Thursday, July 30, 2015

Draft Masters (DM), Draft Experts (DE) Tips Part Two

Okay the first 7 tips were on yesterday so go back to review them if this is all new to you. 

Just a quick reminder these leagues have different names at different venues (hence the title). For example, the leagues are called Draft Expert (DE) at the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) and Draft Champions (DC) over at the NFFC while the FFWC calls them Draft and Go Leagues. 

8) If you get a big name at QB (Luck, Rodgers, Peyton Manning) get his handcuff too. No other owner will want Brock Osweiler so you can wait and take him with your last pick. This will also mean you have 4 QBs instead of 3. However, the insurance policy is worth it.
Better to have insurance with a late (28th) round pick instead of a deep deep sleeper WR. Update from previous years-I am dubious about the handcuff QB for the big guns. I think the chances of them going down are so small these days with all the protection "don't touch the QB" rules that it is cost prohibitive.  Basically if you get a top QB early and he does go down for the season, your DM season is shot and there is no way to recover. In fact a better strategy may be to limit your QBs to just two IF you take a Andrew Luck or Aaron Rodgers in the 2nd or third round. You need another QB for the bye week and odd off performance but that is it. Save the QB3 slot for another sleeper at RB or WR. The QB3 with Luck or Rodgers will not be used much if ever. If I drafted Sam Bradford as my QB2 I will be sure to get Mark Sanchez as my QB4-that is good insurance. But it speaks to why I am avoiding Bradford-the reward can be high but the insurance you pay by taking Sanchez is your QB4 in case Bradford breaks down is too much of a cost IMHO. By the way Sanchez ADP is about round 18. 

9) If you get in a bind and have to skip a player from the rule of having three at QB, TE, K and DEF then skip the defense since they will never have an injury to take them out of the lineup.
So if you follow tip #8 above and do draft Peyton and then opt for Brock Osweiler with your 28th pick of the FFPC Draft you may have to skip your third defense since you are going to have 4 QBs.
Again I think a better place to skimp is at QB3 IF you draft Luck or Rodgers this year. 

10) Use discriminators when deciding between players in the same tier. Use bye weeks first then decide if they are a conservative or aggressive pick. A player who is suspended or injury prone is not a good thing for a DM team. Go with players who are hot/cold if paired up with a consistent player as well.

A later bye is another discriminator I use. My philosophy is that I want to get as many points as possible from them before an injury occurs. If he plays for only 5 weeks and one of those was his bye then I only had him for 4 weeks effectively. Now take the same player and the same injury but his bye week is in week 8. I had him for 5 weeks. I also think it is easier to recharge with a later bye week. If you have only played 3 games and then you get a break it does less good then if you have played 8 games and then get a week off.

11) Avoid Kickers and QBs who have job security issues. No reason to pick a QB who MAY be good if he starts but the IF is IF HE STARTS-Avoid HOU, BUF, NYJ and CLE QBs if possible. If he does not start, you have just shot yourself in the foot. Better to have an average starter than a good clipboard holder.  I say avoid all 4 of those QB situations and possibly the two rookies (Winston and Mariota) and draft 3 QBs from the 26 other teams!

12) You will have 32 defenses to choose from, kickers, however, are less sure as some are fighting to keep their job. Plan on only 26-28 kickers as really being draftable. So favor kickers over Defenses in the draft order simply because there are less reliable kickers. 

13) Draft a RBs handcuff since this is best ball. The best player automatically gets the start in this format. Grab RBs that are in a RBBC situation to monopolize the scores.
If you can get Joseph Randle and Darren McFadden then you have cornered the DAL RBs no matter who scores. Same goes for the TEN RB situation with Bishop Sankey and rookie David Cobb. Or Devonte Freeman and Tevin Coleman in ATL or Chris Simms and Doug Martin at TB.

14) RBs are more consistent with their points (other then the top WRs) so I target RBs early and draft more WRs late and hope that quantity trumps quality.

15) Research the league to determine how many of each position are drafted and when. Know when you need to take your 3rd QB, TE, K and Defense. For example, in the first three Pros vs Joes Drafts this year about 30 Def were drafted (last 25th rd) and 31 kickers (last in 27th or 28th rd). So you could afford to wait a little before getting your last one. I would take my 3rd kicker before the 3rd defense simply because there are only about 26-28 reliable kickers and you do not want to take one that may be suspended or hurt or fighting for his job. 

16) Do not wait too long to get handcuffs for stud RBs. Remember every other owner will be drafting quite a lot of RBs so chances are good they will take the one you need just as easily.

17) In the FFPC with a 28 player roster I like this team 3 QB/7 RB/9 WR/ 3 TE/ 3 K/3 DEF. Maybe even 8 RBs and 8 WRs if the RB8 is a needed handcuff. Expect Defenses to go in the 15th round and Kickers to go in rounds 19 and 20. And without a doubt the expanded roster (28 for FFPC and FFWC versus NFFC 26 man roster) means I like the 3 QB, TE, K and Defense play. If I dropped one of those it would be Defense since they cannot be lost to injury.

In the NFFC DC I like 3/6/8/3/3/3

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