Week 5 4th place finish for Sam Hendricks (www.FFGuidebook.com) in 411Fantasy Experts contest

Following up my week 2 2nd place finish with a week 5... 4th place (out of 50 Experts)  finish.

"A three-way tie for fourth place followed: Jake Ciley (RotoExpers), Alessandro Miglio (Pro Football Focus) and Sam Hendricks (FF Guidebook) had 18 apeice. Hendricks was the only expert to select Alex Smith over Mark Sanchez, Jason Campbell or Kevin Kolb." from http://www.411fantasy.com/

Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650


Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634


Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634

Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428693

Fantasy Soccer: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Football/Fantasy Soccer ($14.95)
http://www.amazon.com/dp/1936635070

Fantasy Football Tip #216 Take advantage of your leagues drops especially around week 5 and the byes

After 5 weeks, it is time to really evaluate who you have, what you have and where you need to improve. Some of those studs at the draft have faltered due to injuries  (Peyton Manning, Andre Johnson anyone) or just loss of a job (Tim Hightower possibly). Others who were under the radar have popped up as studs (Cam Newton, Fred Jackson, Eric Decker, Rob Gronkowski, John Kasay, SF DEF). Some players have been dropped by other teams in your league that are valuable additions. Start by looking at who the top teams in your league have dropped recently. You are more likely to find good players dropped from good teams then find good players dropped from bad teams. Although the later the season progresses the less this phenomenon is seen. Generally, towards week 8 and onwards drastic measures are needed by bad teams to have any success and therefore they may have to give up hope on a potentially good player.

Look at the free agents available by position. Some will be one week wonders with big scores in one of those four or five weeks but little else to show. Others will be slowly progressing toward a productive season. Seek out those who have improved or who you have reason to believe can improve.

Why do good players get dropped? Sometimes it is a slow start (DeAngelo Williams CAR RB, Reggie Bush MIA). Sometimes it could be a lingering injury (Braylon Edwards, Lee Evans, Earl Bennett) or a young gun who has jumped in front of the vet (Chris Cooley supplanted by Fred Davis?). In any case, now after the first bye week is the time to start looking for those hidden gems in the free agent bin.

Players available now in some leagues:

QB Sam Bradford, Jason Campbell
RB Ryan Torrain (ok not after last weeks pickups but you get my drift),
WR Brian Hartline, Preston Parker, DHB
TE Evan Moore, Ben Watson, Jeremey Shockey, V Shinacothe
K Dan Bailey DAL
DEF SF, TEN, WAS, NYG, NE

Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650


Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634


Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634

Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428693

Fantasy Soccer: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Football/Fantasy Soccer ($14.95)
http://www.amazon.com/dp/1936635070

Week 5 Start em/Sit'em and who is in and out

Week 5 Start em/Sit'em and who is in and out.
I will begin with who is in and out then move on to the starters I like. I am leaving out the obvious starters so you will not see Aaron Rogers or Adrian Peterson here guys.

IN (New starters)
Isaac Redman (RB PIT) (Mendenhall NETP)
Curtis Painter (QB IND)
Steven Ridley (RB NE) (D Woodhead is Not expected to play (NETP)
Jonathan Baldwin (WR KC)
Danny Ware (RB NYG) (B Jacobs NETP)

OUT
Chad Henne for season (Matt Moore replaced him after this weeks bye)
Andre Johnson (WR HOU)
Danny Amendola (WR STL) for season
Eddie Royal (WR DEN)
Earl Bennett (WR CHI)
Mike Williams (WR SEA)
Braylon Edwards (WR SF)

START
QB Matt Ryan, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Eli Manning, Mark Sanchez, Donovan McNabb
RB Ahmad Bradshaw, Ryan Mathews, Darren Sproles, J Addai, Isaac Redman, Dexter McCluster
WR Julio Jones, AJ Green, Eric Decker, Sidney Rice, Nate Washington, Jacoby Jones, Jordy Nelson
TE Owen Daniels, Tony G, Dustin Keller, J Gresham

SIT
QB Hasselback, Campbell, Orton, Cutler, Rothelisberger
RB Ryan Grant, DeAngelo Williams, Pierre Thomas, Mendenhall, Brandon Jacobs, Shonn Greene and NE RB
WR Austin Collie, Brandon LeFell, Andre Roberts, Devery Henderson, Jacoby Ford, * Dont bench Wes Welker just because he is on Revis Island (Shutdown CB Darrelle Revis covers him this week)
TE Brent Celek, Ballard (NYG), T. Scheffler, A Gates,

Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650


Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669

Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634

Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428693

Fantasy Soccer: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Football/Fantasy Soccer ($14.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/1936635011

Ask the Expert Question: Which preseason favorite will continue their downward spiral?

Several preseason favorites (Eagles, Cowboys, Jets, pick your own) struggled in the season's first month. Which of these teams will continue its downward spiral -- and take some of its biggest fantasy performers down with it?

Excluding the obvious favorite-turned-nightmare team IND, then next in line has to be PIT. Their terrible offensive line (injuries are killing them) will continue to be a problem for the entire year. Injuries to Big Ben and Mendenhall in week 4 will not help (OK maybe I. Redman is an improvement to the side stepping Mendy). Even an easy schedule may not be enough to get the Steelers back in the playoffs, much less the big dance. You may be able to gather some fantasy relevant points by playing the matchups, but of the big five disappointments from the favorites, Pittsburgh is most likely to continue to disappoint.



ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly at http://www.fantasyindex.com/
 with answers to a new question posted Thursday morning.

Sam Hendricks is the author of Fantasy Football Guidebook, Fantasy Football Tips, Fantasy Football Basics and Fantasy Football Almanac 2011, all available at his website, http://www.ffguidebook.com/, at all major bookstores, and at http://www.amazon.com/. He is a 20-year fantasy football veteran who regularly participates in the World Championship of Fantasy Football (WCOFF), National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) and finished 7th and 16th overall (out of 228 top players) in the 2008 and 2009 Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC).

Fantasy Football Almanac 2011: The Essential Fantasy Football Reference Guide (10.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/1936635003

Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669

Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634

Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650

Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428693

Fantasy Football (Soccer to Yanks): The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Football/Fantasy Soccer ($14.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/1936635011

Week 4 Results for FFGuidebook.com leagues, 8 wins 3 losses. Best seen to date!

11 leagues this year. In my defense 5 of the 11 are Expert leagues and the remaining 6 are money leagues. One is the high stakes Fantasy Football Players Championship (www.theFFPC.com). Lets see how I did last week. Follow along by using the links to each league.

Money Leagues first ("Show me the money")

Fantasy Football Players Championship (www.theFFPC.com) Main Event League #58 "I may be dumb, but I'm not stupid"                                                                          Win (3-1, 7th in total points)
http://leagues.myffpc.com/cgi-bin/welcome_page?UID=v2w2li9480bh23b65x5k5l1wtir1m1t&LN=102561&U=908283&EID1=27587&OPER=1770

FootballGuys Players Championship (FPC) League 09.07.10b                  Loss (2-2, lost yet improved to 3rd in TP go figure)
http://leagues.myffpc.com/cgi-bin/welcome_page?UID=eaz8jz779lupe4w49551ep5x285949j&LN=92918&USER=908283&EID1=27472&OPER=1770

FootballGuys Players Championship (FPC) League 09.06.10j                    Tough Loss (1-3, yet improved to 7th in TP)
http://leagues.myffpc.com/cgi-bin/welcome_page?UID=wch618nn98f0rb011b782q922f3662r&LN=102417&USER=908283&EID1=26940&OPER=1770


National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) $125 Satellitte League  Win (3-0-1, 2nd in TP)
http://nffc.stats.com/football/reports/league_home.asp

NFFC Private Auction League                                                                        Win (4-0, 3rd in TP)

Local League                                                                                                    Win (4-0, 1st in TP)

Money League Outcomes 4-2 (now we're talking) (For the season 14-6-1 pretty good!)

Expert Leagues

Fantasy Sports Writers Association (FSWA)  League/Division 3 "Jay Clemons" Win (2-2, 3rd TP)
http://blue.rtsports.com/cgi-bin/display_standings?LN=55559&UID=0zp23f3k07b2f7rn0o3n8qzxxu29r94&TN=4764594&X=1316889097900

Fantasy Football Index Magazine Expert Auction League (Draft Masters but play every team each week)                                                                                                              Win 10-1 (18-26)
http://goalline.rtsports.com/cgi-bin/display_standings?LN=100828&UID=94m1czr95356fbq3406bidw7k8mhu34&TN=4854786&X=1316889246868


Fantasy Football Pro Forecast Magazine Expert League                                   Loss (0-4, 12 TP)
http://www23.myfantasyleague.com/2011/home/32210#0

Fantasy Football Pro Forecast Magazine Expert PPR League                            Win (2-2, 3rd in total points)
http://www23.myfantasyleague.com/2011/home/60587#0


Pros vs Joes FFPC League 2 "Caspers Ghost Hunters" (Draft Masters) Win Improved to 7th in points
http://leagues.myffpc.com/cgi-bin/welcome_page?UID=q7ko74ga3116fg3wq991ak2egp3p15l&LN=93779&USER=908283&EID1=19316&OPER=1770

Note the Draft Masters leagues are draft and forget with no trades/adds or drops. The computer optimizes your lineup each week. So it is essentially a draft and forget league with no options to correct for injuries or status changes.

