I am sorry to have to be the bearer of bad news, but that staple of your fantasy football league, the Serpentine Draft method, is not a fair drafting tool. In fact, it is a rarely mentioned dirty little secret that the top three (and even top half) of the owners in the draft have an unfair advantage over the other drafters. This is information your commissioner and the pay league operators do not want you to know.
“Say it isn’t so Joe”. The main reason most of us do the Serpentine Draft method in the first place is because we have been sold its worth as the “great equalizer”. Wrong! The premise of the design is to even out the advantage of having an early pick by reversing the draft order in the next round, thus giving everyone the same chance. But this does not happen in evenly balanced leagues. The sad reality is that a draft spot in the top half of the draft gives you a slight advantage over those in the bottom half of the draft. I would argue the advantage is as much as 10 percent (even greater if you get one of the top three picks).
What is the Serpentine draft method? It reverses the draft order every round to compensate for the obvious disadvantages. So in a 14 team league, team #1 with the first pick in round 1 (pick 1.01 or the 1st pick overall) would get the last pick in round two (pick 2.14; 28th overall). In every odd-numbered draft round team 1 gets the first pick and in every even-numbered round they get the last pick. So the order goes like this 1-14, 14-1, 1-14, 14-1 and so on reversing order every round, kind of like a snake (hence the Serpentine moniker). Sounds fair enough, right? The first shall be last and all that jazz. The team with the last pick in round 1, team 14 gets pick 1.14 (14th overall) and pick 2.01 (15th overall). So while not exactly glad to be last, that owner does feel compensated since they get two of the first 15 picks. But is it enough?
How can one weigh the importance of a draft pick? Draft spot calculators take a draft pick and try to quantify them with a value. Using my own Trade Analyzer (from either of my books “Fantasy Football Guidebook” or “Fantasy Football Almanac 2011”-out May 15th) shows that in the Serpentine system team 1 has a substantial advantage over all of the other teams when his picks are weighted using a picks calculator.
Serpentine Draft (1-14, 14-1, 1-14, 14-1)
Pick (Overall Pick) Value
Team 1 1.01 (1st) 378
Team 1 2.14 (28th) 174
Team 1 3.01 (29th) 171
Team 1 4.14 (56th) 106
Total Value in First 4 Rounds in Serpentine = 829
Pick (Overall Pick) Value
Team 2 1.14 (14th) 247
Team 2 2.01 (15th) 240
Team 2 3.14 (42nd) 134
Team 2 4.01 (43rd) 132
Total Value in First 4 Rounds in Serpentine = 753 (76 less than Team 1)
Team 1 with the 1st, 28th , 29th and 56th picks of the first 4 rounds has a 76 point advantage over the last team to pick, Team 14 with the 14th, 15th, 42nd and 43rd picks overall. That value equates to a free 6th round pick for Team 1.
As you can see, not only is the first pick so valuable but the third pick (1st pick in the 3rd round) is as well. As the draft progresses the value of each pick decreases. The first pick is worth much more than the 280th pick (last pick in a 20 round, 14-team draft). Therefore, even though the Serpentine draft continues to give Team 1 advantages every two rounds, that advantage diminishes progressively as the draft continues. This occurs for several other reasons. First, the quality of player depth (and thus value) decreases with every pick after the first pick. Simply put “the pickings get slimmer as the draft progresses” and you cannot get better value with your picks as you make your way to the end. Second, Value Based Drafting (VBD) tends to taper off in the late to middle rounds (at 100 picks overall) because teams end up drafting for team needs rather than getting the best value player. Team needs make a team get a handcuff, back up or starter at a lower skill position versus the best player available. So if a team needs a TE in the 14th round, having the 1st pick or the 14th pick that round is of little consequence as they are going to get a TE regardless.
Therefore, it is not just the 1st pick of the draft but also the 3rd round pick as well that causes the unfairness towards the higher pick teams. The trade calculator supports the theory of unfairness. But what about your draft results? Several recent studies have shown that, when large numbers of leagues (we are talking about tens of thousands per year) are examined, the top 50% of draft spots win their leagues 60% of the time.
What about the perception of which draft pick is the best. If I offered you my 12th spot in exchange for your 1st spot, would you do it? Most would say no. If the top spots are not willing to trade with the lower spot than there is a perceived inequality of draft spots. Until we have a system where any draft spot is considered just as favorable, then we have an unfair system. Think about it this way. If you knew the outcome of the upcoming season, every player’s eventual statistics for the next year; which draft spot would you want to have?
I am not denying that anyone can win from any draft spot in any given year. It is just that some draft spots have a better chance. It is like playing the lottery. Anyone can win, but the person who already knows one of the numbers has a better chance of winning.
