Ask the Expert: Which First Round Pick Would You Avoid?

Of all the consensus first-round picks -- think, a dozen or so players likely to be selected in the first round of most drafts -- which one player do you expect to avoid drafting, and why?

In a 12-team PPR league that starts 1/2/2/1/1/1+a flex player I see 10 RBs and 2 WRs drafted (Perhaps TE Jimmy Graham with a late pick too). That means Calvin Johnson and either A.J Green or Dez Bryant and the top 10 RBs-usually AP, Martin, AF, JC, Rice, McCoy, Spiller, Richardson, Forte and Lynch. To be perfectly honest I see something in all of these players. Nothing stands out like in years past where I am staying away from someone. The first three RBs are studs (Martin may have a sophomore slump but nothing to avoid drafting him). Jamaal Charles will be exciting to watch in Andy Reid’s KC offense. Rice may lose some touches to Bernard Pierce but gain some with Pitta out. McCoy gets Chip Kelly’s new offense. Spiller has great yards after the catch and 30 carries a game is not out of the question. Trent Richardson played hurt last year and was a top 10 RB. This year he is healthy and gets Norv Turner as his OC. Lynch did well last year without Percy Harvin so why not the same this year. What’s not to love? If Alfred Morris slipped into the first round (say no WRs or TEs went other than CJ) then I might not pick him but instead go with a top 3 WR simply because I do not trust Shanahan completely.

 
ASK THE EXPERTS appears weekly at http://www.fantasyindex.com/ with answers to a new question posted Thursday morning.


Sam Hendricks is the author of Fantasy Football Guidebook, Fantasy Football Tips and Fantasy Football Basics , all available at his website, http://www.ffguidebook.com/, at all major bookstores, and at http://www.amazon.com/. He is a 20+ year fantasy football veteran who regularly participates in the National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC), Fantasy Football World Championship (FFWC) and finished 7th and 16th overall (out of 228 top players) in the 2008 and 2009 Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC).

Books from Extra Point Press:

Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650

Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669

Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634

Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428693

Fantasy Soccer: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Soccer Players ($14.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/1936635070

Fantasy Hockey: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Hockey Players ($14.95) www.amazon.com/dp/1936635100

Fantasy Basketball Handbook: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Beginners and Experienced Players ($12.95) www.amazon.com/dp/1936635097