Let me start right off the bat by saying that I am a big believer in using the Las Vegas Odds as a "Tool" to help decide starters; especially if all other means show them even.
For example, your 2 kicker choices are Nick Folk Dallas and Ryan Longwell Minnesota.
Previous analysis shows both kickers to be about even. Both are at home, kicking in a dome so no weather issues, etc. To help decide WDIS (who do I start) look at the odds.
Dallas is a -7 point favorite with over/under of 44.
Min is a +4 underdog with an over/under 50.
So the bookies think DAL will win 24-17 and MIN will lose 27-23. AHA you say go with Folk since he should score more points.
NOT SO FAST!
The odds are not what you think. They are not designed to be exactly what will happen in a game but rather are designed to draw the same amount of bets to both sides so that Vegas can win on the vig. The Vig (or "Juice" as it is sometimes referred to) is the commision on the bet.
If a bet in the U.S is straight up (lets say a coin toss of heads or tails). The sports book will charge 110 for the bet from both parties. A heads bet costs 110 and tails bet also 110. So the bookie will take in 220 and pay out 210 to the winner, keeping 10 as the vig or commission.
But if everyone is betting heads; the sportsbook will want to "encourage" others to bet tails so that in the event that Heads comes up they do not lose too much. So the line moves...
Most point spread bets are for 110 wagered which wins 100. So the 10 lost if you lose the bet is the vig.
Also note sports books often set the point spread at half a point so that there is always a winner and a loser so that the book can keep their commission (if their is a push-the teams tie based on the point spread-then all wagers get their money back).
One technique is to bet the favorite early and bet the underdog late. Why? Because as more bets are placed on the favourite, the odds become shorter since the bookies do not want you to keep betting on them. Conversely when wagering on the underdog, leaving it as late as possible will usually mean the odds on offer will increase and you get the best wager possible.
But what if the betting public really favors one team?
It has been shown that some teams take in more bets from the public in general. Dallas, Green Bay and Pittsburgh all are favored by their fans and generally take in more bets on them. The book makers know this and will set their odds as high as possible in some cases. So GB may be favored by 9 points when really they are only expected to win by 6 points but the book makers want to get more money on their opponent. This is called "Shading" the line.
Often it is more for the playoffs, Super Bowl or big National games.
Ok so I have digressed some. Lets review so far.
1) Most Sportsbooks would love to have the same amount wagered on each side. That way they make money on the vig and do not have to pay out more to one side or the other.
2) If a fan favorite is involved in a big game, the book makers may "shade" the line to their opponent since they know the public will bet "Dallas" no matter what.
3) If one team gets too many bets, the line may move to "encourage" more bets on the other team.
Conclusion: There are times when the line is not what Vegas thinks will happen; instead it is what Vegas needs to make the betting more equitable for Vegas.
So in our example above maybe Ryan Longwell is the one to go with if Dallas really has a shaded line. Just something to think about as we move closer to the big games.
Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($9.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669
Fantasy Football Guidebook: Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95 on sale for $17.95) http://www.amazon.com/1602640203
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