Friday, January 31, 2014

Ask the Expert Question: What do you think will happen in Super Bowl XLVIII?

What do you think will happen in Super Bowl XLVIII?

Sure defenses usually beat offenses in the Super Bowl, but 2013 was a special year for Peyton. Record breaking in so many ways that Peyton finds a way to win in the cold of East Rutherford. Yes cold not snow. Windy maybe and cold but no precipitation. 
Manning is the MVP with 350 yards passing and 2 TDs despite 2 picks. Lynch scores a rushing TD but Russell Wilson flops with just 200 yards passing as the Denver defense takes revenge on those "haters" who talked up the Seahawk side. John Elway is relieved. Final DEN 27-SEA 24.



ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly at http://www.fantasyindex.com/ with answers to a new question posted Thursday morning.


Sam Hendricks is the author of Fantasy Football Guidebook, Fantasy Football Tips and Fantasy Football Basics , all available at his website, http://www.ffguidebook.com/, at all major bookstores, and at http://www.amazon.com/. He is a 20+ year fantasy football veteran who regularly participates in the National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC), Fantasy Football World Championship (FFWC) and finished 7th and 16th overall (out of 228 top players) in the 2008 and 2009 Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC).


Check out the latest book from Extra Point Press…available now for the Holidays.


Fantasy Football Tips (2nd Edition): 230 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($12.95) www.amazon.com/dp/1936635151


Books from Extra Point Press:

Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650

Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634

Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95) 
www.amazon.com/dp/0982428693

Fantasy Soccer: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Soccer Players ($14.95) 
http://www.amazon.com/dp/1936635070


Fantasy Hockey: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Hockey Players ($14.95) www.amazon.com/dp/1936635100
Fantasy Basketball Handbook: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Beginners and Experienced Players ($12.95) www.amazon.com/dp/1936635097

Sunday, January 26, 2014

So what are your odds of winning the office SB pool?



Ok, how many of you out there are in the office Super Bowl pool? No need to raise your hands as everyone knows there's no gambling here at Bushwood, judge Snails. So lets hypothetically say that you are in a SB pool for .... the right to say you won. No money involved, no matchsticks, no jellybeans right...

So what are your odds of winning this 100 square pool? Everyone should know that these pools are totally random. The 10 x 10 square grid (10 squares for the home team score and 10 for the visitors score) is an office pool certainty about now. 
10 numbers between 0-9 are randomly drawn for each square corresponding to each team. You end up with a grid where the two numbers intersect in one of the 100 squares. The number associated with each team needs to match the last digit of their score. For example, SEA 7 means a winner if the Seahawks have 7, 17, 27, 37, 47, 57 etc you get the picture. Match both teams numbers with your square and you have a winner.
If you were to play for ....jellybeans then each quarter could yield an equal winner. Say 25 jellybeans for each quarter winner (assuming each square costs a JB). Or give all 100 to the Final score winner. I like to build the suspense and give 5 to the 1st QTR winner, 10 to the half time score winner, 15 to the 3rd quarter winner and 20 to the fourth quarter winner and 50 to the final score winner. This way you are covered in case there is a OT. If no OT then the 4th QTR/Final Score winner gets 70. 

But what are your chances of winning. Which numbers or combination of numbers is good and by how much?
0 is a good number because the score starts out at that and then 10 and 20 are good possibilities.
1 is OK since 21 (3 TDs) happens quite often but do not count too much on 11 or 31. So better as a QTR. But 01 is not possible so a little less desirable than say 4
2 terrible 
3 Good since FGs often lead to 3 and 13.
4 Better then 1 because more 4 is possible ( work with me 2 safeties right) but more because 14 and 24 are prominent scores
5 terrible
6 Can happen especially early 
7 Best number to have since it is the basis of TDs. 07, 17, 27 all look good.
8 terrible
9 Not that good. 

Early in the game 0, 3 and 7
Late anything can happen

Lets look at combinations

Best combos (Can be reversed and equal same chance so 7/0 has same % as 0/7)

0/0              7.1% winning chance
7/0              5.4%
3/0              4.6%
7/7              3.8% I would thought this would be higher
7/3              3.5%
3/3              3.3%
0/4              3.0%
7/4              2.7%

Worst Combos (Never won final score)
1/1
1/2
most of them with 2, 5 or 8
3/9 surprise
9/9

Conclusions-Top 15 squares have 55% chance of winning. There are 45 squares who have not won. So half of the squares have virtually no chance of winning and 15 have the best chance. The rich get richer and the poor get poorer.


Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650

Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669


Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon 
http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634

Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95) 
www.amazon.com/dp/0982428693

Fantasy Football (Soccer to Yanks): The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Football/Fantasy Soccer ($14.95) 
http://www.amazon.com/dp/1936635011

Fantasy Hockey: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Hockey Players ($14.95) www.amazon.com/dp/1936635100

Saturday, January 25, 2014

Congratulations to the 2013 Pros vs Joes Winners!

The 2013 Pros Vs Joes Draft Challenge is over!

