A lot of no-name, or at least lightly regarded, wide receivers are having big seasons. Has the production of undrafted fantasy players like Brandon Lloyd and Steve Johnson made you more or less likely to focus on the position in early rounds of drafts next year?
I always advocate in my books that the best draft strategy is to stockpile RBs and WRs early (and often) while waiting on QB. Usually this means drafting something like 4 RBs, 3 WRs and a top TE with the first 8 picks (depending on what falls to you of course). Typically this results in a RB-WR-WR-RB or RB-WR-RB-WR start. You still need to focus on WR early in the draft, but as seen in the numbers mentioned a strong RB base is more important. Why? You can get good WRs and QBs off the waiver wire. But few RBs and top TEs are there.
ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly at http://www.fantasyindex.com/ with answers to a new question posted Thursday morning.
Sam Hendricks is the author of Fantasy Football Guidebook, Fantasy Football Tips, Fantasy Football Basics and Fantasy Football Almanac 2010, all available at his website, http://www.ffguidebook.com/, at all major bookstores, and at http://www.amazon.com/. He is a 20-year fantasy football veteran who regularly participates in the World Championship of Fantasy Football (WCOFF), National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) and finished 7th and 16th overall (out of 228 top players) in the 2008 and 2009 Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC).
Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669
Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634
Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650
Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428693
Showing posts with label WR. Show all posts
Showing posts with label WR. Show all posts
Friday, December 3, 2010
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Sleepers players-Who will be the 2009 Fantasy Football Sleepers?
Time to look at who could be significant Sleeper candidates in 2009. Remember by definition sleeper is someone who is not expected to do well and far exceeds their expectations. So sometimes it will depend on what the "expected stats" are to begin with that determines how much they exceed them. In other words it is easy to exceed low expectations.
If anyone tells you that they know who the Sleepers will be for sure, ignore them completely because nobody knows with certainty who will shine. But I can offer a few possibilites and why:
QB
Trent Edwards, BUF-Any QB throwing to two Top 30 WRs deserves consideration for Top 10 performance. On most rankings he is 17th.
Kyle Orton, DEN-If (this is a big IF) Marshall plays nice, then Orton has two Top 30 WRs and a decent TE option in Scheffler. He is projected at QB18 now. That is a lot of room for improvement.
RB
Cedric Benson, CIN-Had a good finish to 2008 and could keep it going if he can fend off Bernard Scott who looks to be pushing him. Either are good candidates for Sleeper.
Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG-The #2 at the Giants will be more of a RBBC then most. Current ranking is around 40ish. But an injury to Jacobs pushes Bradshaw into the Top 15 and if not he could be top 30 even in a time-share.
WR
Nate Burleson, SEA-A healthy Hassleback and TJH to watch by the better corners means Burleson may have some good looks this year.
Chris Henry would get the other nod but he is screaming up the rankings so people are aware of him based on his preseason performance. Instead I will pick James Jones GB. He and GB look to have a great season ahead as A. Rodgers starts his first week 1 without a huge cloud called Favre overhead.
TE
Brent Celek, PHI-McNabb (and or Vick) will take advantage of having a healthy TE permanently on the field.
Brandon Pettigrew, DET-Rookies usually do not see the field much their first year, but DET is desperate. Expect bigger things from Pettigrew especially if he gets Stafford to start with them as Stafford-Pettigrew may become a household phrase in the Big D.
K
Vinateri, IND-IND will not be as good this year in terms of offensive production, Peyton has been sacked way too many times this preseason. So look for more FGs and less TDs. Adam is ranked conservatively at K15. He makes a nice choice for Top 5.
Shayne Graham, CIN- Ranked K17 in many polls if the Bengals have a healthy Palmer look for more scoring. Their Def was not as bad last year as everyone thinks.
Defense/ST
Green Bay-Switched to the 3-4 and the offense looks to be clicking on all cylinders too.
Arizona-They have an easy Fantasy Playoff stretch, as they face @SF, @DET and STL in weeks 14-16.
Sam Hendricks, Author:
Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($9.95, www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669)
Fantasy Football Guidebook: Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95 on sale for $17.95) http://www.amazon.com/1602640203
Fantasy Football Almanac 2009: The Essential Fantasy Football Reference Guide ($12.95, http://www.amazon.com/1602643989)
If anyone tells you that they know who the Sleepers will be for sure, ignore them completely because nobody knows with certainty who will shine. But I can offer a few possibilites and why:
QB
Trent Edwards, BUF-Any QB throwing to two Top 30 WRs deserves consideration for Top 10 performance. On most rankings he is 17th.
Kyle Orton, DEN-If (this is a big IF) Marshall plays nice, then Orton has two Top 30 WRs and a decent TE option in Scheffler. He is projected at QB18 now. That is a lot of room for improvement.
RB
Cedric Benson, CIN-Had a good finish to 2008 and could keep it going if he can fend off Bernard Scott who looks to be pushing him. Either are good candidates for Sleeper.
Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG-The #2 at the Giants will be more of a RBBC then most. Current ranking is around 40ish. But an injury to Jacobs pushes Bradshaw into the Top 15 and if not he could be top 30 even in a time-share.
WR
Nate Burleson, SEA-A healthy Hassleback and TJH to watch by the better corners means Burleson may have some good looks this year.
