FantasyFootballGuidebook.com 2019 NFL Mock Draft 1.0

1 AZ Kyler Murray QB
2 SF Nick Bosa Edge
3 WAS (in trade with NYJ) Dwane Hawkins QB
4 OAK Josh Allen Edge
5 TB Jowaan Taylor OL
6 NYG Quineeen Williams DL
7 JAX T.J. Hockinson TE
8 DET Montez Sweat Edge
9 BUF Rashan Gary Edge
10 DEN Drew Lock QB


Two days ago I revealed my first 10 picks and how 3 QBs would go. Lets look at 11-20


11 CIN Devin White LB
12 GB Noah Fant TE
13 MIA Cleiln Farrell Edge
14 ATL Devin Bush LB
15 NYJ (traded down from 3 with WAS) Brian Burns Edge
16 CAR Jonah Williams OT
17 NYG (from CLE) Christian Wilkins DT
18 MIN Andre Dillard OT
19 TEN Ed Oliver DT
20 PIT Marquise Brown WR


So far QBs and TEs and WR M Brown at 20 to PIT


21 SEA Jeffrey Simmons DT
22 BAL D.K. Metcalf WR falls into their lap
23 HOU Cody Ford OT
24 OAK Josh Jacobs RB
25 PHI Byron Murphy CB
26 IND A. J. Brown WR (A WR here no doubt)
27 OAK Deandre Baker CB
28 SD Taylor Rapp S
29 KC Garrett Bradbury C
30 GB Dalton Risner OT
31 LAR Johnathan Abrams S
32 NE Irv Smith TE (steal of draft)

Fantasy Football Guidebook's 2019 NFL Draft First 20 picks

1 AZ Kyler Murray QB
2 SF Nick Bosa Edge
3 WAS (in trade with NYJ) Dwane Hawkins QB
4 OAK Josh Allen Edge
5 TB Jowaan Taylor OL
6 NYG Quineeen Williams DL
7 JAX T.J. Hockinson TE
8 DET Montez Sweat Edge
9 BUF Rashan Gary Edge
10 DEN Drew Lock QB


Two days ago I revealed my first 10 picks and how 3 QBs would go. Lets look at 11-20


11 CIN Devin White LB
12 GB Noah Fant TE
13 MIA Cleiln Farrell Edge
14 ATL Devin Bush LB
15 NYJ (traded down from 3 with WAS) Brian Burns Edge
16 CAR Jonah Williams OT
17 NYG (from CLE) Christian Wilkins DT
18 MIN Andre Dillard OT
19 TEN Ed Oliver DT
20 PIT Marquise Brown WR


So far QBs and TEs and WR M Brown at 20 to PIT

Fantasy Football Guidebook NFL Draft Mock 1.0 Top 10 Picks

1 AZ Kyler Murray QB
2 SF Nick Bosa Edge
3 WAS (in trade with NYJ) Dwane Hawkins QB
4 OAK Josh Allen Edge
5 TB Jowaan Taylor OL
6 NYG Quineeen Williams DL
7 JAX T.J. Hockinson TE
8 DET Montez Sweat Edge
9 BUF Rashan Gary Edge
10 DEN Drew Lock QB


There you go 3 QBs in first 10 picks

Sam Hendricks Wins Fantasy Index Magazine Open 2018 and is only Two-Time Champion!

I won the Fantasy Index magazine Experts Poll 2018 by besting 19 of the best Fantasy minds and now it has been announced that I won the Fantasy Index Magazine Open contest AGAIN!


Yes you read that right I won the Open when it first started a few years back and I am now the only Two-Time Fantasy Index Open Champion!


Combine the Open victory with the Experts poll win and it was quite a 2018 for Fantasy Football Guidebook (aka Sam Hendricks).

FantasyFootballGuidebook.com Wins Fantasy Index Expert poll 2018

Sam Hendricks wins prognosticating crown

Sam Hendricks is the winner of the Fantasy Index Experts Poll, outperforming 19 other analysts in a contest involving 2,400 player selections (with each expert submitting a top 20 at six different positions).
Hendricks, author of the Fantasy Football Guidebook (published by Extra Point Press), didn’t win any category but was the only analyst to rank in the top 6 in all of the coveted positions – quarterbacks (2nd), running backs (4th), wide receivers (5th) and tight ends (6th).
In 10 previous attempts, Hendricks had never won the Experts Poll, but he’s been a strong finisher recently. He’s now finished in the top 5 in three of the past four years. He’s finished 10th in his last two other attempts. Hendricks is also a previous winner in the Fantasy Index Open competition (which is structured just like the Experts Poll, but is open to everyone).
Bob Henry of Football Guys finished 2nd, buoyed by 2nd-place finishes at both running back and wide receiver. Henry also takes home the consolation prize of being the top finisher using the alternative VBD scoring system (in that format, we disregard players who badly underperform or miss most of the season with injuries, focusing only on the players who finish the year with starter-level numbers – top 24 RB and WR, and top 12 at the other positions).
Lenny Pappano of Draft Sharks took 3rd.
The top 11 finishers win spots in the Mock Draft competition, and those participants are tagged with black dots in the chart below. As the No. 1 overall finisher, Hendricks will have the luxury of selecting the draft position of his choice. Henry will get first choice of what’s left (and so on down the line).

EXPERTS POLL, OVERALL (standard scoring)
Analyst	QB	RB	TE	WR	Def	PK	Points
• Sam Hendricks	2	4	6	5	17	10	242,130
• Bob Henry	15	2	4	2	14	15	241,815
• Lenny Pappano	6	8	2	3	5	19	241,549
• Alan Satterlee	7	15	1	1	15	12	241,075
• Justin Eleff	1	6	14	17	2	14	240,280
• Michael Nease	18	1	9	4	16	18	239,895
• Patrick Chance	10	3	11	10	6	9	239,219
• Michael Nazarek	13	5	3	12	11	2	239,217
• Paul Charchian	4	9	15	8	1	4	238,220
• Scott Pianowski	16	7	8	6	10	1	238,009
• Jesse Pantuosco	9	12	10	14	8	3	237,682
Cory Bonini	5	10	20	7	9	8	237,320
Jody Smith	12	11	19	15	13	7	235,070
Harold Simons	11	14	17	11	4	5	234,759
David Dorey	19	13	7	16	12	16	234,485
Jeff Ratcliffe	3	19	18	9	7	13	234,388
Chris Liss	17	16	5	18	3	11	234,157
Tony Holm	14	17	13	19	18	17	234,013
Mike Clay	8	20	16	13	20	6	233,052
Aaron Bland	20	18	12	20	19	20	229,768

EXPERTS POLL, OVERALL (VBD scoring)
Analyst	QB	RB	TE	WR	Def	PK	Points
Bob Henry	6	3	1	1	15	16	53,021
Sam Hendricks	4	2	9	8	17	4	52,031
Alan Satterlee	7	12	2	3	18	13	51,880
Lenny Pappano	10	6	3	4	11	11	51,839
Patrick Chance	8	1	8	11	7	18	51,695
Jesse Pantuosco	5	7	10	14	12	8	50,883
Justin Eleff	1	9	15	19	10	17	50,372
Scott Pianowski	14	5	11	7	3	6	50,296
Paul Charchian	11	13	16	6	2	2	49,750
Michael Nazarek	16	4	5	16	13	3	49,616
David Dorey	13	10	6	17	1	9	49,553
Michael Nease	20	8	4	2	9	12	49,505
Harold Simons	12	11	19	9	8	7	49,263
Cory Bonini	9	15	20	5	4	1	49,112
Mike Clay	3	17	18	12	20	20	48,479
Jeff Ratcliffe	2	20	17	10	14	19	48,176
Jody Smith	18	14	13	15	16	14	47,964
Chris Liss	19	16	12	13	5	10	47,282
Aaron Bland	15	19	7	20	19	5	47,027
Tony Holm	17	18	14	18	6	15	46,218

Fantasy Football Guidebook finishes 2nd out of 20 Experts in Fantasy Index Magazine QB Rankings for 2018

At the quarterback position, Patrick Mahomes and Andrew Luck were the key guys in 2018. They both tended to be drafted outside the top 10, and they’re the guys who most dramatically outperformed their draft position, combining for 89 touchdown passes.
So in our Experts Poll, those who did the best job of pushing those guys up the draft board fairly did the best. Those who tried to play it safe by leaving Luck’s injured shoulder out of their top 20 instead sabotaged their own draft board.
Justin Eleff of the Fantasy Index Podcast had the lowest combined rankings on those players – 8th for Luck and 12th for Mahomes – and was able to ride it to a landside victory, outscoring everyone else by almost 2,000 points.
Bob Henry had the best Mahomes ranking (8th) but undermined that selection by leaving Luck off his board. He finished a modest 15th.
Mike Clay had the 2nd-lowest rankings on the two key quarterbacks (7th for Luck, 14th for Mahomes) but hurt his top 20 by ranking Jared Goff way lower (20th) than everyone else. That backfired, and he finished only 8th.
Sam Hendricks (Extra Point Press) finished 2nd in this category, and did so without standout selections on Luck (20th) or Mahomes (14th). Hendricks instead built his top 20 around ranking Philip Rivers higher than anyone else (7th), and being higher than most on a number of other quarterbacks who played well, including Drew Brees (5th), Matt Ryan (13th) and Ben Roethlisberger (6th).
Jeff Ratcliffe of Pro Football Focus finished 3rd at the quarterback position. He had the 3rd-best combined ranking of the two key quarterbacks, slotting Luck 11th and Mahomes 14th.

