Tuesday, March 19, 2019

FantasyFootballGuidebook.com finishes 4th out fo 20 Experts in Fantasy Index Magazine RB Rankings for 2018

Michael Nease was super aggressive with his running back picks in the Experts Poll last year; with seven different running backs, he ranked them higher or lower than any of the 19 other analysts. And Nease hit on enough of those picks to outperform the rest of the field at this position.
It wasn’t pretty at times. Nease ranked Todd Gurley (6th) and Saquon Barkley (12th) a lot lower than anyone else – picks that rightfully cost him a ton of points. They finished as the top-2 scoring running backs (using standard scoring).
But Nease hit on enough other picks to salvage the best score. He ranked Alvin Kamara as his No. 1 back, for example, which was about 4 spots higher than the vast majority of experts. The Kamara pick helped to essentially cancel one of his misses on Gurley and Barkley. He was also one of only two experts to rank LeVeon Bell just 5th, which paid off when Bell didn’t even play (most ranked Bell either 2nd or 3rd). Similarly, Nease ranked Devonta Freeman only 17th, about 5 spots lower than most; that also paid off big-time when Freeman missed most of the season.
Nease was also among the highest on Christian McCaffrey (13th), which ended up being a huge boon.
Total them up and Nease, who writes for Big Guy Fantasy Sports, ended up in the top spot using our complex scoring system. In this contest, you don’t draft players. Instead, everyone in your top 20 counts; the higher you rank them, the more they count towards your score.
Bob Henry of Football Guys finished 2nd in this category. Patrick Chance took 3rd. Unlike 18 of the other contestants, Chance isn’t an industry writer. Instead, he earned a berth in the competition by finishing in the top 2 in the Fantasy Index Open last year. (Speaking of the open, those scores will be released early in the week.)
EXPERTS POLL, RUNNING BACKS (standard scoring)
Michael Nease55,992
Bob Henry55,512
Patrick Chance54,749
Sam Hendricks54,396
Michael Nazarek54,272
Justin Eleff53,947
Scott Pianowski53,551
Lenny Pappano53,547
Paul Charchian53,309
Cory Bonini53,208
Jody Smith52,716
Jesse Pantuosco52,648
David Dorey52,572
Harold Simons51,868
Alan Satterlee51,858
Chris Liss51,573
Tony Holm51,437
Aaron Bland49,768
Jeff Ratcliffe49,495
Mike Clay49,383
With this competition, attrition tends to play a huge role. Rank a player like LeVeon Bell, Derrius Guice or Devonta Freeman too high, and you’re screwed. Those kind of players, in fact, end up being more important than how you happened to order guys like Gurley, Barkley, McCaffrey and Ezekiel Elliott.
With that in mind, we also score the poll using more of a Value-Based Drafting system. In such a format, you pull out the starters at each position – 12 QB, K, TE and Def, 24 RB and 24 WRs – and look at who was the best at identifying them. The rest of the players, get moved to the side (you just assume that everyone else produced the same as the best backup at each position).
Using the VBD scoring system, Patrick Chance, Sam Hendricks (Extra Point Press) and Henry were the top finishers, with Nease falling back towards the middle of the pack.
It’s a reminder that these picks can be scored in various plausible ways.
Patrick Chance21,695
Sam Hendricks21,479
Bob Henry21,330
Michael Nazarek20,993
Scott Pianowski20,954
Lenny Pappano20,931
Jesse Pantuosco20,915
Michael Nease20,915
Justin Eleff20,847
David Dorey20,659
Harold Simons20,489
Alan Satterlee20,455
Paul Charchian20,375
Jody Smith20,343
Cory Bonini20,189
Chris Liss19,346
Mike Clay19,256
Tony Holm18,864
Aaron Bland18,710
Jeff Ratcliffe18,655
With one position left to grade, Bob Henry is the overall leader, with Nease, Michael Nazarek, Scott Pianowski and Lenny Pappano close behind. Henry has finished 4th, 2nd and 2nd in the last three positions to overcome a slow start.
The last position, however, is the one with the most points at stake: quarterbacks. Those will be tabulated on Sunday.
EXPERTS POLL, OVERALL (standard scoring)
Bob Henry1415422204,738
Michael Nease1618941203,874
Michael Nazarek1123125203,444
Scott Pianowski101867203,095
Lenny Pappano519238203,048
Sam Hendricks1710654202,869
Patrick Chance6911103202,676
Alan Satterlee15121115202,463
Paul Charchian141589201,396
Jesse Pantuosco83101412200,906
Justin Eleff21414176200,054
David Dorey121671613199,673
Chris Liss31151816199,633
Cory Bonini9820710199,342
Harold Simons45171114198,769
Jody Smith137191511198,228
Tony Holm1817131917196,332
Jeff Ratcliffe71318919195,585
Mike Clay206161320194,188
Aaron Bland1920122018194,073
Using the VBD scoring system, Henry and Nease are also in the top 2 spots with only one position left to score.
Bob Henry151611350,022
Michael Nease91242849,448
Lenny Pappano111134649,305
Patrick Chance718811149,072
Scott Pianowski36117549,035
Sam Hendricks17498248,942
Alan Satterlee1813231248,623
Michael Nazarek133516448,435
David Dorey196171048,223
Jesse Pantuosco1281014748,162
Paul Charchian221661347,918
Harold Simons871991147,158
Cory Bonini412051547,027
Chris Liss51012131646,770
Justin Eleff10171519946,770
Jody Smith161413151446,480
Jeff Ratcliffe141917102045,134
Aaron Bland1957201944,979
Tony Holm61514181844,935
Mike Clay202018121744,611

Sunday, March 17, 2019

FantasyFootballGuidebook.com finshes 5th out fo 20 Experts in Fantasy Index Magazine WR Rankings for 2018

Now at 6th overall after WR, TE, K and Defenses all added together.

With the Fantasy Index Experts Poll, the wide receiver position played out almost the same as the tight ends yesterday. Alan Satterlee of the Charlotte Observer was the winner, while Bob Henry of Football Guys came out on the top in the alternative scoring method.
With tight ends, Satterlee had a handful of picks that stood out. That wasn’t so much the case here, where it appears he picked up some value here and there. He ranked Mike Evans 5th, which helped him along (Evans was about 4 spots lower on most boards). He also helped himself by being among the highest on T.Y. Hilton (10th) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (13th).
Whatever the reasons, after all 20 picks of all 20 experts were scored, Satterlee finished in the No. 1 spot, with 55,481 points. Three others also made it over the 55,000-point mark (less than 1 percent behind): Henry, Lenny Pappano (Draft Sharks) and Michael Nease (Big Guy Fantasy Sports).
EXPERTS POLL, WR (standard scoring)
Alan Satterlee55,481
Bob Henry55,413
Lenny Pappano55,142
Michael Nease55,034
Sam Hendricks54,742
Scott Pianowski54,526
Cory Bonini54,398
Paul Charchian54,205
Jeff Ratcliffe54,174
Patrick Chance54,030
Harold Simons53,813
Michael Nazarek53,737
Mike Clay53,655
Jesse Pantuosco53,653
Jody Smith53,524
David Dorey53,458
Justin Eleff53,319
Chris Liss53,300
Tony Holm53,276
Aaron Bland53,241
If we use the scoring system that establishes a floor beneath picks (reducing the impact of injuries and benchings) than Henry takes top honors, with the top 4 spots going to the same four analysts.
For this scoring system, I set the floor at 25 wide receivers. In a 12-team league with everyone starting two wide receivers, that would be 24 starting wide receivers. I assumed that those who missed on picks would be able to get production on par with the best backup receivers, using trades and free-agent pickups – guys tend to emerge throughout the season. Emmanuel Sanders ranked 25th in scoring at this position, with 127.5 points, so that was deemed to be the floor – so credit was only given to production beyond that point.
Bob Henry17,362
Michael Nease17,261
Alan Satterlee17,253
Lenny Pappano17,016
Cory Bonini16,774
Paul Charchian16,652
Scott Pianowski16,598
Sam Hendricks16,580
Harold Simons16,491
Jeff Ratcliffe16,410
Patrick Chance16,282
Mike Clay16,249
Chris Liss16,160
Jesse Pantuosco16,057
Jody Smith15,948
Michael Nazarek15,948
David Dorey15,916
Tony Holm15,781
Justin Eleff15,728
Aaron Bland15,686
With two positions left to grade, Satterlee is the overall leader. Scott Pianowski and Pappano are about 1,000 points back, but somebody from further back could still make a run – the QB and RB positions tend to be the most important.
EXPERTS POLL, OVERALL (standard scoring)
Alan Satterlee151211150,605
Scott Pianowski10186149,543
Lenny Pappano51923149,501
Bob Henry141542149,226
Michael Nazarek112312149,172
Sam Hendricks171065148,474
Jesse Pantuosco831014148,258
Paul Charchian14158148,087
Chris Liss311518148,060
Patrick Chance691110147,927
Michael Nease161894147,881
David Dorey1216716147,101
Harold Simons451711146,902
Cory Bonini98207146,134
Justin Eleff2141417146,107
Jeff Ratcliffe713189146,090
Jody Smith1371915145,512
Tony Holm18171319144,895
Mike Clay2061613144,805
Aaron Bland19201220144,306
Grading picks of experts, of course, is a subjective exercise. You can score them a lot of different ways, with different guys potentially “winning”. If we instead use the VBD scoring method, Henry is the current leader, with Nease and Pappano close behind.
Bob Henry15161128,692
Michael Nease9124228,534
Lenny Pappano11113428,374
Alan Satterlee18132328,168
Scott Pianowski3611728,081
David Dorey1961727,563
Paul Charchian2216627,543
Sam Hendricks1749827,464
Michael Nazarek13351627,442
Chris Liss510121327,424
Patrick Chance71881127,377
Jesse Pantuosco128101427,247
Cory Bonini4120526,838
Harold Simons8719926,669
Jeff Ratcliffe1419171026,479
Aaron Bland19572026,270
Jody Smith1614131526,137
Tony Holm615141826,071
Justin Eleff1017151925,923
Mike Clay2020181225,355

Saturday, March 16, 2019

FantasyFootballGuidebook finishes 6th out fo 20 Experts in Fantasy Index TE Rankings for 2018

Spoiler alert! I am making my move!!!
10th Overall after this 6th place finish...

