Tuesday, March 19, 2019

FantasyFootballGuidebook.com finishes 4th out fo 20 Experts in Fantasy Index Magazine RB Rankings for 2018

Michael Nease was super aggressive with his running back picks in the Experts Poll last year; with seven different running backs, he ranked them higher or lower than any of the 19 other analysts. And Nease hit on enough of those picks to outperform the rest of the field at this position.
It wasn’t pretty at times. Nease ranked Todd Gurley (6th) and Saquon Barkley (12th) a lot lower than anyone else – picks that rightfully cost him a ton of points. They finished as the top-2 scoring running backs (using standard scoring).
But Nease hit on enough other picks to salvage the best score. He ranked Alvin Kamara as his No. 1 back, for example, which was about 4 spots higher than the vast majority of experts. The Kamara pick helped to essentially cancel one of his misses on Gurley and Barkley. He was also one of only two experts to rank LeVeon Bell just 5th, which paid off when Bell didn’t even play (most ranked Bell either 2nd or 3rd). Similarly, Nease ranked Devonta Freeman only 17th, about 5 spots lower than most; that also paid off big-time when Freeman missed most of the season.
Nease was also among the highest on Christian McCaffrey (13th), which ended up being a huge boon.
Total them up and Nease, who writes for Big Guy Fantasy Sports, ended up in the top spot using our complex scoring system. In this contest, you don’t draft players. Instead, everyone in your top 20 counts; the higher you rank them, the more they count towards your score.
Bob Henry of Football Guys finished 2nd in this category. Patrick Chance took 3rd. Unlike 18 of the other contestants, Chance isn’t an industry writer. Instead, he earned a berth in the competition by finishing in the top 2 in the Fantasy Index Open last year. (Speaking of the open, those scores will be released early in the week.)
EXPERTS POLL, RUNNING BACKS (standard scoring)
Michael Nease55,992
Bob Henry55,512
Patrick Chance54,749
Sam Hendricks54,396
Michael Nazarek54,272
Justin Eleff53,947
Scott Pianowski53,551
Lenny Pappano53,547
Paul Charchian53,309
Cory Bonini53,208
Jody Smith52,716
Jesse Pantuosco52,648
David Dorey52,572
Harold Simons51,868
Alan Satterlee51,858
Chris Liss51,573
Tony Holm51,437
Aaron Bland49,768
Jeff Ratcliffe49,495
Mike Clay49,383
With this competition, attrition tends to play a huge role. Rank a player like LeVeon Bell, Derrius Guice or Devonta Freeman too high, and you’re screwed. Those kind of players, in fact, end up being more important than how you happened to order guys like Gurley, Barkley, McCaffrey and Ezekiel Elliott.
With that in mind, we also score the poll using more of a Value-Based Drafting system. In such a format, you pull out the starters at each position – 12 QB, K, TE and Def, 24 RB and 24 WRs – and look at who was the best at identifying them. The rest of the players, get moved to the side (you just assume that everyone else produced the same as the best backup at each position).
Using the VBD scoring system, Patrick Chance, Sam Hendricks (Extra Point Press) and Henry were the top finishers, with Nease falling back towards the middle of the pack.
It’s a reminder that these picks can be scored in various plausible ways.
Patrick Chance21,695
Sam Hendricks21,479
Bob Henry21,330
Michael Nazarek20,993
Scott Pianowski20,954
Lenny Pappano20,931
Jesse Pantuosco20,915
Michael Nease20,915
Justin Eleff20,847
David Dorey20,659
Harold Simons20,489
Alan Satterlee20,455
Paul Charchian20,375
Jody Smith20,343
Cory Bonini20,189
Chris Liss19,346
Mike Clay19,256
Tony Holm18,864
Aaron Bland18,710
Jeff Ratcliffe18,655
With one position left to grade, Bob Henry is the overall leader, with Nease, Michael Nazarek, Scott Pianowski and Lenny Pappano close behind. Henry has finished 4th, 2nd and 2nd in the last three positions to overcome a slow start.
The last position, however, is the one with the most points at stake: quarterbacks. Those will be tabulated on Sunday.
EXPERTS POLL, OVERALL (standard scoring)
Bob Henry1415422204,738
Michael Nease1618941203,874
Michael Nazarek1123125203,444
Scott Pianowski101867203,095
Lenny Pappano519238203,048
Sam Hendricks1710654202,869
Patrick Chance6911103202,676
Alan Satterlee15121115202,463
Paul Charchian141589201,396
Jesse Pantuosco83101412200,906
Justin Eleff21414176200,054
David Dorey121671613199,673
Chris Liss31151816199,633
Cory Bonini9820710199,342
Harold Simons45171114198,769
Jody Smith137191511198,228
Tony Holm1817131917196,332
Jeff Ratcliffe71318919195,585
Mike Clay206161320194,188
Aaron Bland1920122018194,073
Using the VBD scoring system, Henry and Nease are also in the top 2 spots with only one position left to score.
Bob Henry151611350,022
Michael Nease91242849,448
Lenny Pappano111134649,305
Patrick Chance718811149,072
Scott Pianowski36117549,035
Sam Hendricks17498248,942
Alan Satterlee1813231248,623
Michael Nazarek133516448,435
David Dorey196171048,223
Jesse Pantuosco1281014748,162
Paul Charchian221661347,918
Harold Simons871991147,158
Cory Bonini412051547,027
Chris Liss51012131646,770
Justin Eleff10171519946,770
Jody Smith161413151446,480
Jeff Ratcliffe141917102045,134
Aaron Bland1957201944,979
Tony Holm61514181844,935
Mike Clay202018121744,611

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