EXPERTS POLL, QUARTERBACKS (standard scoring)
Analyst	Points
Justin Eleff	107,003
Sam Hendricks	105,216
Jeff Ratcliffe	105,213
Paul Charchian	104,803
Cory Bonini	104,712
Lenny Pappano	104,694
Alan Satterlee	104,559
Mike Clay	104,373
Jesse Pantuosco	104,213
Patrick Chance	103,578
Harold Simons	103,487
Jody Smith	103,422
Michael Nazarek	103,112
Tony Holm	103,003
Bob Henry	102,918
Scott Pianowski	102,383
Chris Liss	101,372
Michael Nease	101,339
David Dorey	100,822
Aaron Bland	100,108

Injuries typically play a big role at this position. When a quarterback ranked in the top 10 in the preseason misses most of the season, he tends to destroy a lot of entries. But there were fewer injuries at this position this year. Jimmy Garoppolo was really the only coveted quarterback who missed most of the season. That was a gut punch to those who had him slotted for a breakout-type year, including Aaron Bland (7th), David Dorey (8th) and Chris Liss (8th).
To smooth the rankings to account for injuries, we also offer more of a Value Based Drafting system, looking only at quarterbacks who ended up with starting numbers – top 12 – and not worrying about the rest. Such a scoring system is intended to reward those who can find good production, while not giving much weight to the lesser picks and busts.
In that scoring system, Eleff was still the decisive winner, followed by Ratcliffe and Clay.

EXPERTS POLL, QUARTERBACKS (VBD scoring)
Analyst	Points
Justin Eleff	7,459
Jeff Ratcliffe	6,827
Mike Clay	6,800
Sam Hendricks	6,789
Jesse Pantuosco	6,777
Bob Henry	6,675
Alan Satterlee	6,653
Patrick Chance	6,528
Cory Bonini	6,508
Lenny Pappano	6,502
Paul Charchian	6,411
Harold Simons	6,297
David Dorey	5,746
Scott Pianowski	5,624
Aaron Bland	5,435
Michael Nazarek	5,375
Tony Holm	5,210
Jody Smith	5,141
Chris Liss	4,716
Michael Nease	4,027

FantasyFootballGuidebook.com finishes 4th out fo 20 Experts in Fantasy Index Magazine RB Rankings for 2018

Michael Nease was super aggressive with his running back picks in the Experts Poll last year; with seven different running backs, he ranked them higher or lower than any of the 19 other analysts. And Nease hit on enough of those picks to outperform the rest of the field at this position.
It wasn’t pretty at times. Nease ranked Todd Gurley (6th) and Saquon Barkley (12th) a lot lower than anyone else – picks that rightfully cost him a ton of points. They finished as the top-2 scoring running backs (using standard scoring).
But Nease hit on enough other picks to salvage the best score. He ranked Alvin Kamara as his No. 1 back, for example, which was about 4 spots higher than the vast majority of experts. The Kamara pick helped to essentially cancel one of his misses on Gurley and Barkley. He was also one of only two experts to rank LeVeon Bell just 5th, which paid off when Bell didn’t even play (most ranked Bell either 2nd or 3rd). Similarly, Nease ranked Devonta Freeman only 17th, about 5 spots lower than most; that also paid off big-time when Freeman missed most of the season.
Nease was also among the highest on Christian McCaffrey (13th), which ended up being a huge boon.
Total them up and Nease, who writes for Big Guy Fantasy Sports, ended up in the top spot using our complex scoring system. In this contest, you don’t draft players. Instead, everyone in your top 20 counts; the higher you rank them, the more they count towards your score.
Bob Henry of Football Guys finished 2nd in this category. Patrick Chance took 3rd. Unlike 18 of the other contestants, Chance isn’t an industry writer. Instead, he earned a berth in the competition by finishing in the top 2 in the Fantasy Index Open last year. (Speaking of the open, those scores will be released early in the week.)