Chris Henry would get the other nod but he is screaming up the rankings so people are aware of him based on his preseason performance. Instead I will pick James Jones GB. He and GB look to have a great season ahead as A. Rodgers starts his first week 1 without a huge cloud called Favre overhead.
TE
Brent Celek, PHI-McNabb (and or Vick) will take advantage of having a healthy TE permanently on the field.
Brandon Pettigrew, DET-Rookies usually do not see the field much their first year, but DET is desperate. Expect bigger things from Pettigrew especially if he gets Stafford to start with them as Stafford-Pettigrew may become a household phrase in the Big D.
K
Vinateri, IND-IND will not be as good this year in terms of offensive production, Peyton has been sacked way too many times this preseason. So look for more FGs and less TDs. Adam is ranked conservatively at K15. He makes a nice choice for Top 5.
Shayne Graham, CIN- Ranked K17 in many polls if the Bengals have a healthy Palmer look for more scoring. Their Def was not as bad last year as everyone thinks.
Defense/ST
Green Bay-Switched to the 3-4 and the offense looks to be clicking on all cylinders too.
Arizona-They have an easy Fantasy Playoff stretch, as they face @SF, @DET and STL in weeks 14-16.
Sam Hendricks, Author:
Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($9.95, www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669)
Fantasy Football Guidebook: Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95 on sale for $17.95) http://www.amazon.com/1602640203
Fantasy Football Almanac 2009: The Essential Fantasy Football Reference Guide ($12.95, http://www.amazon.com/1602643989)
Friday, August 21, 2009
Tip # 206 Whom to choose with last draft pick
Assuming I already have a kicker, defense or TE, it all depends on my depth at other positions. Normally I look at my team and the big three positions: QB, RB and WR. Which of those three positions am I weakest? That will be the position I need to bump up with an additional sleeper that I can hopefully hit on. Having said that, if all else is equal, I will go with a WR since they are more likely to breakout and be the difference maker. By the last round, there are not too many RBs or QBs who can make a difference.
Remember performance is based on opportunity and talent. So go with younger WRs instead of the old vet. The veteran has had his day and now is in the twilight of his career, he is more likely to fade then shine. The 2-4 year WR has mastered the system and can now prove his worth if given the opportunity.
Fantasy Football Tips ($9.95, www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669)
Fantasy Football Guidebook: Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95 on sale for $17.95) http://www.amazon.com/1602640203
Remember performance is based on opportunity and talent. So go with younger WRs instead of the old vet. The veteran has had his day and now is in the twilight of his career, he is more likely to fade then shine. The 2-4 year WR has mastered the system and can now prove his worth if given the opportunity.
Fantasy Football Tips ($9.95, www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669)
Fantasy Football Guidebook: Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95 on sale for $17.95) http://www.amazon.com/1602640203
Friday, January 23, 2009
WR Fantasy Football Rankings and Projections for 2009
1 Andre Johnson HOU 105 1500 8 303
2 Larry Fitzgerald AZ 95 1400 10 295
3 Anquan Boldin AZ 100 1200 12 292
4 Brandon Marshal DEN 100 1400 8 288
5 Greg Jennings GB 80 1300 10 270
6 Roddy White ATL 85 1400 7 267
7 Steve Smith CAR 80 1400 7 262
8 Calvin Johnson DET 75 1300 9 259
9 Marques Colston NO 75 1300 9 259
10 Reggie Wayne IND 80 1200 9 254
11 Randy Moss NE 80 1100 10 250
12 Wes Welker NE 110 1200 3 248
13 Dwayne Bowe KC 90 1100 8 248
14 Terrell Owens DAL 70 1000 10 230
15 Antonio Bryant TB 70 1100 8 228
16 TJ Houshmandz+ CIN? 95 1000 5 225
17 Braylon Edwards CLE 70 1000 9 224
18 Lance Moore NO 75 1000 8 223
19 Chad Johnson CIN? 70 1100 7 222
20 Eddie Royal DEN 90 1000 5 220
Visit www.FFGuidebook.com/ for more 2009 Player Rankings and Projections
2 Larry Fitzgerald AZ 95 1400 10 295
3 Anquan Boldin AZ 100 1200 12 292
4 Brandon Marshal DEN 100 1400 8 288
5 Greg Jennings GB 80 1300 10 270
6 Roddy White ATL 85 1400 7 267
7 Steve Smith CAR 80 1400 7 262
8 Calvin Johnson DET 75 1300 9 259
9 Marques Colston NO 75 1300 9 259
10 Reggie Wayne IND 80 1200 9 254
11 Randy Moss NE 80 1100 10 250
12 Wes Welker NE 110 1200 3 248
13 Dwayne Bowe KC 90 1100 8 248
14 Terrell Owens DAL 70 1000 10 230
15 Antonio Bryant TB 70 1100 8 228
16 TJ Houshmandz+ CIN? 95 1000 5 225
17 Braylon Edwards CLE 70 1000 9 224
18 Lance Moore NO 75 1000 8 223
19 Chad Johnson CIN? 70 1100 7 222
20 Eddie Royal DEN 90 1000 5 220
Visit www.FFGuidebook.com/ for more 2009 Player Rankings and Projections
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