How can we fix it? Auction drafts are by far the fairest and have no draft spot bias. Third round reversal is also an option in which case the 2nd and 3rd rounds are reversed. But even that seems to have a small bias. The bonsai draft method reverses the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds and seems to be the closest thing to fair other than an auction draft.
Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669
Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634
Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650
Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428693
Showing posts with label Draft Expert. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Draft Expert. Show all posts
Sunday, May 8, 2011
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
FFGuidebook.com in the Top 10 at FFPC Pro's vs Joes Competition
Overall Leader Standings
Quite a diverse group. Some are Pros, some are Joes. But here are the Top 10 of 72 competitors after week 1. Here is the weblink too....
http://www.fantasymojo.com/mojo/news.do?action=getProsJoesLeaders
Rank Team Total Points
1 Yellow Line is Unofficial* 210.05
2 Just Russ * 203.40
3 Ultimate FF Strategy* 192.45
4 BFD Fantasy Football 190.25
5 Zeus* 190.05
6 Draft Sharks * 189.75
7 MONEY INCORPORATED* 189.05
8 Syracuse Slappers 185.95
9 Fantasy Football Calculator 183.75
10 FFGuidebook.com 183.70
* Means Team Leads their individual divison
Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($9.95, www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669)
Fantasy Football Guidebook: Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95 on sale for $17.95) http://www.amazon.com/1602640203
Fantasy Football Almanac 2009: The Essential Fantasy Football Reference Guide ($12.95, http://www.amazon.com/1602643989)
Quite a diverse group. Some are Pros, some are Joes. But here are the Top 10 of 72 competitors after week 1. Here is the weblink too....
http://www.fantasymojo.com/mojo/news.do?action=getProsJoesLeaders
Rank Team Total Points
1 Yellow Line is Unofficial* 210.05
2 Just Russ * 203.40
3 Ultimate FF Strategy* 192.45
4 BFD Fantasy Football 190.25
5 Zeus* 190.05
6 Draft Sharks * 189.75
7 MONEY INCORPORATED* 189.05
8 Syracuse Slappers 185.95
9 Fantasy Football Calculator 183.75
10 FFGuidebook.com 183.70
* Means Team Leads their individual divison
Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($9.95, www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669)
Fantasy Football Guidebook: Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95 on sale for $17.95) http://www.amazon.com/1602640203
Fantasy Football Almanac 2009: The Essential Fantasy Football Reference Guide ($12.95, http://www.amazon.com/1602643989)
Monday, August 24, 2009
Tips for Draft Master or Draft Expert Leagues-Part 2
8) If you get a big name at QB (Brady, Manning, Brees) get his handcuff too. No other owner will want Jim Sorgi so you can wait and take him with your last pick. This will also mean you have 4 QBs instead of 3. However, the insurance policy is worth it.
9) If you get in a bind and have to skip a player from the rule of having three at QB, TE, K and DEF then skip the defense since they will never have an injury to take them out of the lineup.
10) Use discriminators when deciding between players in the same tier. Use bye weeks first then decide if they are a conservative or aggressive pick. A player who is suspended or injury prone is not a good thing for a DM team. Go with players who are hot/cold if paired up with a consistent player as well.
A later bye is another discriminator I use. My philosophy is that I want to get as many points as possible from them before an injury occurs. If he plays for only 5 weeks and one of those was his bye then I only had him for 4 weeks effectively. Now take the same player and the same injury but his bye week is in week 8. I had him for 5 weeks. I also think it is easier to recharge with a later bye week. If you have only played 3 games and then you get a break it does less good then if you have played 8 games and then get a week off.
11) Avoid Kickers and QBs who have job security issues. No reason to pick a QB who may be good if he starts. If he does not start, you have just shot yourself in the foot. Better to have an average starter than a good clipboard holder.
12) You will have 32 defenses to choose from, kickers, however, are less sure as some are fighting to keep their job. Plan on only 26-28 kickers as really being draftable. So favor kickers over Defenses.
13) Draft a RBs handcuff since this is best ball. The best player automatically gets the start in this format. Grab RBs that are in a RBBC situation to monopolize the scores.
If you can get Donald Brown and Joseph Addai then you have cornered the IND RBs no matter who scores.
14) RBs are more consistent with their points (other then the top WRs) so I target RBs early and draft more WRs late and hope that quantity trumps quality.
15) Research the league to determine how many of each position are drafted and when. Know when you need to take your 3rd QB, TE, K and Defense. For example, in the FFPC Action 77’s only about 28 Kickers and Defenses were drafted. So you could afford to wait a little before getting your last one. I would take my 3rd kicker before the 3rd defense simply because there are only about 26-28 reliable kickers and you do not want to take one that may be suspended (Hartley NO)or hurt or fighting for his job.