EXPERTS POLL, RUNNING BACKS (standard scoring)
Analyst	Points
Michael Nease	55,992
Bob Henry	55,512
Patrick Chance	54,749
Sam Hendricks	54,396
Michael Nazarek	54,272
Justin Eleff	53,947
Scott Pianowski	53,551
Lenny Pappano	53,547
Paul Charchian	53,309
Cory Bonini	53,208
Jody Smith	52,716
Jesse Pantuosco	52,648
David Dorey	52,572
Harold Simons	51,868
Alan Satterlee	51,858
Chris Liss	51,573
Tony Holm	51,437
Aaron Bland	49,768
Jeff Ratcliffe	49,495
Mike Clay	49,383

With this competition, attrition tends to play a huge role. Rank a player like LeVeon Bell, Derrius Guice or Devonta Freeman too high, and you’re screwed. Those kind of players, in fact, end up being more important than how you happened to order guys like Gurley, Barkley, McCaffrey and Ezekiel Elliott.
With that in mind, we also score the poll using more of a Value-Based Drafting system. In such a format, you pull out the starters at each position – 12 QB, K, TE and Def, 24 RB and 24 WRs – and look at who was the best at identifying them. The rest of the players, get moved to the side (you just assume that everyone else produced the same as the best backup at each position).
Using the VBD scoring system, Patrick Chance, Sam Hendricks (Extra Point Press) and Henry were the top finishers, with Nease falling back towards the middle of the pack.
It’s a reminder that these picks can be scored in various plausible ways.

EXPERTS POLL, RUNNING BACKS (VBD scoring)
Analyst	Points
Patrick Chance	21,695
Sam Hendricks	21,479
Bob Henry	21,330
Michael Nazarek	20,993
Scott Pianowski	20,954
Lenny Pappano	20,931
Jesse Pantuosco	20,915
Michael Nease	20,915
Justin Eleff	20,847
David Dorey	20,659
Harold Simons	20,489
Alan Satterlee	20,455
Paul Charchian	20,375
Jody Smith	20,343
Cory Bonini	20,189
Chris Liss	19,346
Mike Clay	19,256
Tony Holm	18,864
Aaron Bland	18,710
Jeff Ratcliffe	18,655

With one position left to grade, Bob Henry is the overall leader, with Nease, Michael Nazarek, Scott Pianowski and Lenny Pappano close behind. Henry has finished 4th, 2nd and 2nd in the last three positions to overcome a slow start.
The last position, however, is the one with the most points at stake: quarterbacks. Those will be tabulated on Sunday.

EXPERTS POLL, OVERALL (standard scoring)
Analyst	Def	PK	TE	WR	RB	Points
Bob Henry	14	15	4	2	2	204,738
Michael Nease	16	18	9	4	1	203,874
Michael Nazarek	11	2	3	12	5	203,444
Scott Pianowski	10	1	8	6	7	203,095
Lenny Pappano	5	19	2	3	8	203,048
Sam Hendricks	17	10	6	5	4	202,869
Patrick Chance	6	9	11	10	3	202,676
Alan Satterlee	15	12	1	1	15	202,463
Paul Charchian	1	4	15	8	9	201,396
Jesse Pantuosco	8	3	10	14	12	200,906
Justin Eleff	2	14	14	17	6	200,054
David Dorey	12	16	7	16	13	199,673
Chris Liss	3	11	5	18	16	199,633
Cory Bonini	9	8	20	7	10	199,342
Harold Simons	4	5	17	11	14	198,769
Jody Smith	13	7	19	15	11	198,228
Tony Holm	18	17	13	19	17	196,332
Jeff Ratcliffe	7	13	18	9	19	195,585
Mike Clay	20	6	16	13	20	194,188
Aaron Bland	19	20	12	20	18	194,073

Using the VBD scoring system, Henry and Nease are also in the top 2 spots with only one position left to score.

