Wednesday, March 15, 2017

NCAA March Madness Bracketology 2017

Ok I know this is a fantasy sports blog-primarily football, go it.
And oh by the way the fantasy football posts have been lacking the past two months. Copy shot! A much needed break I assure you.

Here are some tips for anyone filling out your 2017 NCAA Bracket.

1) Pick a winner first and advance them all the way to the winner circle. One of the most common mistakes when filling out a bracket is NOT picking the overall winner. It is tricky because often the last game is not the same pick method or it is hidden a bit by the tie breaker.

Hint pick a #1 seed as they have won about 15% of the time. This year I like Kansas.

2) Turn in your bracket on time. Remember the play-in games on Tuesday and Wednesday are now called the "Round 1" games. Round 2 starts Thursday and the first tipoff is the deadline when most brackets need to be submitted. Noon on Thursday is the usual first tipoff!

3) The Top Seeds are top seeds for a reason.
#1 seeds make the final four 40% of the time. Pick two #1 seeds to make final four.
Number 2 seeds make the final four 23% of the time and...
Number 3 seeds make the final four 8% of the time
Number 4 seeds make it 6% (Number 6 do so 4%)

So pick two to three #1 seeds to advance and then add in a couple of  #2 or #3 seeds. Have them win all their games into the final four.

Hint: If you add up all the seeds in the final four you should not exceed seven as a rule of thumb. So if you have two #1 seeds and a #3 seed do not pick anything but a 1 or 2 seed to finish out the final four.

4) Use the bookies to pick the winners of the close games-i.e the 8/9 seeds in Round 2. Usually these are 50/50 matchups.

5) Look for upsets in the 5/12 matchups and the 7/10 matchups. The underdogs win 36% in 5 v 12 matchups and 40% in 7 vs 10.
So pick one or two as upsets from category.

6)  Do not pick a #1 seed to lose in their first game. They have never done so. 

7) Only pick 6th or higher seeds to win in later rounds. Again the higher seeds usually win.

8) Look at home field advantage and momentum going into the tourney. I also get some extra help from Jeff Sagarin and his rankings!

9) Play in all the free brackets-they are free and you never know.

10) If you pick an 8 seed to upset the #1 seed in the third round then advance them to the Elite 8. And in general if you pick a team to upset continue to have them win until they face a team higher than the team they faced. So if you think the #13 will beat #4 in round 2 keep them winning the next game vs #5 seed.

My 2017 Picks
Final Four: 
Kansas, UNC, WVA, Duke
(that is the number 8 if counting seeds 1,1,4,2=8

In Championship:
Kansas vs Duke (ACC fan I am
Upset picks: Syracuse,
Long shot to win it all: WVA, UCLA, Louisville, FSU?

Sleeper to go far: Nevada (12th seed)

Check out the latest books from Extra Point Press
Including Financial Planning The Fighter Pilot Way and…a military thriller from Sam Hendricks Just One More...

Financial Planning The Fighter Pilot Way: 365 Personal Finance Tips Everyone Should Know 

Fantasy Football Tips (2nd Edition): 230 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($12.95)

Books from Extra Point Press:

Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95)

Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon

Introducing a military thriller from Award Winning author Sam Hendricks- Just One More...

On a fateful night in Afghanistan, a flawed NATO airstrike sets into motion a chain of events that reaches across the world, from Vancouver to Copenhagen to London. How far will one person go for revenge?
In the sleepy English countryside, an F15E Strike Eagle team gears up for a live weapons mission. Can lead pilot "Rider" keep his head in the game and overcome the demons of his past? Hundreds of lives will depend on the answer as a deadly Al Qaeda terrorist cell, and maverick CIA and MI6 agents descend on US soil in a jaw-dropping climax where anything goes.

Just One More... $9.95 (9.95)


No comments: