Thursday, May 29, 2014

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy 2014 TEs

I have drafted in five fantasy football drafts so far the past two weeks.
Several have been Expert drafts for upcoming fantasy football magazines (Pro Forecast magazine both their PPR and Non-PPR leagues) and a mock for the Pro's vs Joe's FFPC League coming up this summer. No dead money teams in these leagues. Check out my previous posts for more info and for the QB, RB and WR detailed  explanation.

Here are my observations/strategies going into the draft season based on some early Expert drafts and mock drafts. 

QB-WAIT ON QB. You can get a good QB1 in the later rounds and not give up too much over a QB5 or 6.  So wait and get your first QB AFTER everyone else has drafted their QB. This means drafting your first QB in round 10 or later in many cases. And often you have your Q10 or Q11 available because opinions differ on these mid range QBs. For more on the QB strategy/situation see my blog post from Saturday 24 May. For RB details see the post on Sunday 25 May.

RBs-Top 4 are gold and the rest of the top 12 are busts waiting to happen. Typcially every year only about 50% of the top 10 RBs produce and finish there.

Here are my Top 4:
Note Does not change much for PPR or Non-PPR leagues-the best are the best.
1 Jamaal Charles-KC (6)
2 Adrian Peterson-MIN (10)
3 LeSean McCoy-PHI (7)
4 Matt Forte-CHI (9)

I love the top 4 and then have reservations drafting any of the next 6 in the first round. So….if you have a top 6 pick and any of the top 4 RBs fall to you-draft him with confidence. After that I am taking a great WR in the first round. 

My advice is go RB with an early pick if you can get one of the Top 5-if not go with a stud WR. Follow that up with another stud WR. If a great WR or TE is a steal in the 3rd do not hesitate to draft him knowing that there are starting RBs in the 4th-6th round.

WR-I love the Top 10 WRs and draft them over the RBs other than the Top 4 (Charles, AP, McCoy and Forte). 

WR-WR to start is tempting with the 5th pick or later in most drafts. With a WR-WR start the next 4 rounds are catching up on RBs and a TE. That means stockpiling WRs in the mid to late rounds. Last year 23 WRs had over 1000 yards receiving. There is value at WR in the mid rounds. 

WRs are valued about the same as RBs this year (especially in PPR leagues) due to the proliferation of the passing game in the NFL. 

 I love Michael Floyd, Kendall Wright and even Reuben Randle if he keeps falling.

 TE- Jimmy Graham is heads and shoulders above the rest and deserves to go in the mid to late first round in most drafts. Gronk is a question mark with his injury history but he is worth the risk as a TE2. Having said that it is really hard to pull the trigger on him there. Again my mind thinks he is worth the risk, my heart just is not in it. The top 7 TEs should all be good to go and then about 10 after that are good bets to maybe break into the top 7 by the end of the year. What I am saying is you can wait on TE (unless in a start two TE or TE friendly system like the FFPC). If you cannot get a Top 7 TE at a reasonable draft spot do not panic-you can get one of the other guys and still have a decent chance of good numbers and if not one should be on the waiver wire-especailly in Non-PPR leagues. But if you can get Graham with say the 6th or later pick after the top 4 RBs and Calvin Johnson are gone I would draft him in the first ahead of the other quality RBs or WRs. 

 Sleepers I like: Heath Miller, Ladarius Green, Rookies Eric Ebron and Jace Amaro and deep sleeper Levine Toliolo (ATL).  







Fantasy Football Tips (2nd Edition): 230 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($12.95) www.amazon.com/dp/1936635151
Books from Extra Point Press:







Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650

http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/fantasy-football-guidebook-sam-hendricks/1008633837


Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634




Fantasy Hockey: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Hockey Players ($14.95) www.amazon.com/dp/1936635100




Fantasy Basketball Handbook: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Beginners and Experienced Players ($12.95) www.amazon.com/dp/1936635097



http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/fantasy-basketball-handbook-sam-hendricks/1107640391

Fantasy Football Tips (2nd Edition): 230 Ways to Win through Player Rankings, Cheat Sheets and Better Drafting ($12.95) www.amazon.com/dp/1936635151
Books from Extra Point Press:







Fantasy Football Guidebook (2nd Edition): Your Comprehensive Guide to Playing Fantasy Football ($19.95) http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428650

http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/fantasy-football-guidebook-sam-hendricks/1008633837


Fantasy Football Basics: The Ultimate "How to" Guide for Beginners available ($10.95) at Amazon http://www.amazon.com/dp/0982428634




Fantasy Hockey: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Fantasy Hockey Players ($14.95) www.amazon.com/dp/1936635100




Fantasy Basketball Handbook: The Ultimate "How-to" Guide for Beginners and Experienced Players ($12.95) www.amazon.com/dp/1936635097



http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/fantasy-basketball-handbook-sam-hendricks/1107640391
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