To win at fantasy football, you have to take some stands on some guys – players where you feel they’ll be a lot better (or worse) than what is generally expected. Alan Satterlee of The Charlotte Observer took a number of bold gambles at the tight end position in the Fantasy Index Experts Poll and was right on almost all of them, winning this position decisively.
Most notably, Satterlee has always been a fan of the talent of David Njoku. He ranked the Cleveland tight end way higher than everyone else, and that paid off nicely when Njoku had a big season. (Satterlee ranked him 7th; none of the other 19 experts ranked him higher than 12th).
Similarly, everyone had a feeling Trey Burton might be good in Chicago, but Satterlee pushed more chips into the middle of the table, ranking him 6th (again, the highest of anyone).
At the same time, Satterlee placed the lowest grades of anyone on Greg Olsen (8th) and Delanie Walker (15th) and thus benefitted when their seasons were sullied by injuries.
Using our ridiculously complex scoring system, Satterlee beat everyone else by over 1,000 points. Lenny Pappano of Draft Sharks took 2nd, while Michael Nazarek of Fantasy Football Mastermind placed 3rd.
As a reminder of how we score this thing, we take the production of the player (using standard scoring) and multiply it against where he was ranked. The higher you rank a player, the more he counts towards your score. Njoku, for example, scored 87.9 points. Had you ranked him 1st, you would receive 2,197.5 points (25 x 87.9). Had you ranked him 2nd, you would receive 2,109.6 points (24 x 87.9). A 3rd-place ranking would score 2,021.7 (23 x 87.9). And so on. Lots of numbers in an attempt to grade all of the picks made by all of the experts.
Attrition is key in this format, of course. Those who predicted big things out of Walker, Olsen, Tyler Eifert and Jack Doyle were dead from the start. You take zeros week after week, and you’ve got no chance – those picks become statistically way more important than whether you ranked Travis Kelce or Zach Ertz higher.
With that in mind we also score this contest using more of a VBD method. In that scoring, you assume that if a player is injured or simply unproductive, he’ll be replaced with a free agent pickup along the way – the team owner would find a replacement. In the alternative scoring system, we’re looking only at starter-caliber players (the top 12 tight ends), and we’re looking only at how much production they provided beyond the rest of the field. In that scoring system, Evan Engram (81.3) was the 13th tight end, and we assumed he was the worst you could do. In such a format, Njoku wasn’t worth 87.9, he was worth 6.6 (he was 6.6 points better than Engram).
In such a scoring format, Satterlee still did well – 2nd place – but Bob Henry of Football Guys moved into the top spot.
@table header:2
EXPERTS POLL / TIGHT ENDS (standard scoring)
Analyst           Points
Alan Satterlee            29,177
Lenny Pappano         28,165
Michael Nazarek        28,096
Bob Henry      27,972
Chris Liss        27,912
Sam Hendricks          27,776
David Dorey   27,633
Scott Pianowski         27,550
Michael Nease           27,530
Jesse Pantuosco         27,168
Patrick Chance          26,861
Aaron Bland   26,651
Tony Holm     26,297
Justin Eleff     26,011
Paul Charchian          25,903
Mike Clay       25,642
Harold Simons           25,591
Jeff Ratcliffe   25,506
Jody Smith     25,408
Cory Bonini    25,003
