than the 280th pick (last pick in a 20 round, 14-team draft). Therefore, even though the Serpentine draft continues to give Team 1 advantages every two rounds, that advantage diminishes progressively as the draft continues. This occurs for several other reasons. First, the quality of player depth (and thus value) decreases with every pick after the first pick. Simply put “the pickings get slimmer as the draft progresses” and you cannot get better value with your picks as you make your way to the end. Second, Value Based Drafting (VBD) tends to taper off in the late to middle rounds (at 100 picks overall) because teams end up drafting for team needs rather than getting the best value player. Team needs make a team get a handcuff, back up or starter at a lower skill position versus the best player available. So if a team needs a TE in the 14th round, having the 1st pick or the 14th pick that round is of little consequence as they are going to get a TE regardless.
Therefore, it is not just the 1st pick of the draft but also the 3rd round pick as well that causes the unfairness towards the higher pick teams. The trade calculator supports the theory of unfairness. But what about your draft results? Several recent studies have shown that, when large numbers of leagues (we are talking about tens of thousands per year) are examined, the top 50% of draft spots win their leagues 60% of the time.
What about the perception of which draft pick is the best. If I offered you my 12th spot in exchange for your 1st spot, would you do it? Most would say no. If the top spots are not willing to trade with the lower spot than there is a perceived inequality of draft spots. Until we have a system where any draft spot is considered just as favorable, then we have an unfair system. Think about it this way. If you knew the outcome of the upcoming season, every player’s eventual statistics for the next year; which draft spot would you want to have?
I am not denying that anyone can win from any draft spot in any given year. It is just that some draft spots have a better chance. It is like playing the lottery. Anyone can win, but the person who already knows one of the numbers has a better chance of winning.
How can we fix it? Auction drafts are by far the fairest and have no draft spot bias. Third round reversal is also an option in which case the 2nd and 3rd rounds are reversed. But even that seems to have a small bias. The bonsai draft method reverses the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds and seems to be the closest thing to fair other than an auction draft.
Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669
Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634
Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650
Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428693
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Which rookie QB starts the most games? Has the best fantasy football 2011?
Which rookie QB starts the most games? Has the best year?
Lets look at our candidates in the order they were drafted:
Cam Newton CAR Starts day 1 plays 14 of 16 games (2 injured)
Jake Locker TEN Plays half the season 8 of 16
Blaine Gabbert JAX Holds the clip board all season behind Garrard
Christian Ponder MIN Starts day 1 plays 13 of 16 games (injury concerns)
Andy Dalton CIN Gut feeling is Palmer comes back for 1 more year
Colin Kaepernick SF -Alex Smith returns
Ryan Mallett NE-Yeah right
So of the two starters for the year Newton and Ponder who scored the most FF points?
Newton has more rushing yards, TD potential...ya think! But Ponder has better weapons in Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin and Visanthe Shiancoe.
Call them both a push in this evaluation. But I think Newton has the best chance of playing more games due to Ponders injury concerns and the Panthers wanting to annoint Cam QB #1 ASAP.
Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669
Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634
Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650
Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428693
Lets look at our candidates in the order they were drafted:
Cam Newton CAR Starts day 1 plays 14 of 16 games (2 injured)
Jake Locker TEN Plays half the season 8 of 16
Blaine Gabbert JAX Holds the clip board all season behind Garrard
Christian Ponder MIN Starts day 1 plays 13 of 16 games (injury concerns)
Andy Dalton CIN Gut feeling is Palmer comes back for 1 more year
Colin Kaepernick SF -Alex Smith returns
Ryan Mallett NE-Yeah right
So of the two starters for the year Newton and Ponder who scored the most FF points?
Newton has more rushing yards, TD potential...ya think! But Ponder has better weapons in Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin and Visanthe Shiancoe.
Call them both a push in this evaluation. But I think Newton has the best chance of playing more games due to Ponders injury concerns and the Panthers wanting to annoint Cam QB #1 ASAP.
Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669
Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634
Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650
Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428693
Monday, May 2, 2011
I guess my April 23 prediction for the NFL resolution was a bit optimistic
Thank you NFL and NFLPA.
Book sales are down. And there is not much love even after the NFL draft.
Lets get back to work so I can sell some more books and others can get back to work too!
Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669
Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634
Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650
Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428693
Book sales are down. And there is not much love even after the NFL draft.
Lets get back to work so I can sell some more books and others can get back to work too!
Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669
Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634
Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650
Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428693
Sunday, May 1, 2011
$200,000 Grand Prize announced for Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) Main Event-other surprises too!