16) Do not wait too long to get handcuffs for stud RBs. Remember every other owner will be drafting quite a lot of RBs so chances are good they will take the one you need just as easily.
17) In the FFPC with a 26 player roster I like this team 3 QB/6 RB/8 WR/ 3 TE/ 3 K/3 DEF. Maybe even 7 RBs and 7 WRs if the RB7 is a needed handcuff. Expect Defenses to go in the 15th round and Kickers to go in rounds 19 and 20. And without a doubt the expanded roster (26 players versus for example, WCOFF's 25) means I like the 3 QB, TE, K and Defense play. If I dropped one of those it would be Defense since they cannot be lost to injury.
Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($9.95, www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669)
Fantasy Football Guidebook: Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95 on sale for $17.95) http://www.amazon.com/1602640203
Fantasy Football Almanac 2009: The Essential Fantasy Football Reference Guide ($12.95, http://www.amazon.com/1602643989)
9) If you get in a bind and have to skip a player from the rule of having three at QB, TE, K and DEF then skip the defense since they will never have an injury to take them out of the lineup.
10) Use discriminators when deciding between players in the same tier. Use bye weeks first then decide if they are a conservative or aggressive pick. A player who is suspended or injury prone is not a good thing for a DM team. Go with players who are hot/cold if paired up with a consistent player as well.
A later bye is another discriminator I use. My philosophy is that I want to get as many points as possible from them before an injury occurs. If he plays for only 5 weeks and one of those was his bye then I only had him for 4 weeks effectively. Now take the same player and the same injury but his bye week is in week 8. I had him for 5 weeks. I also think it is easier to recharge with a later bye week. If you have only played 3 games and then you get a break it does less good then if you have played 8 games and then get a week off.
11) Avoid Kickers and QBs who have job security issues. No reason to pick a QB who may be good if he starts. If he does not start, you have just shot yourself in the foot. Better to have an average starter than a good clipboard holder.
12) You will have 32 defenses to choose from, kickers, however, are less sure as some are fighting to keep their job. Plan on only 26-28 kickers as really being draftable. So favor kickers over Defenses.
13) Draft a RBs handcuff since this is best ball. The best player automatically gets the start in this format. Grab RBs that are in a RBBC situation to monopolize the scores.
If you can get Donald Brown and Joseph Addai then you have cornered the IND RBs no matter who scores.
14) RBs are more consistent with their points (other then the top WRs) so I target RBs early and draft more WRs late and hope that quantity trumps quality.
15) Research the league to determine how many of each position are drafted and when. Know when you need to take your 3rd QB, TE, K and Defense. For example, in the FFPC Action 77’s only about 28 Kickers and Defenses were drafted. So you could afford to wait a little before getting your last one. I would take my 3rd kicker before the 3rd defense simply because there are only about 26-28 reliable kickers and you do not want to take one that may be suspended (Hartley NO)or hurt or fighting for his job.
16) Do not wait too long to get handcuffs for stud RBs. Remember every other owner will be drafting quite a lot of RBs so chances are good they will take the one you need just as easily.
17) In the FFPC with a 26 player roster I like this team 3 QB/6 RB/8 WR/ 3 TE/ 3 K/3 DEF. Maybe even 7 RBs and 7 WRs if the RB7 is a needed handcuff. Expect Defenses to go in the 15th round and Kickers to go in rounds 19 and 20. And without a doubt the expanded roster (26 players versus for example, WCOFF's 25) means I like the 3 QB, TE, K and Defense play. If I dropped one of those it would be Defense since they cannot be lost to injury.
Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($9.95, www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669)
Fantasy Football Guidebook: Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95 on sale for $17.95) http://www.amazon.com/1602640203
Fantasy Football Almanac 2009: The Essential Fantasy Football Reference Guide ($12.95, http://www.amazon.com/1602643989)
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
FFPC Pros vs. Joes DraftMasters Challenge
Pros vs. Joes League 6 Irvin’s Candy Store
Here is what I drafted from the 12th spot.
