Drafted in the Fantasy Index Experts Auction draft Monday night. Tough competition with the likes of Ian Allan (Fantasy Index Magazine editor, David Dodds, Christopher Harris and many other big names in the fantasy football world.
I will show my team after the electronic magazine comes out next week but I will say the buzz about Mike Vick has died down some and Chris Johnsons holdout and MJDs injury have others worried. Not me for the right price though.
Tim Hightower looks like he is asserting himself as the #1 RB in WAS for now and his auction price reflected this.
Fred Davis TE WAS went for more than Chris Cooley so be afraid be very afraid.
Likewise Jeremy Maclin value has dropped tremendously with his mysterious illness.
Fantasy Football Almanac 2011: The Essential Fantasy Football Reference Guide (10.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/1936635003
Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669
Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634
Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650
Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428693
Fantasy Football (Soccer to Yanks): The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Football/Fantasy Soccer ($14.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/1936635011
Showing posts with label auction. Show all posts
Showing posts with label auction. Show all posts
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
Sunday, May 8, 2011
The Traditional Draft As We Know it …is Fatally Flawed.
I am sorry to have to be the bearer of bad news, but that staple of your fantasy football league, the Serpentine Draft method, is not a fair drafting tool. In fact, it is a rarely mentioned dirty little secret that the top three (and even top half) of the owners in the draft have an unfair advantage over the other drafters. This is information your commissioner and the pay league operators do not want you to know.
“Say it isn’t so Joe”. The main reason most of us do the Serpentine Draft method in the first place is because we have been sold its worth as the “great equalizer”. Wrong! The premise of the design is to even out the advantage of having an early pick by reversing the draft order in the next round, thus giving everyone the same chance. But this does not happen in evenly balanced leagues. The sad reality is that a draft spot in the top half of the draft gives you a slight advantage over those in the bottom half of the draft. I would argue the advantage is as much as 10 percent (even greater if you get one of the top three picks).
What is the Serpentine draft method? It reverses the draft order every round to compensate for the obvious disadvantages. So in a 14 team league, team #1 with the first pick in round 1 (pick 1.01 or the 1st pick overall) would get the last pick in round two (pick 2.14; 28th overall). In every odd-numbered draft round team 1 gets the first pick and in every even-numbered round they get the last pick. So the order goes like this 1-14, 14-1, 1-14, 14-1 and so on reversing order every round, kind of like a snake (hence the Serpentine moniker). Sounds fair enough, right? The first shall be last and all that jazz. The team with the last pick in round 1, team 14 gets pick 1.14 (14th overall) and pick 2.01 (15th overall). So while not exactly glad to be last, that owner does feel compensated since they get two of the first 15 picks. But is it enough?
How can one weigh the importance of a draft pick? Draft spot calculators take a draft pick and try to quantify them with a value. Using my own Trade Analyzer (from either of my books “Fantasy Football Guidebook” or “Fantasy Football Almanac 2011”-out May 15th) shows that in the Serpentine system team 1 has a substantial advantage over all of the other teams when his picks are weighted using a picks calculator.
Serpentine Draft (1-14, 14-1, 1-14, 14-1)
Pick (Overall Pick) Value
Team 1 1.01 (1st) 378
Team 1 2.14 (28th) 174
Team 1 3.01 (29th) 171
Team 1 4.14 (56th) 106
Total Value in First 4 Rounds in Serpentine = 829
Pick (Overall Pick) Value
Team 2 1.14 (14th) 247
Team 2 2.01 (15th) 240
Team 2 3.14 (42nd) 134
Team 2 4.01 (43rd) 132
Total Value in First 4 Rounds in Serpentine = 753 (76 less than Team 1)
Team 1 with the 1st, 28th , 29th and 56th picks of the first 4 rounds has a 76 point advantage over the last team to pick, Team 14 with the 14th, 15th, 42nd and 43rd picks overall. That value equates to a free 6th round pick for Team 1.