EXPERTS POLL, OVERALL (VBD scoring)
Analyst	Def	PK	TE	WR	RB	Points
Bob Henry	15	16	1	1	3	50,022
Michael Nease	9	12	4	2	8	49,448
Lenny Pappano	11	11	3	4	6	49,305
Patrick Chance	7	18	8	11	1	49,072
Scott Pianowski	3	6	11	7	5	49,035
Sam Hendricks	17	4	9	8	2	48,942
Alan Satterlee	18	13	2	3	12	48,623
Michael Nazarek	13	3	5	16	4	48,435
David Dorey	1	9	6	17	10	48,223
Jesse Pantuosco	12	8	10	14	7	48,162
Paul Charchian	2	2	16	6	13	47,918
Harold Simons	8	7	19	9	11	47,158
Cory Bonini	4	1	20	5	15	47,027
Chris Liss	5	10	12	13	16	46,770
Justin Eleff	10	17	15	19	9	46,770
Jody Smith	16	14	13	15	14	46,480
Jeff Ratcliffe	14	19	17	10	20	45,134
Aaron Bland	19	5	7	20	19	44,979
Tony Holm	6	15	14	18	18	44,935
Mike Clay	20	20	18	12	17	44,611

FantasyFootballGuidebook.com finshes 5th out fo 20 Experts in Fantasy Index Magazine WR Rankings for 2018

Now at 6th overall after WR, TE, K and Defenses all added together.


With the Fantasy Index Experts Poll, the wide receiver position played out almost the same as the tight ends yesterday. Alan Satterlee of the Charlotte Observer was the winner, while Bob Henry of Football Guys came out on the top in the alternative scoring method.
With tight ends, Satterlee had a handful of picks that stood out. That wasn’t so much the case here, where it appears he picked up some value here and there. He ranked Mike Evans 5th, which helped him along (Evans was about 4 spots lower on most boards). He also helped himself by being among the highest on T.Y. Hilton (10th) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (13th).
Whatever the reasons, after all 20 picks of all 20 experts were scored, Satterlee finished in the No. 1 spot, with 55,481 points. Three others also made it over the 55,000-point mark (less than 1 percent behind): Henry, Lenny Pappano (Draft Sharks) and Michael Nease (Big Guy Fantasy Sports).

EXPERTS POLL, WR (standard scoring)
Analyst	Points
Alan Satterlee	55,481
Bob Henry	55,413
Lenny Pappano	55,142
Michael Nease	55,034
Sam Hendricks	54,742
Scott Pianowski	54,526
Cory Bonini	54,398
Paul Charchian	54,205
Jeff Ratcliffe	54,174
Patrick Chance	54,030
Harold Simons	53,813
Michael Nazarek	53,737
Mike Clay	53,655
Jesse Pantuosco	53,653
Jody Smith	53,524
David Dorey	53,458
Justin Eleff	53,319
Chris Liss	53,300
Tony Holm	53,276
Aaron Bland	53,241

If we use the scoring system that establishes a floor beneath picks (reducing the impact of injuries and benchings) than Henry takes top honors, with the top 4 spots going to the same four analysts.
For this scoring system, I set the floor at 25 wide receivers. In a 12-team league with everyone starting two wide receivers, that would be 24 starting wide receivers. I assumed that those who missed on picks would be able to get production on par with the best backup receivers, using trades and free-agent pickups – guys tend to emerge throughout the season. Emmanuel Sanders ranked 25th in scoring at this position, with 127.5 points, so that was deemed to be the floor – so credit was only given to production beyond that point.

EXPERTS POLL, WR (VBD scoring)
Analyst	Points
Bob Henry	17,362
Michael Nease	17,261
Alan Satterlee	17,253
Lenny Pappano	17,016
Cory Bonini	16,774
Paul Charchian	16,652
Scott Pianowski	16,598
Sam Hendricks	16,580
Harold Simons	16,491
Jeff Ratcliffe	16,410
Patrick Chance	16,282
Mike Clay	16,249
Chris Liss	16,160
Jesse Pantuosco	16,057
Jody Smith	15,948
Michael Nazarek	15,948
David Dorey	15,916
Tony Holm	15,781
Justin Eleff	15,728
Aaron Bland	15,686

With two positions left to grade, Satterlee is the overall leader. Scott Pianowski and Pappano are about 1,000 points back, but somebody from further back could still make a run – the QB and RB positions tend to be the most important.

EXPERTS POLL, OVERALL (standard scoring)
Analyst	Def	PK	TE	WR	Points
Alan Satterlee	15	12	1	1	150,605
Scott Pianowski	10	1	8	6	149,543
Lenny Pappano	5	19	2	3	149,501
Bob Henry	14	15	4	2	149,226
Michael Nazarek	11	2	3	12	149,172
Sam Hendricks	17	10	6	5	148,474
Jesse Pantuosco	8	3	10	14	148,258
Paul Charchian	1	4	15	8	148,087
Chris Liss	3	11	5	18	148,060
Patrick Chance	6	9	11	10	147,927
Michael Nease	16	18	9	4	147,881
David Dorey	12	16	7	16	147,101
Harold Simons	4	5	17	11	146,902
Cory Bonini	9	8	20	7	146,134
Justin Eleff	2	14	14	17	146,107
Jeff Ratcliffe	7	13	18	9	146,090
Jody Smith	13	7	19	15	145,512
Tony Holm	18	17	13	19	144,895
Mike Clay	20	6	16	13	144,805
Aaron Bland	19	20	12	20	144,306

Grading picks of experts, of course, is a subjective exercise. You can score them a lot of different ways, with different guys potentially “winning”. If we instead use the VBD scoring method, Henry is the current leader, with Nease and Pappano close behind.

