Fantasy Football Tip #231 Use your gut! Projections are not the gospel.

Fantasy Football Tip #231-Use your gut when it comes to projections.

First if you are going to use someone else's projections-use 2-3 different sites and compare them. If two websites say your RB will score 12 points and the third says he will score 6 points. Trust the two and throw out the third. 

But be realistic in these projections. If a site states that your WR will have 6 catches for 65 yards and .4 TDs, it does not mean he will score 14 points. It is an estimate people. He could score zero if he pulls a hammy in the pre game warmups or go off and have a career game when the shutdown corner misses the game. 

DO NOT GET TOO WRAPPED UP in obsessing with the difference between three projections that are close. I mean really is their a lot of effort going into wringing your hands between 10.3 Fantasy Points and 11.1 FP and 12.2 FP. So one of the projections has an extra catch-big deal.

And what are the projections based on? The 4 week previous average in most cases with a bias based on what the defense they are facing has given up to that position the past 4 weeks. 
And by the way, they probably are not updated right before game time when the injuries are listed. So if a key WR will miss the game, the projections probably do not reflect  a decrease for the QB or an increase for the WR2 who is now asked to step it up some. 

How about weather? Maybe but probably not reflected in the ranking/projections. 

Bottom line-use your gut. Do not take these projections as the gospel. Instead use them as a first guide to how your players may perform and then apply some common sense and judgment to modify/adjust them for the current situation. 


These great holiday gift ideas from Sam Hendricks are available at Amazon and BN as paperbacks and ebooks:

Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition)
Fantasy Football Tips (2nd Edition)
Fantasy Football Basics


Fantasy Baseball for Beginners

Fantasy Hockey

Fantasy Soccer

Fantasy Basketball Handbook


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Books from Extra Point Press:

Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650

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Fantasy Football Tips (2nd Edition): 230 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($12.95) 
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Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95/ Ebook $8.75) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634

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Fantasy Football for Winners: The Kick-Ass Guide to Dominating Your League from the World's Foremost Fantasologist ($ 14.95/ $9.95 Nook) by B.J. Rudell

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Fantasy Baseball for Beginners: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide ($10.95/Ebook $8.75 ) www.amazon.com/dp/0982428693

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Fantasy Soccer: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Soccer Players ($14.95/ Ebook $9.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/1936635070

http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/fantasy-football-sam-hendricks/1100639984

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Fantasy Hockey: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Hockey Players ($14.95/$9.95 Ebook) www.amazon.com/dp/1936635100

http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/fantasy-hockey-sam-hendricks/1106954324

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Fantasy Basketball Handbook: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Beginners and Experienced Players ($12.95/$9.95 Ebook) 
www.amazon.com/dp/1936635097

http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/fantasy-basketball-handbook-sam-hendricks/1107640391

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