The overall winner is Chris Banks who totaled a whopping 3194.80 points. This is the highest total ever in the 5 year competition. The heavy hitters rostered on his team consisted of LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Vincent Jackson, Eric Decker, Alshon Jeffery, Knowshon Moreno, Julian Edelman, and the Kansas City Chiefs D. Though he participated as a Joe, he would be considered more of a true Pro than anyone else participating if they knew that he owned more than 150 teams in the Football Guys Championship competition. 

Across the 6 individual divisions, 3 divisions were won by the Joes and 3 won by the Pros.

The divisions won by "Joes"

League 1 - Jeff Tirabassi (Cornfins)
League 2 - Wayne Ellis (Coltsfan)
League 3 - Chris Banks (Cobra Kai)

The divisions won by "Pros"

League 4 - Kevin English (DraftSharks.com)
League 5 - Jim Day (FantasyTaz.com)
League 6 - Micah James (FantasyInsights.com)

All in all, a great season where everyone came prepared on draft day and represented well. All the information and results from the competition can be found at the Pros vs Joes Central page at FantasyMojo.com. 

http://www.fantasymo...tab-leaderboard

I finished 38th overall (out of 72 competitors) and 8th in our Friday Division. David Dodds of FootballGuys.com beat me by .5 points. Arg!

Thanks to all, especially the FFPC, who allocated a great amount of time during the preseason to running the drafts and broadcasted them live on their podcast and who awarded tremendous prizes to each league winner-a FFPC Main Event Entry valued at $1,700. 

Also a special thank you to Darren Armani who organizes this great event via his own FantasyMojo.com website and the FFPC message boards.





Fantasy Football Tips (2nd Edition): 230 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($12.95) www.amazon.com/dp/1936635151


Books from Extra Point Press:

Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650

Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634

Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95) 
www.amazon.com/dp/0982428693

Fantasy Soccer: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Soccer Players ($14.95) 
http://www.amazon.com/dp/1936635070


Fantasy Hockey: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Hockey Players ($14.95) www.amazon.com/dp/1936635100
Fantasy Basketball Handbook: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Beginners and Experienced Players ($12.95) www.amazon.com/dp/1936635097

Friday, January 24, 2014

Ask the Expert Question: Which one player, for good or ill, has changed your opinion of him most during the NFL postseason, and why?

Which one player, for good or ill, has changed your opinion of him most during the NFL postseason, and why?

Julian Edelman. What a great 4 game start to the season (34-319-2 TD). Then came the letdown as he caught just 19 passes for 181 yards in his next 6 games. So by week 12 I had forgotten about him. Then he rebounded with another big 4 game stretch (37-414-4) but I was too busy with fantasy playoffs to note his return. His two NFL playoff games (16-173-1) reminded me of why I drafted him this year and why he is someone to target for next year. 
 

ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly at http://www.fantasyindex.com/ with answers to a new question posted Thursday morning.


Sam Hendricks is the author of Fantasy Football Guidebook, Fantasy Football Tips and Fantasy Football Basics , all available at his website, http://www.ffguidebook.com/, at all major bookstores, and at http://www.amazon.com/. He is a 20+ year fantasy football veteran who regularly participates in the National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC), Fantasy Football World Championship (FFWC) and finished 7th and 16th overall (out of 228 top players) in the 2008 and 2009 Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC).


Check out the latest book from Extra Point Press…available now for the Holidays.


Fantasy Football Tips (2nd Edition): 230 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($12.95) www.amazon.com/dp/1936635151


Books from Extra Point Press:

Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650

Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634

Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95) 
www.amazon.com/dp/0982428693

Fantasy Soccer: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Soccer Players ($14.95) 
http://www.amazon.com/dp/1936635070


Fantasy Hockey: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Hockey Players ($14.95) www.amazon.com/dp/1936635100
Fantasy Basketball Handbook: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Beginners and Experienced Players ($12.95) www.amazon.com/dp/1936635097

Friday, January 17, 2014

Ask the Expert Question: Without knowing where they'll end up, which college star do you currently believe will have the best NFL career?

It's possible that three of the top 4 picks in the 2014 NFL draft will be quarterbacks -- BridgewaterManzielBortles. Without knowing where they'll end up, which college star do you currently believe will have the best NFL career?

Johnny "Football" Manziel intrigues me the most. His intangibles are off the chart and he could be the Texans #1 pick of 2014. Houston already has an established running game assuming Ben Tate stays too. Pairing Johnny Football with an aging Andre Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins and Owen Daniels presents a great opportunity. But for the long term he has as good a chance of winning there as any of the others.



ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly at http://www.fantasyindex.com/ with answers to a new question posted Thursday morning.


Sam Hendricks is the author of Fantasy Football Guidebook, Fantasy Football Tips and Fantasy Football Basics , all available at his website, http://www.ffguidebook.com/, at all major bookstores, and at http://www.amazon.com/. He is a 20+ year fantasy football veteran who regularly participates in the National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC), Fantasy Football World Championship (FFWC) and finished 7th and 16th overall (out of 228 top players) in the 2008 and 2009 Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC).