Many may recall that Dave Gerczak, the 2008 NFFC $100,000 Champion and co-owner of FFPC, penned the forward for Fantasy Football Tips. Well I am excited to pass on the great news that Dave and Alex (Alex Kaganovsky-a great FF player in his own right) have announced a $200,000 Main Event Grand Prize for the Fantasy Football Players Championship. You heard me right. They are doubling (from $100,000 in 2008-2010) the prize for the Champion to $200,000.
Not only that but league prizes have increased too! From $8,500 last year to $10,000 in 2011.
And an additional $15,000+ more money is added to the Championship round 2nd thru 15th spots. I finished in 7th place overall in 2008 and 15th overall in 2009.
The cost to play the Main Event is $1,550 but if you register now before May 15th it is just $1,450. A $200 deposit is all that is required to secure a spot in the 2011 FFPC at the discounted $1,450.
But what if there is no NFL season or a short season?
Taken directly from the FFPC announcement:
"As the NFL owners continue to negotiate with the players, we are hopeful that the agreement gets done sooner rather than later. We are quite confident that an agreement will eventually get done. But nothing is guaranteed. Alex and I believe we must add this caveat to our aggressive new prize structure:
If there is not a CBA agreement by July 1, 2011, we reserve the right to revise our prize structure. At this time, we would offer full refunds to any fantasy player that requests one. While we are adding this provision, it does not mean we will make any changes, even without a CBA by July 1st. The current prize structure may remain, but a decision may need to be made at that time.
It is also important to note that the NFL has creatively worked their schedule so that a full 16 game season can be played even if the season started in Week Four of the regular season. So, if an agreement comes in mid-August, there would still be a full NFL season. That would in turn permit an uncompromised fantasy season. In that case, we would likely still have a Live Main Event draft in Las Vegas and certainly a full slate of Online Main Event drafts as well."
If you not ready for High Stakes Fantasy Football (and many are not) why not try a $77 or $150 or $250 FFPC Satellite League. These 12 team (and new for 2012 some 14 team leagues) allow you to try the FFPC format (two flex players, TE get 1.5 PPR, TDs for KO and P RRTN TDs to players).
I like the way the FFPC pays out quickly (before 31 Dec of the year you win!) and keeps the money for the Main Event prizes in an escrow account.
Note: I am not compensated by the FFPC in any manner (although I wish I were-maybe something to think about guys in the future. LOL).
Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669
Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634
Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650
Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428693
Not only that but league prizes have increased too! From $8,500 last year to $10,000 in 2011.
And an additional $15,000+ more money is added to the Championship round 2nd thru 15th spots. I finished in 7th place overall in 2008 and 15th overall in 2009.
The cost to play the Main Event is $1,550 but if you register now before May 15th it is just $1,450. A $200 deposit is all that is required to secure a spot in the 2011 FFPC at the discounted $1,450.
But what if there is no NFL season or a short season?
Taken directly from the FFPC announcement:
"As the NFL owners continue to negotiate with the players, we are hopeful that the agreement gets done sooner rather than later. We are quite confident that an agreement will eventually get done. But nothing is guaranteed. Alex and I believe we must add this caveat to our aggressive new prize structure:
If there is not a CBA agreement by July 1, 2011, we reserve the right to revise our prize structure. At this time, we would offer full refunds to any fantasy player that requests one. While we are adding this provision, it does not mean we will make any changes, even without a CBA by July 1st. The current prize structure may remain, but a decision may need to be made at that time.
It is also important to note that the NFL has creatively worked their schedule so that a full 16 game season can be played even if the season started in Week Four of the regular season. So, if an agreement comes in mid-August, there would still be a full NFL season. That would in turn permit an uncompromised fantasy season. In that case, we would likely still have a Live Main Event draft in Las Vegas and certainly a full slate of Online Main Event drafts as well."
If you not ready for High Stakes Fantasy Football (and many are not) why not try a $77 or $150 or $250 FFPC Satellite League. These 12 team (and new for 2012 some 14 team leagues) allow you to try the FFPC format (two flex players, TE get 1.5 PPR, TDs for KO and P RRTN TDs to players).
I like the way the FFPC pays out quickly (before 31 Dec of the year you win!) and keeps the money for the Main Event prizes in an escrow account.
Note: I am not compensated by the FFPC in any manner (although I wish I were-maybe something to think about guys in the future. LOL).
Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669
Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634
Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650
Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428693
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