EXPERTS POLL, OVERALL (VBD scoring)
Analyst	Def	PK	TE	WR	Points
Bob Henry	15	16	1	1	28,692
Michael Nease	9	12	4	2	28,534
Lenny Pappano	11	11	3	4	28,374
Alan Satterlee	18	13	2	3	28,168
Scott Pianowski	3	6	11	7	28,081
David Dorey	1	9	6	17	27,563
Paul Charchian	2	2	16	6	27,543
Sam Hendricks	17	4	9	8	27,464
Michael Nazarek	13	3	5	16	27,442
Chris Liss	5	10	12	13	27,424
Patrick Chance	7	18	8	11	27,377
Jesse Pantuosco	12	8	10	14	27,247
Cory Bonini	4	1	20	5	26,838
Harold Simons	8	7	19	9	26,669
Jeff Ratcliffe	14	19	17	10	26,479
Aaron Bland	19	5	7	20	26,270
Jody Smith	16	14	13	15	26,137
Tony Holm	6	15	14	18	26,071
Justin Eleff	10	17	15	19	25,923
Mike Clay	20	20	18	12	25,355

FantasyFootballGuidebook finishes 6th out fo 20 Experts in Fantasy Index TE Rankings for 2018

Spoiler alert! I am making my move!!!

10th Overall after this 6th place finish...

To win at fantasy football, you have to take some stands on some guys – players where you feel they’ll be a lot better (or worse) than what is generally expected. Alan Satterlee of The Charlotte Observer took a number of bold gambles at the tight end position in the Fantasy Index Experts Poll and was right on almost all of them, winning this position decisively.

 

Most notably, Satterlee has always been a fan of the talent of David Njoku. He ranked the Cleveland tight end way higher than everyone else, and that paid off nicely when Njoku had a big season. (Satterlee ranked him 7th; none of the other 19 experts ranked him higher than 12th).

 

Similarly, everyone had a feeling Trey Burton might be good in Chicago, but Satterlee pushed more chips into the middle of the table, ranking him 6th (again, the highest of anyone).

 

At the same time, Satterlee placed the lowest grades of anyone on Greg Olsen (8th) and Delanie Walker (15th) and thus benefitted when their seasons were sullied by injuries.

 

Using our ridiculously complex scoring system, Satterlee beat everyone else by over 1,000 points. Lenny Pappano of Draft Sharks took 2nd, while Michael Nazarek of Fantasy Football Mastermind placed 3rd.

 

As a reminder of how we score this thing, we take the production of the player (using standard scoring) and multiply it against where he was ranked. The higher you rank a player, the more he counts towards your score. Njoku, for example, scored 87.9 points. Had you ranked him 1st, you would receive 2,197.5 points (25 x 87.9). Had you ranked him 2nd, you would receive 2,109.6 points (24 x 87.9). A 3rd-place ranking would score 2,021.7 (23 x 87.9). And so on. Lots of numbers in an attempt to grade all of the picks made by all of the experts.

 

Attrition is key in this format, of course. Those who predicted big things out of Walker, Olsen, Tyler Eifert and Jack Doyle were dead from the start. You take zeros week after week, and you’ve got no chance – those picks become statistically way more important than whether you ranked Travis Kelce or Zach Ertz higher.

 

With that in mind we also score this contest using more of a VBD method. In that scoring, you assume that if a player is injured or simply unproductive, he’ll be replaced with a free agent pickup along the way – the team owner would find a replacement. In the alternative scoring system, we’re looking only at starter-caliber players (the top 12 tight ends), and we’re looking only at how much production they provided beyond the rest of the field. In that scoring system, Evan Engram (81.3) was the 13th tight end, and we assumed he was the worst you could do. In such a format, Njoku wasn’t worth 87.9, he was worth 6.6 (he was 6.6 points better than Engram).

 

In such a scoring format, Satterlee still did well – 2nd place – but Bob Henry of Football Guys moved into the top spot.

