Ok, how many of you out there are in the office Super Bowl pool? No need to raise your hands as everyone knows there's no gambling here at Bushwood, judge Snails. So lets hypothetically say that you are in a SB pool for .... the right to say you won. No money involved, no matchsticks, no jellybeans right...
So what are your odds of winning this 100 square pool? Everyone should know that these pools are totally random. The 10 x 10 square grid (10 squares for the home team score and 10 for the visitors score) is a office pool certainty about now.
10 numbers between 0-9 are randomly drawn for each square corresponding to each team. You end up with a grid where the two numbers intersect in one of the 100 squares. The number associated with each team needs to match the last digit of their score. For example, NYG 7 means a winner if the Giants have 7, 17, 27, 37, 47, 57 etc you get the picture. Match both teams numbers with your square and you have a winner.
If you were to play for ....jellybeans then each quarter could yield an equal winner. Say 25 jellybeans for each quarter winner (assuming each square costs a JB). Or give all 100 to the Final score winner. I like to build the suspense and give 5 to the 1st QTR winner, 10 to the half time score winner, 15 to the 3rd quarter winner and 20 to the fourth quarter winner and 50 to the final score winner. This way you are covered in case there is a OT. If no OT then the 4th QTR/Final Score winner gets 70.
But what are your chances of winning. Which numbers or combination of numbers is good and by how much?
0 is a good number because the score starts out at that and then 10 and 20 are good possibilities.
1 is OK since 21 (3 TDs) happens quite often but do not count too much on 11 or 31. So better as a QTR. But 01 is not possible so a little less desirable than say 4
2 terrible
3 Good since FGs often lead to 3 and 13.
4 Better then 1 because more 4 is possible ( work with me 2 safeties right) but more because 14 and 24 are prominent scores
5 terrible
6 Can happen especially early
7 Best number to have since it is the basis of TDs. 07, 17, 27 all look good.
8 terrible
9 Not that good.
Early in the game 0, 3 and 7
Late anything can happen
Lets look at combinations
Best combos (Can be reversed and equal same chance so 7/0 has same % as 0/7)
0/0 7.2% winning chance
7/0 5.6%
3/0 4.7%
7/7 3.9% I would thought this would be higher
7/3 3.6%
3/3 3.3%
0/4 3.1%
7/4 2.8%
Worst Combos (Never won final score)
1/1
1/2
most of them with 2, 5 or 8
3/9 surprise
9/9
Conclusions-Top 15 squares have 55% chance of winning. There are 46 squares who have not won. So half of the squares have virtually no chance of winning and 15 have the best chance. The rich get richer and the poor get poorer.
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