In VBD scoring, the scores are way lower because we’re tossing out 81.3 points of each player’s score – only points above that threshold count.
@table header:2
Analyst           Points
Bob Henry      7,655
Alan Satterlee            7,520
Lenny Pappano         7,391
Michael Nease           7,302
Michael Nazarek        7,301
David Dorey   7,233
Aaron Bland   7,197
Patrick Chance          7,190
Sam Hendricks          7,182
Jesse Pantuosco         7,134
Scott Pianowski         7,119
Chris Liss        7,060
Jody Smith     6,532
Tony Holm     6,364
Justin Eleff     6,339
Paul Charchian          6,313
Jeff Ratcliffe   6,285
Mike Clay       6,174
Harold Simons           5,986
Cory Bonini    5,641
At the halfway point of the competition, Nazarek is the overall leader, followed by Satterlee and Scott Pianowski of Yahoo.
@table header:2
EXPERTS POLL / OVERALL (standard scoring)    
Analyst           Def      TE       PK       Points
Michael Nazarek        11       3          2          95,435
Alan Satterlee            15       1          12       95,124
Scott Pianowski         10       8          1          95,017
Chris Liss        3          5          11       94,760
Jesse Pantuosco         8          10       3          94,604
Lenny Pappano         5          2          19       94,359
Patrick Chance          6          11       9          93,897
Paul Charchian          1          15       4          93,882
Bob Henry      14       4          15       93,813
Sam Hendricks          17       6          10       93,732
David Dorey   12       7          16       93,643
Harold Simons           4          17       5          93,088
Michael Nease           16       9          18       92,847
Justin Eleff     2          14       14       92,789
Jody Smith     13       19       7          91,988
Jeff Ratcliffe   7          18       13       91,916
Cory Bonini    9          20       8          91,737
Tony Holm     18       13       17       91,618
Mike Clay       20       16       6          91,150
Aaron Bland   19       12       20       91,065
If you’re more a fan of the scoring system with a floor, then David Dorey of The Huddle is the leader at the halfway point, with Nazarek and Pianowski close behind.
@table header:2
EXPERTS POLL / OVERALL (VBD scoring)            
Analyst           Def      TE       PK       Points
David Dorey   1          6          9          11,648
Michael Nazarek        13       5          3          11,494
Scott Pianowski         3          11       6          11,483
Lenny Pappano         11       3          11       11,358
Bob Henry      15       1          16       11,331
Michael Nease           9          4          12       11,272
Chris Liss        5          12       10       11,264
Jesse Pantuosco         12       10       8          11,190
Patrick Chance          7          8          18       11,095
Alan Satterlee            18       2          13       10,915
Paul Charchian          2          16       2          10,891
Sam Hendricks          17       9          4          10,883
Aaron Bland   19       7          5          10,584
Tony Holm     6          14       15       10,291
Justin Eleff     10       15       17       10,195
Jody Smith     16       13       14       10,189
Harold Simons           8          19       7          10,178
Jeff Ratcliffe   14       17       19       10,070
Cory Bonini    4          20       1          10,064
Mike Clay       20       18       20       9,106