Pos Name Bye Team Pick
QB Trent Edwards 9 BUF R9 P12
QB Jake Delhomme 4 CAR R10 P1
QB Chad Pennington 6 MIA R11 P12
RB Kevin Smith 7 DET R3 P12
RB Cedric Benson 8 CIN R5 P12
RB Jamal Lewis 9 CLE R7 P12
RB Jerious Norwood 4 ATL R12 P1
RB Ricky Williams 6 MIA R14 P1
RB Maurice Morris 7 DET R15 P12
RB Leonard Weaver 4 PHI R26 P1
WR Larry Fitzgerald 4 ARI R1 P12
WR Calvin Johnson 7 DET R2 P1
WR Terrell Owens 9 BUF R4 P1
WR Santana Moss 8 WAS R8 P1
WR Devin Thomas 8 WAS R18 P1
WR Chansi Stuckey 9 NYJ R19 P12
WR Matt Jones -- FA R25 P12
TE Owen Daniels 10 HOU R6 P1
TE Tony Scheffler 7 DEN R13 P12
TE Chase Coffman 8 CIN R20 P1
K Lawrence Tynes 10 NYG R21 P12
K Nick Folk 6 DAL R22 P1
K Josh Scobee 7 JAX R24 P1
DEF Philadelphia Eagles 4 PHI R16 P1
DEF Miami Dolphins 6 MIA R17 P12
DEF Houston Texans 10 HOU R23 P12
Larry Fitz dropped to me with the 12th pick and I grabbed him but I then went WR with the first pick of the 2nd round too. At 2.01 I took Calvin Johnson to go WR-WR. Mistake! I even looked quickly at what round 3 and 4 would bring and I saw lots of WRs. So I should have gone with DeAngelo Williams instead of CJ.
Of course 23 picks later it makes it back to me and I have to reach for a starting RB in Kevin Smith and then I see T.O still on the board. I just could not reach for another RB and went with a value play in Owens. So now I am at 1 RB and 3 WRs and it is time to stock up on RBs.
Cedric Benson (5.12) is a starter and I like him to improve on his 2nd half performance. But again rather then reach for a RB (which I need) I go with a Top 5 TE in Owen Daniels with 6.01.
So after 6 rounds I am at 2 RB/3WRs/1 TE.
The 7/8 turn leaves me with just Jamal Lewis ( other options were Hightower/Donald Brown and Leon Washington all who may prove to be better than the old starter Lewis) and then I saw Santana Moss and got greedy again at WR (8.01). Mistake. Should have gone with another RB from the three mentioned above.
9/10 and 11 are QBs as I try and make up for no QB early. T Edwards, Jake Delhomme and Chad Pennington give me a good shot at decent numbers in this best ball format.
The rest of the draft was to get 2 more TEs and 3 Kickers and Defenses.and some supporting RBs and WRs.
Maurice Morris was to handcuff Kevin Smith.
Matt Jones will start for someone at some point in 2009
To see the entire draft click here
http://www.fantasymojo.com/mojo/news.do?action=prosvsjoesdraftviewer&draftId=112851
Here is what I drafted from the 12th spot.
Pos Name Bye Team Pick
QB Trent Edwards 9 BUF R9 P12
QB Jake Delhomme 4 CAR R10 P1
QB Chad Pennington 6 MIA R11 P12
RB Kevin Smith 7 DET R3 P12
RB Cedric Benson 8 CIN R5 P12
RB Jamal Lewis 9 CLE R7 P12
RB Jerious Norwood 4 ATL R12 P1
RB Ricky Williams 6 MIA R14 P1
RB Maurice Morris 7 DET R15 P12
RB Leonard Weaver 4 PHI R26 P1
WR Larry Fitzgerald 4 ARI R1 P12
WR Calvin Johnson 7 DET R2 P1
WR Terrell Owens 9 BUF R4 P1
WR Santana Moss 8 WAS R8 P1
WR Devin Thomas 8 WAS R18 P1
WR Chansi Stuckey 9 NYJ R19 P12
WR Matt Jones -- FA R25 P12
TE Owen Daniels 10 HOU R6 P1
TE Tony Scheffler 7 DEN R13 P12
TE Chase Coffman 8 CIN R20 P1
K Lawrence Tynes 10 NYG R21 P12
K Nick Folk 6 DAL R22 P1
K Josh Scobee 7 JAX R24 P1
DEF Philadelphia Eagles 4 PHI R16 P1
DEF Miami Dolphins 6 MIA R17 P12
DEF Houston Texans 10 HOU R23 P12
Larry Fitz dropped to me with the 12th pick and I grabbed him but I then went WR with the first pick of the 2nd round too. At 2.01 I took Calvin Johnson to go WR-WR. Mistake! I even looked quickly at what round 3 and 4 would bring and I saw lots of WRs. So I should have gone with DeAngelo Williams instead of CJ.
Of course 23 picks later it makes it back to me and I have to reach for a starting RB in Kevin Smith and then I see T.O still on the board. I just could not reach for another RB and went with a value play in Owens. So now I am at 1 RB and 3 WRs and it is time to stock up on RBs.