 

@table header:2

EXPERTS POLL / TIGHT ENDS (standard scoring)

Analyst           Points

Alan Satterlee            29,177

Lenny Pappano         28,165

Michael Nazarek        28,096

Bob Henry      27,972

Chris Liss        27,912

Sam Hendricks          27,776

David Dorey   27,633

Scott Pianowski         27,550

Michael Nease           27,530

Jesse Pantuosco         27,168

Patrick Chance          26,861

Aaron Bland   26,651

Tony Holm     26,297

Justin Eleff     26,011

Paul Charchian          25,903

Mike Clay       25,642

Harold Simons           25,591

Jeff Ratcliffe   25,506

Jody Smith     25,408

Cory Bonini    25,003

@endtable

 

 

In VBD scoring, the scores are way lower because we’re tossing out 81.3 points of each player’s score – only points above that threshold count.

 

@table header:2

EXPERTS POLL / TIGHT ENDS (VBD scoring)

Analyst           Points

Bob Henry      7,655

Alan Satterlee            7,520

Lenny Pappano         7,391

Michael Nease           7,302

Michael Nazarek        7,301

David Dorey   7,233

Aaron Bland   7,197

Patrick Chance          7,190

Sam Hendricks          7,182

Jesse Pantuosco         7,134

Scott Pianowski         7,119

Chris Liss        7,060

Jody Smith     6,532

Tony Holm     6,364

Justin Eleff     6,339

Paul Charchian          6,313

Jeff Ratcliffe   6,285

Mike Clay       6,174

Harold Simons           5,986

Cory Bonini    5,641

@endtable

 

 

At the halfway point of the competition, Nazarek is the overall leader, followed by Satterlee and Scott Pianowski of Yahoo.

 

@table header:2

EXPERTS POLL / OVERALL (standard scoring)    

Analyst           Def      TE       PK       Points

Michael Nazarek        11       3          2          95,435

Alan Satterlee            15       1          12       95,124

Scott Pianowski         10       8          1          95,017

Chris Liss        3          5          11       94,760

Jesse Pantuosco         8          10       3          94,604

Lenny Pappano         5          2          19       94,359

Patrick Chance          6          11       9          93,897

Paul Charchian          1          15       4          93,882

Bob Henry      14       4          15       93,813

Sam Hendricks          17       6          10       93,732

David Dorey   12       7          16       93,643

Harold Simons           4          17       5          93,088

Michael Nease           16       9          18       92,847

Justin Eleff     2          14       14       92,789

Jody Smith     13       19       7          91,988

Jeff Ratcliffe   7          18       13       91,916

Cory Bonini    9          20       8          91,737

Tony Holm     18       13       17       91,618

Mike Clay       20       16       6          91,150

Aaron Bland   19       12       20       91,065

@endtable

 

 

If you’re more a fan of the scoring system with a floor, then David Dorey of The Huddle is the leader at the halfway point, with Nazarek and Pianowski close behind.

 

@table header:2

EXPERTS POLL / OVERALL (VBD scoring)            

Analyst           Def      TE       PK       Points

David Dorey   1          6          9          11,648

Michael Nazarek        13       5          3          11,494

Scott Pianowski         3          11       6          11,483

Lenny Pappano         11       3          11       11,358

Bob Henry      15       1          16       11,331

Michael Nease           9          4          12       11,272

Chris Liss        5          12       10       11,264

Jesse Pantuosco         12       10       8          11,190

Patrick Chance          7          8          18       11,095

Alan Satterlee            18       2          13       10,915

Paul Charchian          2          16       2          10,891

Sam Hendricks          17       9          4          10,883

Aaron Bland   19       7          5          10,584

Tony Holm     6          14       15       10,291

Justin Eleff     10       15       17       10,195

Jody Smith     16       13       14       10,189

Harold Simons           8          19       7          10,178

Jeff Ratcliffe   14       17       19       10,070

Cory Bonini    4          20       1          10,064

Mike Clay       20       18       20       9,106

FantasyFootballGuidebook finishes 10th out of 20 in Fantasy Index Kickers Rankings for 2018

With the Experts Poll, sometimes it’s not who you pick but who you don’t. That was the case at the Kicker Position. Scott Pianowski of Yahoo wins this one, and Chris Boswell was his MVP.

 

Boswell, of course, had a lousy season for the Steelers, but if we wind the clock back to late May, Pianowski was the guy who saying louder than anyone else, “Don’t draft Chris Boswell”. Boswell was only 13th on this board. He appeared 3rd to 9th on the vast majority of other draft boards, creating a lot of value for Pianowski at this position.