As you can see, not only is the first pick so valuable but the third pick (1st pick in the 3rd round) is as well. As the draft progresses the value of each pick decreases. The first pick is worth much more than the 280th pick (last pick in a 20 round, 14-team draft). Therefore, even though the Serpentine draft continues to give Team 1 advantages every two rounds, that advantage diminishes progressively as the draft continues. This occurs for several other reasons. First, the quality of player depth (and thus value) decreases with every pick after the first pick. Simply put “the pickings get slimmer as the draft progresses” and you cannot get better value with your picks as you make your way to the end. Second, Value Based Drafting (VBD) tends to taper off in the late to middle rounds (at 100 picks overall) because teams end up drafting for team needs rather than getting the best value player. Team needs make a team get a handcuff, back up or starter at a lower skill position versus the best player available. So if a team needs a TE in the 14th round, having the 1st pick or the 14th pick that round is of little consequence as they are going to get a TE regardless.
Therefore, it is not just the 1st pick of the draft but also the 3rd round pick as well that causes the unfairness towards the higher pick teams. The trade calculator supports the theory of unfairness. But what about your draft results? Several recent studies have shown that, when large numbers of leagues (we are talking about tens of thousands per year) are examined, the top 50% of draft spots win their leagues 60% of the time.
What about the perception of which draft pick is the best. If I offered you my 12th spot in exchange for your 1st spot, would you do it? Most would say no. If the top spots are not willing to trade with the lower spot than there is a perceived inequality of draft spots. Until we have a system where any draft spot is considered just as favorable, then we have an unfair system. Think about it this way. If you knew the outcome of the upcoming season, every player’s eventual statistics for the next year; which draft spot would you want to have?
I am not denying that anyone can win from any draft spot in any given year. It is just that some draft spots have a better chance. It is like playing the lottery. Anyone can win, but the person who already knows one of the numbers has a better chance of winning.
How can we fix it? Auction drafts are by far the fairest and have no draft spot bias. Third round reversal is also an option in which case the 2nd and 3rd rounds are reversed. But even that seems to have a small bias. The bonsai draft method reverses the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds and seems to be the closest thing to fair other than an auction draft.
Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669
Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634
Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650
Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428693
“Say it isn’t so Joe”. The main reason most of us do the Serpentine Draft method in the first place is because we have been sold its worth as the “great equalizer”. Wrong! The premise of the design is to even out the advantage of having an early pick by reversing the draft order in the next round, thus giving everyone the same chance. But this does not happen in evenly balanced leagues. The sad reality is that a draft spot in the top half of the draft gives you a slight advantage over those in the bottom half of the draft. I would argue the advantage is as much as 10 percent (even greater if you get one of the top three picks).
What is the Serpentine draft method? It reverses the draft order every round to compensate for the obvious disadvantages. So in a 14 team league, team #1 with the first pick in round 1 (pick 1.01 or the 1st pick overall) would get the last pick in round two (pick 2.14; 28th overall). In every odd-numbered draft round team 1 gets the first pick and in every even-numbered round they get the last pick. So the order goes like this 1-14, 14-1, 1-14, 14-1 and so on reversing order every round, kind of like a snake (hence the Serpentine moniker). Sounds fair enough, right? The first shall be last and all that jazz. The team with the last pick in round 1, team 14 gets pick 1.14 (14th overall) and pick 2.01 (15th overall). So while not exactly glad to be last, that owner does feel compensated since they get two of the first 15 picks. But is it enough?
How can one weigh the importance of a draft pick? Draft spot calculators take a draft pick and try to quantify them with a value. Using my own Trade Analyzer (from either of my books “Fantasy Football Guidebook” or “Fantasy Football Almanac 2011”-out May 15th) shows that in the Serpentine system team 1 has a substantial advantage over all of the other teams when his picks are weighted using a picks calculator.
Serpentine Draft (1-14, 14-1, 1-14, 14-1)
Pick (Overall Pick) Value
Team 1 1.01 (1st) 378
Team 1 2.14 (28th) 174
Team 1 3.01 (29th) 171
Team 1 4.14 (56th) 106
Total Value in First 4 Rounds in Serpentine = 829
Pick (Overall Pick) Value
Team 2 1.14 (14th) 247
Team 2 2.01 (15th) 240
Team 2 3.14 (42nd) 134
Team 2 4.01 (43rd) 132
Total Value in First 4 Rounds in Serpentine = 753 (76 less than Team 1)
Team 1 with the 1st, 28th , 29th and 56th picks of the first 4 rounds has a 76 point advantage over the last team to pick, Team 14 with the 14th, 15th, 42nd and 43rd picks overall. That value equates to a free 6th round pick for Team 1.
