Monday, December 2, 2013

Fantasy Football Tip #231 Use your gut! Projections are not the gospel.

Fantasy Football Tip #231-Use your gut when it comes to projections.

First if you are going to use someone else's projections-use 2-3 different sites and compare them. If two websites say your RB will score 12 points and the third says he will score 6 points. Trust the two and throw out the third. 

But be realistic in these projections. If a site states that your WR will have 6 catches for 65 yards and .4 TDs, it does not mean he will score 14 points. It is an estimate people. He could score zero if he pulls a hammy in the pre game warmups or go off and have a career game when the shutdown corner misses the game. 

DO NOT GET TOO WRAPPED UP in obsessing with the difference between three projections that are close. I mean really is their a lot of effort going into wringing your hands between 10.3 Fantasy Points and 11.1 FP and 12.2 FP. So one of the projections has an extra catch-big deal.

And what are the projections based on? The 4 week previous average in most cases with a bias based on what the defense they are facing has given up to that position the past 4 weeks. 
And by the way, they probably are not updated right before game time when the injuries are listed. So if a key WR will miss the game, the projections probably do not reflect  a decrease for the QB or an increase for the WR2 who is now asked to step it up some. 

How about weather? Maybe but probably not reflected in the ranking/projections. 

Bottom line-use your gut. Do not take these projections as the gospel. Instead use them as a first guide to how your players may perform and then apply some common sense and judgment to modify/adjust them for the current situation. 

These great holiday gift ideas from Sam Hendricks are available at Amazon and BN as paperbacks and ebooks:

Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition)
Fantasy Football Tips (2nd Edition)
Fantasy Football Basics

Fantasy Baseball for Beginners

Fantasy Hockey

Fantasy Soccer

Fantasy Basketball Handbook

Avoid the holiday rush.
Get your perfect gift today.
Order now for Christmas!

Books from Extra Point Press:

Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95)


Fantasy Football Tips (2nd Edition): 230 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($12.95)


Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95/ Ebook $8.75)


Fantasy Football for Winners: The Kick-Ass Guide to Dominating Your League from the World's Foremost Fantasologist ($ 14.95/ $9.95 Nook) by B.J. Rudell


Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95/Ebook $8.75 )


Fantasy Soccer: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Soccer Players ($14.95/ Ebook $9.95)


Fantasy Hockey: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Hockey Players ($14.95/$9.95 Ebook)


Fantasy Basketball Handbook: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Beginners and Experienced Players ($12.95/$9.95 Ebook)


No comments: