Thursday, March 21, 2019

Fantasy Football Guidebook finishes 2nd out of 20 Experts in Fantasy Index Magazine QB Rankings for 2018

At the quarterback position, Patrick Mahomes and Andrew Luck were the key guys in 2018. They both tended to be drafted outside the top 10, and they’re the guys who most dramatically outperformed their draft position, combining for 89 touchdown passes.
So in our Experts Poll, those who did the best job of pushing those guys up the draft board fairly did the best. Those who tried to play it safe by leaving Luck’s injured shoulder out of their top 20 instead sabotaged their own draft board.
Justin Eleff of the Fantasy Index Podcast had the lowest combined rankings on those players – 8th for Luck and 12th for Mahomes – and was able to ride it to a landside victory, outscoring everyone else by almost 2,000 points.
Bob Henry had the best Mahomes ranking (8th) but undermined that selection by leaving Luck off his board. He finished a modest 15th.
Mike Clay had the 2nd-lowest rankings on the two key quarterbacks (7th for Luck, 14th for Mahomes) but hurt his top 20 by ranking Jared Goff way lower (20th) than everyone else. That backfired, and he finished only 8th.
Sam Hendricks (Extra Point Press) finished 2nd in this category, and did so without standout selections on Luck (20th) or Mahomes (14th). Hendricks instead built his top 20 around ranking Philip Rivers higher than anyone else (7th), and being higher than most on a number of other quarterbacks who played well, including Drew Brees (5th), Matt Ryan (13th) and Ben Roethlisberger (6th).
Jeff Ratcliffe of Pro Football Focus finished 3rd at the quarterback position. He had the 3rd-best combined ranking of the two key quarterbacks, slotting Luck 11th and Mahomes 14th.
Justin Eleff107,003
Sam Hendricks105,216
Jeff Ratcliffe105,213
Paul Charchian104,803
Cory Bonini104,712
Lenny Pappano104,694
Alan Satterlee104,559
Mike Clay104,373
Jesse Pantuosco104,213
Patrick Chance103,578
Harold Simons103,487
Jody Smith103,422
Michael Nazarek103,112
Tony Holm103,003
Bob Henry102,918
Scott Pianowski102,383
Chris Liss101,372
Michael Nease101,339
David Dorey100,822
Aaron Bland100,108
Injuries typically play a big role at this position. When a quarterback ranked in the top 10 in the preseason misses most of the season, he tends to destroy a lot of entries. But there were fewer injuries at this position this year. Jimmy Garoppolo was really the only coveted quarterback who missed most of the season. That was a gut punch to those who had him slotted for a breakout-type year, including Aaron Bland (7th), David Dorey (8th) and Chris Liss (8th).
To smooth the rankings to account for injuries, we also offer more of a Value Based Drafting system, looking only at quarterbacks who ended up with starting numbers – top 12 – and not worrying about the rest. Such a scoring system is intended to reward those who can find good production, while not giving much weight to the lesser picks and busts.
In that scoring system, Eleff was still the decisive winner, followed by Ratcliffe and Clay.
Justin Eleff7,459
Jeff Ratcliffe6,827
Mike Clay6,800
Sam Hendricks6,789
Jesse Pantuosco6,777
Bob Henry6,675
Alan Satterlee6,653
Patrick Chance6,528
Cory Bonini6,508
Lenny Pappano6,502
Paul Charchian6,411
Harold Simons6,297
David Dorey5,746
Scott Pianowski5,624
Aaron Bland5,435
Michael Nazarek5,375
Tony Holm5,210
Jody Smith5,141
Chris Liss4,716
Michael Nease4,027

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