Friday, March 15, 2019

FantasyFootballGuidebook finishes 10th out of 20 in Fantasy Index Kickers Rankings for 2018

With the Experts Poll, sometimes it’s not who you pick but who you don’t. That was the case at the Kicker Position. Scott Pianowski of Yahoo wins this one, and Chris Boswell was his MVP.
Boswell, of course, had a lousy season for the Steelers, but if we wind the clock back to late May, Pianowski was the guy who saying louder than anyone else, “Don’t draft Chris Boswell”. Boswell was only 13th on this board. He appeared 3rd to 9th on the vast majority of other draft boards, creating a lot of value for Pianowski at this position.
Injuries and roster moves played a larger role than usual at this position. Of the top 12 kickers on the board, five played fewer than 16 games: Zuerlein, Bryant, Boswell, Gano and Bailey. In this attrition-based contest, there’s nothing worse than getting stuck with a zero week after week.
Michael Nazarek (Fantasy Football Mastermind) and Jesse Pantuosco (RotoWorld) took 2nd and 3rd place at this position.
Paul Charchian of LeagueSafe, meanwhile, captured 4th, so remains the overall leader. (Charchian won the other position we’ve scored – Defenses & Special teams). After two rounds, only two experts have ranked in the top 5 at both of them – Charchian and Harold Simons (who won his way into this competition by winning the Fantasy Index Open in 2017).
Still to come are the more telling positions: QB, RB, WR, TE.
@table header:2
EXPERTS POLL (kickers)
Scott Pianowski
Michael Nazarek
Jesse Pantuosco
Paul Charchian
Harold Simons
Mike Clay
Jody Smith
Cory Bonini
Patrick Chance
Sam Hendricks
Chris Liss
Alan Satterlee
Jeff Ratcliffe
Justin Eleff
Bob Henry
David Dorey
Tony Holm
Michael Nease
Lenny Pappano
Aaron Bland

Wednesday, March 13, 2019

FantasyFootballGuidebook finishe 17th of 20th in Fantasy Index Defense Rankings for 2018