 

Injuries and roster moves played a larger role than usual at this position. Of the top 12 kickers on the board, five played fewer than 16 games: Zuerlein, Bryant, Boswell, Gano and Bailey. In this attrition-based contest, there’s nothing worse than getting stuck with a zero week after week.

 

Michael Nazarek (Fantasy Football Mastermind) and Jesse Pantuosco (RotoWorld) took 2nd and 3rd place at this position.

 

Paul Charchian of LeagueSafe, meanwhile, captured 4th, so remains the overall leader. (Charchian won the other position we’ve scored – Defenses & Special teams). After two rounds, only two experts have ranked in the top 5 at both of them – Charchian and Harold Simons (who won his way into this competition by winning the Fantasy Index Open in 2017).

 

Still to come are the more telling positions: QB, RB, WR, TE.

 

@table header:2

EXPERTS POLL (kickers)
Contestant	Points
Scott Pianowski	34,865
Michael Nazarek	34,751
Jesse Pantuosco	34,723
Paul Charchian	34,643
Harold Simons	34,474
Mike Clay	34,247
Jody Smith	34,093
Cory Bonini	34,059
Patrick Chance	34,053
Sam Hendricks	33,881
Chris Liss	33,812
Alan Satterlee	33,800
Jeff Ratcliffe	33,658
Justin Eleff	33,625
Bob Henry	33,587
David Dorey	33,519
Tony Holm	33,248
Michael Nease	33,207
Lenny Pappano	33,206
Aaron Bland	32,952

FantasyFootballGuidebook finishe 17th of 20th in Fantasy Index Defense Rankings for 2018

Paul Charchian of LeagueSafe is the winner of the Defense category of the Fantasy Index Experts Poll, and it was the Chicago Bears who lifted him into the top spot.

 

The Bears had the No. 1 defense (scoring 160 points in standard scoring), and Charchian was one of only three of the 20 panelists who ranked them in his top 10. That gave Charchian a big edge over most of the field.

 

Only one expert ranked the Bears even higher (Michael Nease ranked them 7th) but Nease undermined that pick by being one of only three who didn’t include Kansas City in his top 20. With 52 sacks and 27 takeaways, Kansas City finished 2nd in scoring at this position, so Nease lost a ton of ground at that spot to the 17 who placed them in the top 20.

 

This contest is different from a regular fantasy league, with each player being placed on a roster. Here, each expert submits a top 20 at each of the six positions, and all 120 picks are graded – the higher you rank a player, the more he counts towards your score.

 

The Bears scored 160 points in this contest. Had you ranked them first, you would have received 4,000 points (25 x 160). Rank them 2nd would get you 3,840 (24 x 160). Rank them 3rd would generate 3,680 (23 x 160). And so on.

 

Most experts ranked Chicago in the teens (average finish was 14th), and Charchian generated about an extra 900 points by instead ranking them 8th.

 

The Bears were helped along by a late trade for Khalil Mack; that deal went down after everyone’s top 20s were submitted. But it can be argued that there’s less luck involved in this category than any of the other positions. This is the only category were each contestant is guaranteed of at least getting 16 games out of each of their 20 picks. (Injuries and lineup changes tend to be critical at the other positions.)

 

Regardless, Charchian is the early leader in this contest, and we’ll crown an overall champion after grading the other five positions in the coming days.

 

Justin Eleff of the Fantasy Index Podcast finished 2nd in this category, while Chris Liss of Rotowire took 3rd.

 

The Jaguars were the huge disappointment at this position, finishing 18th in scoring. That was shocking, since 19 of the analysts ranked them No. 1 overall. But they all suffered equally, at least. Eleff picked up only slight value by instead ranking them 2nd.

 

@table header:2

EXPERTS POLL -- DEFENSES
Expert	Points
Paul Charchian	33,336
Justin Eleff	33,152
Chris Liss	33,036
Harold Simons	33,023
Lenny Pappano	32,988
Patrick Chance	32,983
Jeff Ratcliffe	32,752
Jesse Pantuosco	32,714
Cory Bonini	32,675
Scott Pianowski	32,603
Michael Nazarek	32,588
David Dorey	32,491
Jody Smith	32,487
Bob Henry	32,254
Alan Satterlee	32,147
Michael Nease	32,110
Sam Hendricks	32,075
Tony Holm	32,074
Aaron Bland	31,462
Mike Clay	31,261