As you can see, not only is the first pick so valuable but the third pick (1st pick in the 3rd round) is as well. As the draft progresses the value of each pick decreases. The first pick is worth much more than the 280th pick (last pick in a 20 round, 14-team draft). Therefore, even though the Serpentine draft continues to give Team 1 advantages every two rounds, that advantage diminishes progressively as the draft continues. This occurs for several other reasons. First, the quality of player depth (and thus value) decreases with every pick after the first pick. Simply put “the pickings get slimmer as the draft progresses” and you cannot get better value with your picks as you make your way to the end. Second, Value Based Drafting (VBD) tends to taper off in the late to middle rounds (at 100 picks overall) because teams end up drafting for team needs rather than getting the best value player. Team needs make a team get a handcuff, back up or starter at a lower skill position versus the best player available. So if a team needs a TE in the 14th round, having the 1st pick or the 14th pick that round is of little consequence as they are going to get a TE regardless.
Therefore, it is not just the 1st pick of the draft but also the 3rd round pick as well that causes the unfairness towards the higher pick teams. The trade calculator supports the theory of unfairness. But what about your draft results? Several recent studies have shown that, when large numbers of leagues (we are talking about tens of thousands per year) are examined, the top 50% of draft spots win their leagues 60% of the time.
What about the perception of which draft pick is the best. If I offered you my 12th spot in exchange for your 1st spot, would you do it? Most would say no. If the top spots are not willing to trade with the lower spot than there is a perceived inequality of draft spots. Until we have a system where any draft spot is considered just as favorable, then we have an unfair system. Think about it this way. If you knew the outcome of the upcoming season, every player’s eventual statistics for the next year; which draft spot would you want to have?
I am not denying that anyone can win from any draft spot in any given year. It is just that some draft spots have a better chance. It is like playing the lottery. Anyone can win, but the person who already knows one of the numbers has a better chance of winning.
How can we fix it? Auction drafts are by far the fairest and have no draft spot bias. Third round reversal is also an option in which case the 2nd and 3rd rounds are reversed. But even that seems to have a small bias. The bonsai draft method reverses the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds and seems to be the closest thing to fair other than an auction draft.
Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669
Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634
Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650
Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428693
Monday, August 10, 2009
Fantasy Football Index Expert Auction Draft
Now that the Fantasy Football magazines have hit the bookstore shelves, I can discuss some of my expert teams. Today I am analyzing my Fantasy Football Index Mock Auction team. You can find the entire draft along with my rankings in Fantasy Football Index 2009 Draft Guide on the following pages;
Fantasy Expert Player Rankings page 44-61 (Including a Question and Answer Interview on Tight Ends on page 61
Expert Mock Auction pages 68-73
11 Experts (Including Chris Harris-ESPN, Dave Gerczak-BFD FF, David Dodds-FFGuys and Scott Pianowksi-Yahoo!) and 1 Fantasy Index reader particapated on May 17 in this auction. Each team starts with a $200 auction budget and must pick 22 players for a starting roster of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 DEF.
Last year I finished a close second to Ian Allen after leading for much of the final stretch. A hurt MB3 wrecked any chance of holding on to first place.
It is a DraftMasters (or DraftExperts) format. This means it is a best ball format where there are no free agent pickups during the season. So it is a “draft and forget” league where the computer will automatically start the player with the best performance for the week for you. My team is below with the bid cost.
Fantasy Football Guidebook
QB Donovan McNabb 16
Carson Palmer 11
RB Chris Johnson 48
Brandon Jacobs 36
Larry Johnson 15
Ahmad Bradshaw 5
LaMont Jordan 1
Michael Pittman 1
WR Anquan Boldin 19
Antonio Bryant 11
Lance Moore 8
Kevin Curtis 5
Derrick Mason 4
Devery Henderson 3
Patrick Crayton 2
Austin Collie 1
TE Owen Daniels 6
Brandon Pettigrew 2
K Nick Folk 1
Shayne Graham 1
DEF Chicago Bears 2
Baltimore Ravens 2
Overall I think it is fairly strong at every position except WR. I am hoping that Boldin and Bryant can be good enough WR1 and WR2 and the others can come up with a WR3 every week I have two NO WRs in Lance Moore and D Henderson so I am hoping for a good year again for Drew Brees. Kevin Curtis could surprise if the rookie J Maclin is slow to produce for Phil.