Cedric Benson (5.12) is a starter and I like him to improve on his 2nd half performance. But again rather then reach for a RB (which I need) I go with a Top 5 TE in Owen Daniels with 6.01.
So after 6 rounds I am at 2 RB/3WRs/1 TE.
The 7/8 turn leaves me with just Jamal Lewis ( other options were Hightower/Donald Brown and Leon Washington all who may prove to be better than the old starter Lewis) and then I saw Santana Moss and got greedy again at WR (8.01). Mistake. Should have gone with another RB from the three mentioned above.
9/10 and 11 are QBs as I try and make up for no QB early. T Edwards, Jake Delhomme and Chad Pennington give me a good shot at decent numbers in this best ball format.
The rest of the draft was to get 2 more TEs and 3 Kickers and Defenses.and some supporting RBs and WRs.
Maurice Morris was to handcuff Kevin Smith.
Matt Jones will start for someone at some point in 2009
To see the entire draft click here
http://www.fantasymojo.com/mojo/news.do?action=prosvsjoesdraftviewer&draftId=112851
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Watch FFPC Pros vs Joes Draft live tonight at 9 PM E.S.T with Sam Hendricks at 12th spot
Background: Tonight is the last (of the 6 total) Pros vs Joes Draft Challenge. A draft was held on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday night last week and this week, where tonights is the last league.
To review briefly, these drafts pit the players at FFPC (the Joes) against an assortment of industry experts (the Pros). Each league consists of 12 teams which conduct a 26 round draft in a DraftExperts format (best ball scoring). A bundle of prizes and bragging rights are on the line, as well the prestige of being crowned the 2009 FFPC Pros vs Joes Draft Challenge Champion.
I am a Pro in this 6th draft representing my books, Fantasy Football Guidebook: Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95 on sale for $17.95) http://www.amazon.com/1602640203
and Fantasy Football Tips ($9.95) http://www.amazon.com/0982428669
I draft from the 12th spot
The draft will go off around 9:00 pm EST tonight. If you want to view the picks as they happen, or want to review the results after the fact, visit FantasyMojo's Joes vs Pros draft viewing page below.
Here is a link to the draft site. Select Thursday (8/13) Nights Draft and you will connect with a draft board where you can watch the draft live!
http://www.fantasymojo.com/mojo/news.do?action=showArticleId&articleid=114
Rules: This is a 26 round draft using the Fantasy Football Players Championship (www.theFFPC.com) scoring and roster configuration.
(That’s Point Per Reception (PPR)of 1 for RBs and WRs and 1.5 PPR for TE’s).
It a best ball/ optimal lineup configuration, so the system will automatically plug in your best performing players each week. So it is a "draft and forget" system where there will be no weekly lineup decisons and no free agent additions or trades the entire season.
What you draft is what you get.
The weekly starting roster is distributed as follows:
1 QB
2 RB
2 WR
1 TE
2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
1 K
1 D
Hope you enjoy the show!
To review briefly, these drafts pit the players at FFPC (the Joes) against an assortment of industry experts (the Pros). Each league consists of 12 teams which conduct a 26 round draft in a DraftExperts format (best ball scoring). A bundle of prizes and bragging rights are on the line, as well the prestige of being crowned the 2009 FFPC Pros vs Joes Draft Challenge Champion.
I am a Pro in this 6th draft representing my books, Fantasy Football Guidebook: Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95 on sale for $17.95) http://www.amazon.com/1602640203
and Fantasy Football Tips ($9.95) http://www.amazon.com/0982428669
I draft from the 12th spot
The draft will go off around 9:00 pm EST tonight. If you want to view the picks as they happen, or want to review the results after the fact, visit FantasyMojo's Joes vs Pros draft viewing page below.
Here is a link to the draft site. Select Thursday (8/13) Nights Draft and you will connect with a draft board where you can watch the draft live!
http://www.fantasymojo.com/mojo/news.do?action=showArticleId&articleid=114
Rules: This is a 26 round draft using the Fantasy Football Players Championship (www.theFFPC.com) scoring and roster configuration.
(That’s Point Per Reception (PPR)of 1 for RBs and WRs and 1.5 PPR for TE’s).
It a best ball/ optimal lineup configuration, so the system will automatically plug in your best performing players each week. So it is a "draft and forget" system where there will be no weekly lineup decisons and no free agent additions or trades the entire season.
What you draft is what you get.
The weekly starting roster is distributed as follows:
1 QB
2 RB
2 WR
1 TE
2 Flex (RB/WR/TE)
1 K
1 D
Hope you enjoy the show!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)