Experts League Outcomes 4-1

Overall out of 11 leagues 8-3 (overall 25-18-1)

Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650


Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669

Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634
Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428693

Fantasy Soccer: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Football/Fantasy Soccer ($14.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/1936635011

Week 5 Waiver Wire Wannabees-Who to Add and Who to drop

First remember that Week 5 starts the bye week debacle. So who is out this week?
BAL, CLE, DAL, MIA, STL and WAS all get a week off to watch the competition. And in DAL and MIA's case to heal.

OUT in Week 5
QB: Flacco, McCoy, Romo, Henne/Matt Moore?, Sam Bradford and Rex Grossman (who almost looked like bad rex this week-is Halloween that close?)
RB: Ray Rice, Peyton Hillis, Felix Jones, the MIA RB dejour, Steven Jackson (just as he gets healthy) and the new Redskin RB Ryan Torrain
WR: A Boldin, T Smith (not so hot in Week 4 but they tried to get him the touches), no CLE WRs worth caring about, M Austin (should be back Wk 6), Dez Bryant and L Robinson (remember him from STL), Brandon Marshall, any STL WR?, Santana Moss
TE: Ed Dickson, Jason Witten, Fred Davis

Who is good to pick up to start for this week? Leaving the obvious startes off this is a list of some who may be on the waiver wire and added as a stop gap measure.
QB: Donovan McNabb has a decent matchup vs AZ if you can stomach that he might be pulled, Alex Smith, Kyle Orton and Curtis Painter too
RB: Isaac Redman (PIT), Darren Sproles (may be back on WW), Ryan Torrain WAS (even though he is on a bye), Steven Ridley (NE), LT, Earnest Graham
WR: Jacoby Jones/Kevin Walter should see more balls with Andre Johnson out (possibly 3 weeks), Percy Harvin if available, Antonio Brown if Charlie Batch plays for Ben, Michael Crabtree, Steve Breaston and DHB are all better plays this week and should be on the WW
TE: Todd Heap (KC), and Visanthe Shiancoe
K: Ryan Longwell (yes Vikes come on in Week 5), Olindo Mare (CAR)
DEF: KC, CIN and IND

Who is good to pick up for long term


QB: Jason Campbell is still out there in some leagues, Matt Moore MIA if desperate for a week 6 possible starter,
RB: Ryan Torrain WAS, Isaac Redman (if available-doubt it), Tashard Choice, Keiland Williams GL vulture,
WR: Jacoby Jones/Kevin Walter should see more balls with Andre Johnson out (possibly 3 weeks), Steve Breaston, Laurent Robinson but may be sqeezed out when Miles Austin returns in week 6, Donnie Avery sleeper
TE: Ben Watson (CLE), Heath Miller (PIT), James Casey (HOU) (may be in RB section since he is a FB too)

Droppables: Andre Roberts WR AZ, Chris Cooley TE WAS, Derrick Ward RB HOU, Chester Taylor RB AZ, LeRon McClain RB KC, Mike Williams WR SEA,

Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650


Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669

Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634
Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428693

Fantasy Soccer: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Football/Fantasy Soccer ($14.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/1936635011

Fantasy Football Tip #215: Use bye weeks to block opponents waiver moves

Fantasy Football Tip #215 simply adding to the 201 tips already in the book Fantasy Football Tips by Sam Hendricks.

If you have played the last 4 weeks on auto-pilot (not looking too closely at your opponent) now is the time to start focusing on his roster and his weaknesses! Starting this week (5) some teams will be on a bye. This week BAL, CLE, DAL, MIA, STL and WAS are all off. In fact, for the next 4 weeks (5-8) 6 teams will be on a bye each week. Then in week 9 and 11 only 4 teams are off. Yes, week 10 is a full schedule. Why do you care? Because your weekly opponent may have some holes in his lineup due to those byes (combined with some inconvenient injuries) and you can exploit that with the waiver wire if needed. If he is short a kicker or defense you probably cannot do much to prevent him getting one, but if there is one great K or D that should go off this week. You could try and outbid him on that player (or D) to block him from getting him. Look at his QB situation especially, 6 of the 32 starting QBs are sitting at home this week. He may not have a starter on his team, if this is the case he needs to go get one from the waiver wire. At the best you can make him bid higher by letting him know you intend to bid big on the one obvious waiver wire QB that is free. All of these tips help you get a small edge on your weekly opponent, and bye weeks make this even easier because weaknesses are blatantly obvious in some cases (Flacco on a bye and Vick banged up).

 

Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650


Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669

Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634
Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428693

Fantasy Soccer: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Football/Fantasy Soccer ($14.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/1936635011