Check out the latest book from Extra Point Press…available now for the Holidays.


Fantasy Football Tips (2nd Edition): 230 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($12.95) www.amazon.com/dp/1936635151


Books from Extra Point Press:

Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650

Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634

Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95) 
www.amazon.com/dp/0982428693

Fantasy Soccer: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Soccer Players ($14.95) 
http://www.amazon.com/dp/1936635070


Fantasy Hockey: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Hockey Players ($14.95) www.amazon.com/dp/1936635100
Fantasy Basketball Handbook: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Beginners and Experienced Players ($12.95) www.amazon.com/dp/1936635097

Thursday, January 16, 2014

Week 17 Pickem Results (a bit late) and this weeks picks

Week 17 results were great- 15 wins and one loss scoring 127 confidence points (out of 136 possible).
The NYJ upset over MIA was my only loss.

This week I predict:
DEN over NE
and 
SF over SEA in the upset





Check out the latest book from Extra Point Press…available now for the Holidays.


Fantasy Football Tips (2nd Edition): 230 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($12.95) www.amazon.com/dp/1936635151

Books from Extra Point Press:

Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650

Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634

Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95) 
www.amazon.com/dp/0982428693

Fantasy Soccer: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Soccer Players ($14.95) 
http://www.amazon.com/dp/1936635070


Fantasy Hockey: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Hockey Players ($14.95) www.amazon.com/dp/1936635100
Fantasy Basketball Handbook: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Beginners and Experienced Players ($12.95) www.amazon.com/dp/1936635097

Friday, January 10, 2014

Ask the Expert Question: Every fantasy season has new lessons. Share one lesson learned from 2013, or failing that, something which confirmed a previously held belief.

Every fantasy season has new lessons. Share one lesson learned from 2013, or failing that, something which confirmed a previously held belief.


2013 confirmed the "Wait on QBs theory". The top 10 QB list is littered with mid round pickups: Andy Dalton (#3), Philip Rivers (#5), Ben Roethlisberger (#8) and Matt Ryan (#10) are some of the non-studs that excelled. Granted the stud QBs dropped in most drafts this year anyway but their demise seems vindicated. The only exception was Peyton Manning who proved to be a great QB addition and is worthy of a first rounder in 2014.




ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly at http://www.fantasyindex.com/ with answers to a new question posted Thursday morning.


Sam Hendricks is the author of Fantasy Football Guidebook, Fantasy Football Tips and Fantasy Football Basics , all available at his website, http://www.ffguidebook.com/, at all major bookstores, and at http://www.amazon.com/. He is a 20+ year fantasy football veteran who regularly participates in the National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC), Fantasy Football World Championship (FFWC) and finished 7th and 16th overall (out of 228 top players) in the 2008 and 2009 Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC).


Check out the latest book from Extra Point Press…available now for the Holidays.



Fantasy Football Tips (2nd Edition): 230 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($12.95) www.amazon.com/dp/1936635151


Books from Extra Point Press:

Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650

Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634

Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95) 
www.amazon.com/dp/0982428693

Fantasy Soccer: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Soccer Players ($14.95) 
http://www.amazon.com/dp/1936635070


Fantasy Hockey: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Hockey Players ($14.95) www.amazon.com/dp/1936635100
Fantasy Basketball Handbook: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Beginners and Experienced Players ($12.95) www.amazon.com/dp/1936635097

Friday, January 3, 2014

Ask the Expert Question: Assuming a single draft for the entire postseason, who should be the No. 1 pick in a playoff fantasy football league?

Assuming a single draft for the entire postseason, who should be the No. 1 pick in a playoff fantasy football league?

Peyton Manning has to be your first pick. Denver with home field advantage is the favorite to make the Super Bowl and the scoring potential for Peyton makes him a top pick. Marshawn Lynch at RB looks great if you cannot have Peyton. 


ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly at http://www.fantasyindex.com/ with answers to a new question posted Thursday morning.


Sam Hendricks is the author of Fantasy Football Guidebook, Fantasy Football Tips and Fantasy Football Basics , all available at his website, http://www.ffguidebook.com/, at all major bookstores, and at http://www.amazon.com/. He is a 20+ year fantasy football veteran who regularly participates in the National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC), Fantasy Football World Championship (FFWC) and finished 7th and 16th overall (out of 228 top players) in the 2008 and 2009 Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC).


Check out the latest book from Extra Point Press…available now for the Holidays.


Fantasy Football Tips (2nd Edition): 230 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($12.95) www.amazon.com/dp/1936635151


Books from Extra Point Press:

Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650

Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634

Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95) 
www.amazon.com/dp/0982428693

Fantasy Soccer: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Soccer Players ($14.95) 
http://www.amazon.com/dp/1936635070


Fantasy Hockey: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Hockey Players ($14.95) www.amazon.com/dp/1936635100
Fantasy Basketball Handbook: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Beginners and Experienced Players ($12.95) www.amazon.com/dp/1936635097