Paul Charchian of LeagueSafe is the winner of the Defense category of the Fantasy Index Experts Poll, and it was the Chicago Bears who lifted him into the top spot.
The Bears had the No. 1 defense (scoring 160 points in standard scoring), and Charchian was one of only three of the 20 panelists who ranked them in his top 10. That gave Charchian a big edge over most of the field.
Only one expert ranked the Bears even higher (Michael Nease ranked them 7th) but Nease undermined that pick by being one of only three who didn’t include Kansas City in his top 20. With 52 sacks and 27 takeaways, Kansas City finished 2nd in scoring at this position, so Nease lost a ton of ground at that spot to the 17 who placed them in the top 20.
This contest is different from a regular fantasy league, with each player being placed on a roster. Here, each expert submits a top 20 at each of the six positions, and all 120 picks are graded – the higher you rank a player, the more he counts towards your score.
The Bears scored 160 points in this contest. Had you ranked them first, you would have received 4,000 points (25 x 160). Rank them 2nd would get you 3,840 (24 x 160). Rank them 3rd would generate 3,680 (23 x 160). And so on.
Most experts ranked Chicago in the teens (average finish was 14th), and Charchian generated about an extra 900 points by instead ranking them 8th.
The Bears were helped along by a late trade for Khalil Mack; that deal went down after everyone’s top 20s were submitted. But it can be argued that there’s less luck involved in this category than any of the other positions. This is the only category were each contestant is guaranteed of at least getting 16 games out of each of their 20 picks. (Injuries and lineup changes tend to be critical at the other positions.)
Regardless, Charchian is the early leader in this contest, and we’ll crown an overall champion after grading the other five positions in the coming days.
Justin Eleff of the Fantasy Index Podcast finished 2nd in this category, while Chris Liss of Rotowire took 3rd.
The Jaguars were the huge disappointment at this position, finishing 18th in scoring. That was shocking, since 19 of the analysts ranked them No. 1 overall. But they all suffered equally, at least. Eleff picked up only slight value by instead ranking them 2nd.
@table header:2
Paul Charchian
Justin Eleff
Chris Liss
Harold Simons
Lenny Pappano
Patrick Chance
Jeff Ratcliffe
Jesse Pantuosco
Cory Bonini
Scott Pianowski
Michael Nazarek
David Dorey
Jody Smith
Bob Henry
Alan Satterlee
Michael Nease
Sam Hendricks
Tony Holm
Aaron Bland
Mike Clay

Monday, March 11, 2019

Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) Main Event has $500,000 First Prize!!!

You read the title correctly. $500,000 or half a Million dollars to the winner of the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC)

The FFPC Main event prize has increased by

-59 draft dates/times (up from 42 last year)
-$3.1 Million ($3,100,000) in prizes (up $900,000 from last year)
-$500,000 Grand Prize to FFPC 2019 Main Event Champion

As always enter the Main Event before 31 May and you are eligible for the lottery to have a shot at the lucrative Pros vs Joes Contest (competing for 8 Main Event entries for prizes)

Early bird pricing:
$1,750 first online team (each additional team just $1,500)
$1875 first live team (each additional team just $1,650)

Venue is again Planet Hollywood Resort and Casino in Las Vegas1

Friday, November 16, 2018

Ask the Expert Question of the Week: Who will play in the NFC and AFC Championship games?

Who will play in the NFC and AFC Championship games?

AFC Championship New England @ Kansas City 

Kansas City has the best record in the AFC and are in all likely hood the #1 seed. Very tough to knock off the Chiefs in Arrowhead so they advance. And never count out the Pats. They will have to win a few playoff games, one of which will be on the road, but they can overcome anything. Don’t bet against Brady and Belichick.

NFC Championship        Green Bay @ New Orleans

New Orleans seems pretty unstoppable. Drew Brees knows this may be his last chance at a Super Bowl despite what he says about playing for many more years. The Saints seem to have a sense of purpose and even the defense is playing better. All the elements are there-run game, QB play, WRs to count on and a defense that keeps them close. The Packers, on the other hand, are going to be the team that catches fire late and wins a few in a row to advance deep in the playoffs. Aaron Rodgers may not have as many weapons as Brees does but he has been here before. His experience moves the Pack into the Championship game. 

ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly at http://www.fantasyindex.com/ with answers to a new question posted Thursday morning.

Sam Hendricks is the author of Fantasy Football Guidebook, Fantasy Football Tips and Fantasy Football Basics , all available at http://www.ExtraPointPress.com/, at all major bookstores, and at http://www.amazon.com/ and www.BN.com. He is a 25+ year fantasy football veteran who regularly participates in the National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC), Fantasy Football World Championship (FFWC) and finished 7th and 16th overall (out of 228 top players) in the 2008 and 2009 Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC). He won the Fantasy Index Open in 2013. In 2015 he won his Pros vs Joes Challenge division and finished 5th overall. 

Check out the latest book from Extra Point Press…a military thriller from Sam Hendricks Just One More...

Fantasy Football Tips (2nd Edition): 230 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($12.95) www.amazon.com/dp/1936635151

Books from Extra Point Press:

Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650

Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/