In the magazine, they ask me to discuss my outlook for Larry Johnson.
“I am cautiously optimsitic about LJ as he and KC seem to have kissed and made up. He had a good rushing avg in 2008 (4.5 yards per carry) and with Matt Cassel at QB should not see as many eight-man fronts. He is Kansas City’s starter and I see a healthy LJ with 1,250 yards and 8 TDs.”
Best picks: Either QB and Owen Daniels for $6 I think he could be a Top 5 TE this year.
Regrets: Pulling the trigger on Chris Johnson for $48. I wish I had waited and gotten two lesser RBs for $40 and saved some of those dollars for later in the draft. $1 later in the draft is worth a ton more than $1 early on when bidding is crazy!
Read more in Fantasy Index Magazine in stores now!
Sam Hendricks, author
Fantasy Football Tips ($9.95) http://www.amazon.com/0982428669
Fantasy Football Guidebook: Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95 on sale for $17.95) http://www.amazon.com/1602640203
Fantasy Expert Player Rankings page 44-61 (Including a Question and Answer Interview on Tight Ends on page 61
Expert Mock Auction pages 68-73
11 Experts (Including Chris Harris-ESPN, Dave Gerczak-BFD FF, David Dodds-FFGuys and Scott Pianowksi-Yahoo!) and 1 Fantasy Index reader particapated on May 17 in this auction. Each team starts with a $200 auction budget and must pick 22 players for a starting roster of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 DEF.
Last year I finished a close second to Ian Allen after leading for much of the final stretch. A hurt MB3 wrecked any chance of holding on to first place.
It is a DraftMasters (or DraftExperts) format. This means it is a best ball format where there are no free agent pickups during the season. So it is a “draft and forget” league where the computer will automatically start the player with the best performance for the week for you. My team is below with the bid cost.
Fantasy Football Guidebook
QB Donovan McNabb 16
Carson Palmer 11
RB Chris Johnson 48
Brandon Jacobs 36
Larry Johnson 15
Ahmad Bradshaw 5
LaMont Jordan 1
Michael Pittman 1
WR Anquan Boldin 19
Antonio Bryant 11
Lance Moore 8
Kevin Curtis 5
Derrick Mason 4
Devery Henderson 3
Patrick Crayton 2
Austin Collie 1
TE Owen Daniels 6
Brandon Pettigrew 2
K Nick Folk 1
Shayne Graham 1
DEF Chicago Bears 2
Baltimore Ravens 2
Overall I think it is fairly strong at every position except WR. I am hoping that Boldin and Bryant can be good enough WR1 and WR2 and the others can come up with a WR3 every week I have two NO WRs in Lance Moore and D Henderson so I am hoping for a good year again for Drew Brees. Kevin Curtis could surprise if the rookie J Maclin is slow to produce for Phil.
In the magazine, they ask me to discuss my outlook for Larry Johnson.
“I am cautiously optimsitic about LJ as he and KC seem to have kissed and made up. He had a good rushing avg in 2008 (4.5 yards per carry) and with Matt Cassel at QB should not see as many eight-man fronts. He is Kansas City’s starter and I see a healthy LJ with 1,250 yards and 8 TDs.”
Best picks: Either QB and Owen Daniels for $6 I think he could be a Top 5 TE this year.
Regrets: Pulling the trigger on Chris Johnson for $48. I wish I had waited and gotten two lesser RBs for $40 and saved some of those dollars for later in the draft. $1 later in the draft is worth a ton more than $1 early on when bidding is crazy!
Read more in Fantasy Index Magazine in stores now!
Sam Hendricks, author
Fantasy Football Tips ($9.95) http://www.amazon.com/0982428669
Fantasy Football Guidebook: Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95 on sale for $17.95) http://www.amazon.com/1602640203
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