Sunday, May 25, 2014

Draft Strategy 2014 Part 2 RBs

I have drafted in five fantasy football drafts so far the past two weeks.
Several have been Expert drafts for upcoming fantasy football magazines (Pro Forecast magazine both their PPR and Non-PPR leagues) and a mock for the Pro's vs Joe's FFPC League coming up this summer. No dead money teams in these leagues. Check out my previous post for more info and for the QB explanation.

Here are my observations/strategies going into the draft season based on some early Expert drafts and mock drafts. 

QB-WAIT ON QB. You can get a good QB1 in the later rounds and not give up too much over a QB5 or 6.  So wait and get your first QB AFTER everyone else has drafted their QB. This means drafting your first QB in round 10 or later in many cases. And often you have your Q10 or Q11 available because opinions differ on these mid range QBs. For more on the QB strategy/situation see my blog post from Saturday 24 May.

RBs-Arg! You can go several different ways with them this year. There is some depth there. But my opinion is the top 4 are gold and the rest of the top 12 are busts waiting to happen. Typcially every year only about 50% of the top 10 RBs produce and finish there. The other 50% are hurt or the team does not use them or for whatever reason they miss out. 

Here are my Top 10:
Note Does not change much for PPR or Non-PPR leagues-the best are the best.

1 Jamaal Charles-KC (6)
2 Adrian Peterson-MIN (10)
3 LeSean McCoy-PHI (7)
4 Matt Forte-CHI (9)
5 Eddie Lacey-GB (9)
6 Marshawn Lynch-SEA (4)
7 DeMarco Murray-DAL (11)
8 Arian Foster-HOU (10)
9 LeVeon Bell-PIT (12)

10 Doug Martin-TB (7)

I love the top 5 and then have reservations drafting any of the next 5 in the first round. So….if you have a top 6 pick and any of the top 5 RBs fall to you-draft him with confidence. After that I am taking a great WR in the first round. 

After that I like Zac Stacy (late 2nd rd) and C. J. Spiller in the middle of the pack (late 3rd rd) if available. If not I have no problem going WR-WR to start and even taking a TE with the third pick. Then stockpiling RBs with the next 3 picks!

There are RBs with a good chance to break out in the RB 20-29 range.

4th round-Ryan Mathews, Ben Tate
5th round-Chris Johnson, Trent Richardson, Rishard Jennings
6th round-Frank Gore, Knowshon Moreno, Toby Gerhart (I have seen upward movement on him into 5th rd lately)

My advice is go RB with an early pick if you can get one of the Top 5-if not go with a stud WR. Follow that up with another stud WR. If a great WR or TE is a steal in the 3rd do not hesitate to draft him knowing that there are starting RBs in the 4th-6th round.

Fantasy Football Tips (2nd Edition): 230 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($12.95)

Books from Extra Point Press:

Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95)

Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon

Fantasy Hockey: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Hockey Players ($14.95)

Fantasy Basketball Handbook: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Beginners and Experienced Players ($12.95)

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