Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Pros vs Joes Draft Results

The Pros vs Joes Mutant Division (Friday 26 July) Draft is complete and my team is below along with comments on what I was or was not thinking.

As a reminder this is a "Draft Master" league in which it is draft and forget-no add/drops, trades or setting of lineups. Thats right it is the ultimate "mulligan" type of league where the computer always picks the players who maximize your team score. No more debating over which QB to start or which flex player could give you the most points. Instead after the games are played, the computer puts in the players to maximize your teams weekly score. 

So drafting strategy is a little different from a traditional Head-to-Head (H2H) league. For instance Boom/Bust players are more valuable in this kind of "Draft and go" league because you get their boom games and do not have to suffer through their bust games since another player could replace them thanks to the computer support. 

Running Back By Committee (RBBC) approaches are not as big a problem either since the computer can start whichever RB has the hot hand in the week. 

So....you can have a higher risk strategy. On the other hand, you also should consider drafting more than one or two players at QB, TE, K and Defense. Why? Well you need help during injuries and bye weeks. If you only have two kickers on your team and one is injured for any length of time, then you could find a reduction in points. I recommend 3 at each of the positions where you start one player (QB, TE, K and Def) and if you need to only have two at a position, then defenses always play (unless on a bye) so you could draft just two there if necessary. 

And now on to my team...

Andy Dalton CIN/12 (12.11)
Philip Rivers SD/8     (14.11)
Sam Bradford STL/11 (15.02)

I waited on QB and then pounced on 3 mid range QBs in rounds 12, 14 and 15.
I think these three can give me the same production as a Top 8 QB and his pairings could. Dalton is the rock, a top 12. I expect a bounce back from Rivers and Bradford is ahead this year in his progressions and has more weapons. The 14th is typically where teams get there QB2 in these 26 round drafts-9 went between 13.10 and 15.5-9 of 20 picks!!

Doug Martin TB/5   (1.02)
Alfred Morris WAS/5 (2.11)
MJD Jax/9 (3.02)
R. Mendenahll AZ/9 (6.11)
Jonathan Stewart CAR/4  (11.11)
Justin Forsett JAX/9 (26.11)

Started RB-RB-RB. Martin was a no-brainer when AP went first. Thought Alfred Morris at 23 was a steal and could not believe he fell to me there, but hate that he is on the same bye week as Martin-arg! Week 5 could be a dismal week for me. Glad it is not H2H.  By the time 3.02 came around I decided to go all in and take MJD (he has been Top 10 in 5 of his 7 seasons and this is a contract year). But his training camp shape has me worried. Mendy is a nice RB4 about a round later than I expected. In the FFPC you can start 4 RBs each week (2 RBs and 2 Flex players). 
J Stewart is a hope that his ankles are not as bad as they look. People always overestimate news be it good or bad. My hope is that we have all overestimated how bad it could be. I am willing to take a chance in the 11th on him. With my last pick I take a possible handcuff for MJD-he scares me some. So does Denard Robinson but he was already drafted by then. 

Hakeem Nicks NYG/9 (4.11)
Antonio Brown PIT/5 (5.02)
Stevie Johnson BUF/12 (7.02)
Anquan Boldin SF/9 (9.02)
Andre Roberts AZ/9   (16.11)
Stephen Hill NYJ/10   (18.11)
Mario Manningham SF/9   (24.11)
Justin Hunter TEN/8 (25.02) 

Needed WRs and doubled up on them in the 4th/5th and then 7th and 9th. Four starting WRs all in my top 30. I really like Andre Roberts as an anchor-someone who will be consistent for your team, but again bye week 9. Now I have 3 of my 5 WRs on a bye that week (and two of my top 4 RBs too). Hope my TEs pick up the slack that week.

Stephen Hill-someone has to catch passes on the Jets right?
Manningham-I am just blind to bye week 9.
Justin Hunter-what are the odds Kenny Britt gets hurt or in trouble before the season ends?

Owen Daniels HOU/8 (8.11)
Antonio Gates SD/8 (10.11)
Jermaine Gresham CIN/12 (13.2)

Waited on TEs a rarity here in the FFPC. Remember Tight Ends get 1.5 PPR in their scoring format. Followed up with Gates and Gresham as they were really the only thing left. My TEs are a little long in the tooth but...I like a rebound year for Rivers-Gates and Gresham is being written off too much because of a rookie TE in CIN when I see more two TE sets with Dalton. I hate that two of my TEs have the same bye week but desperate measures require desperate action.

Justin Tucker BAL/8 (19.2)
Matt Crosby GB/4     (21.2)
Mike Nugent CIN/12 (23.2)

All I want is three kickers on different bye weeks and who are not in a position battle with anyone. Oh and if they kick in a dome especially in December it would be nice. To do all of these things for three kickers you need to start drafting them in the 19th round. Nugent is a good fit since I expect CIN to score more-Dalton to Gresham anyone?

PIT/5 (17.02)
MIA/6 (20.11)
SD/8 (22.11)

Reached a little for the Steelers defense but I like them paired with some mid range defenses for great strength of schedule match ups.
Love the PIT-MIA Defense by Committee approach.

Here it is round by round


Doug Martin, TB
Alfred Morris, Was
Hakeem Nicks, NYG
Antonio Brown, Pit
Steve Johnson, Buf
Owen Daniels, Hou
Anquan Boldin, SF
Antonio Gates, SD
Jonathan Stewart, Car
Andy Dalton, Cin
Jermaine Gresham, Cin
Philip Rivers, SD
Sam Bradford, StL
Andre Roberts, Ari
Stephen Hill, NYJ
Justin Tucker, Bal
Miami Dolphins, Mia
Mason Crosby, GB
Mike Nugent, Cin
Mario Manningham, SF
Justin Hunter, Ten
Justin Forsett, Jac

3 QBs, 6 RBs, 8 WRs, 3 TEs, 3 Ks and 3 Def 
-K or  Def in rounds 19-23

What would I have done differently?
Andre Johnson or Vincent Jackson in the 3rd instead of MJD and then added DeAngelo Williams in the 7th instead of Steve Johnson. 

Only time will tell how I did. I look forward to carrying the Divison trophy over my head as I cash in the first place prize of a FFPC Main Event entry ($1,550).

Do you want 2013 FF rankings? Check out my Fantasy Football Player Rankings 2013 at Amazon.com. 

Books from Extra Point Press:
Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650

Fantasy Football Tips: 201 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($10.95) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428669

Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon 

Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95) 

Fantasy Soccer: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Soccer Players ($14.95) 

Fantasy Hockey: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Hockey Players ($14.95) www.amazon.com/dp/1936635100

Fantasy Basketball Handbook: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Beginners and Experienced Players ($12.95) www.amazon.com/dp/

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